Cubs Cafe

Young Players Scare Me

2007-06-08T19:08:00.000-05:00

I watched the Rule 4 draft yesterday on ESPN 2 and it made me realize two things. First, the baseball draft isn’t quite as exciting as the NFL or NBA drafts. For the most part, nobody has heard of most of the people being drafted. Of course, there is a small group of people who follow HS and college baseball players, but overall, the players being drafted are a mystery.

The second thing I realized is a little difficult to talk about. Quite honestly, it’s a little embarrassing. Even so, the truth is that young players scare me. I never really realized it before, but I don’t like the idea of playing young, unproven players.

For instance, Felix Pie’s potential excites me, but I’m more comfortable slowly working him into the line-up than I am handing him the starting CF job. Let him pinch hit, pinch run, or go into the game as a late inning defensive replacement. Ease him into the line-up. After he proves himself in limited duty, then consider giving him the starting job.

I’m not saying that the way I feel is right. In fact, as I said, I’m a little embarrassed to feel this way. Until yesterday, I didn’t think I felt this way. But when I think about how I would like to see the Cubs build their team, I want a proven veteran at every position.

If every team followed my ideas, players like Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and Tim Linecum would be the budding superstars that they are. They would be either riding the pines or making a name for themselves in AAA. Obviously, not a good idea.

My head knows that teams need to play their prospects to and give them a chance to shine. My head also knows that from a business standpoint, every team needs good, inexpensive players to keep their payroll in check. But my heart is afraid of young players. What if they don’t pan out? I know, I know. I’m trying…

Gary Sheffield is a Racist

2007-06-05T09:45:00.000-05:00

Gary Sheffield is an idiot.

In a recent interview with GQ magazine (as reported on ESPN.com), the Tigers loud mouth opined why he believes more blacks are not playing baseball. After much thought and research, the esteemed Mr. Sheffield came to this conclusion: Blacks can not be controlled as easily as Latinos.

With a monumental chip on his shoulder, the man who never stops talking said:

"Where I'm from, you can't control us. You might get a guy to do it that way for a while because he wants to benefit, but in the end, he is going to go back to being who he is. And that's a person that you're going to talk to with respect, you're going to talk to like a man.

"These are the things my race demands. So, if you're equally good as this Latin player, guess who's going to get sent home? I know a lot of players that are home now can outplay a lot of these guys."

In just two simple paragraphs, Sheffield insulted blacks, he insulted Latinos, and he proved once and for all that he is a fool.

First, speaking for his entire race, the man that never met a microphone he didn’t like says that to be a man, you must be uncontrollable. Real men, according to Sheffield, do not conform to the norms of the workplace. They do not take direction from above. They demand respect and get it by being uncontrollable.

Sheffield goes on to prove his point by saying that he knows a lot of blacks who are MLB-caliber baseball players, but who choose to sit at home rather than be controlled (and significantly enriched). According to Gary’s logic, these players are better men than he is because he is being controlled as an MLB player.

Of course, his comments are obviously insulting to Latinos, who are apparently willing to do anything, including sign under market contracts, just for the privilege of playing baseball in America. Never mind that some of the highest paid players in MLB are Latinos. The facts don’t bother Gary. Why should they bother you?

Another fact lost on Gary is that in the NBA, the league that has the most control over its players, blacks are the overwhelmingly dominant race. Apparently you can be a man and still be controlled if you play basketball, but not baseball.

Over the years, I have tried to like Sheffield. Whenever I’ve seen him play, he has played hard and has had a burning desire to win. I’ve also always been amazed by his bat speed. But you can’t make stupid, racist comments like he made and still get the respect of the fans.

Can you imagine if a white player (maybe John Rocker) had said the things that Sheffield said? He would be crucified in the media and would likely even be suspended and/or fined. But in this case, I guess it is viewed as just Gary being Gary.

Kerry Wood and What Could Have Been

2007-06-04T15:56:00.000-05:00

Kerry Wood was going to be the savior. He was every great pitcher rolled into one. He was going to be the ace of the Cubs staff for years to come. Baseball pundits marveled at what the Cubs could accomplish with Wood and Prior heading up a rotation that also included a promising young right hander named Carlos Zambrano. As Cubs fans, we were on the verge of truly halcyon days.

Of course, the halcyon days never came. Wood and Prior kept company on the DL and Zambrano is currently in the midst of a meltdown, perhaps triggered by his own injury. And for Cubs fans, all of the years of futility just go on and on.

Looking at Wood today, it can be easy to forget the promise he held as a 20-year old fireballer. It can be easy to forget that at one time, he was the most promising pitcher in all of baseball. It can also be far too easy to forget that Wood is just a man. At one time, we expected Kerry Wood to be Superman. As it turned out, he had a super arm, but it was connected to an ordinary man who had physical limitations and was subject to the same laws of physics as everyone else.

Buzz Bissinger has written an excellent article about Kerry Wood and his struggles and his disappointing career. It makes for good, albeit sad, reading.

Blow Up The Team...Or Not

2007-06-02T12:59:00.000-05:00

As the Cubs season continues to circle the drain and it seems like things just can’t get any worse, things do get worse. In the midst of a loss to the Braves, Carlos Zambrano and Michael Barrett decided to spice things up with a fight that left Barrett with two black eyes and a split lip, and both players a little lighter in the wallet. It was a stupid display by two guys with more emotion than brains.

Predictably, the Cubs blogosphere started calling for a trade of one or both of the players. Then the knee-jerkers started calling for a wholesale dismantling of the club including trades of Derrick Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano. I wasn’t surprised to hear people call for the team to be blown up and for the Cubs to start over, but I was surprised at the number of normally reasonable people that joined in the chorus.

So I decided to give some serious thought to the calls for wholesale changes. What if the Cubs were to trade away their best players and start over? Would it make sense? Certainly, it’s going to be difficult to field a team that is going to do worse (or much worse) than the current crop of players. So, is the call for blowing up the team legitimate?

In a word, no.

If you’ve read previous articles on this fine blog, then you know that I am in favor of making changes. In order to improve the team, I feel the Cubs need a reliable bullpen arm, a good hitting SS, and perhaps an outfielder (CF or RF) with some pop in his bat. In order to get those pieces, I can see the Cubs trading any or all of Zambrano, Jacque Jones, Matt Murton, Ceasar Izturis, Cliff Floyd, and Scott Eyre. Throw in some minor leaguers if you have to. But parting company with the nucleus of the team – Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano – doesn’t make any sense.

Think about it. If you trade Lee, are you going to get a player (or even two players) that will equal his offensive production and fielding prowess? I don’t think so. And if you don’t, why would you trade him?

Ramirez and Soriano may not have the defensive upside that Lee has, but will you be able to replace their offensive production? Don’t be fooled by Soriano’s slow start. He was a 40/40 man last year. He hasn’t forgotten how to hit.

So the question is, will the Cubs be better as a team if they trade Lee, Ramirez and Soriano? No they won’t, unless you are in favor of a long rebuilding process.

The only way you can justify trading any of the Cubs big three is if your plan is to build the team to be a winner three or four years down the road. In that case, the Cubs can use Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano to attract a lot of really good young prospects. The Cubs could load up on young players with the hopes of building a team that can win in the future. I’m not in favor of such a plan, but it is a possibility.

The Cubs as currently constructed are not that far away from being a contender, especially in the NL Central. A couple of key moves and the Cubs are right back in it. I completely understand the frustration of watching this $110 million team struggle through the season, but dismantling the team is not the answer.

I Don't Feel Like Writing, But...

2007-05-30T20:55:00.000-05:00

I’ve been really busy the past week and I’m a little under the weather right now, so I don’t feel much like writing…especially about the Cubs.

The team has underperformed pretty much all year and things don’t seem to be getting better. When they were doing poorly at the end of April, it was easy to say, “it’s only the first month.” But now we are two months into the year -- more than 25% of the season is gone -- and there have been no signs of improvement.

I’m already starting to concoct trades to get this team turned around. I wrote previously about the wisdom of trading players like Carlos Zambrano, Matt Murton, and Jacque Jones.

In a future post, I want to examine possible trade partners and analyze the Cubs needs now and in the future. For now, I just want to say that I’m disappointed in what the Cubs have done so far this year. I know that’s not breaking news, but I feel a little better saying it.

Cubs Salvage One in San Diego

2007-05-25T14:38:00.000-05:00

The Cubs salvaged a win last night in the final game of their three game series in San Diego. Jason Marquis pitched a gem, giving up just one run and five hits in seven innings, but he ended up taking a no decision due to a lack of offensive production by the Cubs.

In the sixth inning, the Cubs had a terrific scoring opportunity when Alfonso Soriano led off the inning with a triple. However, the next three batters – Mark DeRosa, Derrick Lee, and Aramis Ramirez – each struck out. It seems like this has happened over and over again this year. I was shocked to learn this morning that the Cubs have the second highest BA in the NL with RISP (the Mets are first) and the highest BA in the NL with RISP and two outs. How is this possible? Thankfully, the Cubs came through with two runs in the ninth to win the game.

The Cubs are now 21-24, in second place in the NL Central, six games behind the Brewers. They open a three game series tonight against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Ted Lilly (4-2, 2.69 ERA) takes on the Dodgers’ Derek Lowe (4-5, 3.84 ERA).

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I mentioned in an earlier post that the Cubs should think about trading Carlos Zambrano in order to add some pieces to the team that will help them win this year and into the future. I still feel that is a good idea, but I may have been off base suggesting that the Cubs could use Andruw Jones.

Jayson Stark has written a new book entitled “The Stark Truth: The most overrated and underrated players in baseball history.” ESPN.com has published an excerpt from the book where Stark makes the case that Andruw Jones is the most overrated center fielder in the history of the game. His argument is convincing and I am no longer campaigning for Jones to patrol CF for the Cubs. The article makes for interesting reading.

What To Do About Z?

2007-05-22T10:24:00.000-05:00

Former MLB pitcher Carlos Gomez has some interesting observations about Carlos Zambrano’s mechanics. In a nutshell, Gomez points out that Z’s arm angle is significantly lower this year than it was in 2005, his velocity is down, and he speculates that the changes are due to an injury to Z’s shoulder. It makes for interesting reading.

In my mind, the question now becomes, what to do about Zambrano? He and the Cubs were on the verge of signing a big, multi-year contract. The only thing that stood in the way of the contract was the pending sale of the team. Now, Z has had a bad start to the 2007 season (4-4, 5.61 ERA) and he is exhibiting signs that he may be injured. Should the Cubs still sign him to a multi-year deal or should they cut their losses and get what they can in a trade?

I know that it is borderline sacrilege to talk about trading Z, but I’m starting to think it may be the best thing for the team. Even when he was healthy, his velocity was up, and he was a Cy Young candidate, Z was prone to emotional implosions. Considering his youth, it was easy to write off these outbursts to immaturity. But over the past few years, the outbursts really haven’t gotten any better. In many peoples’ eyes, Z has gone from an emotional young man to a head case.

Now, add in questions about his health and his ability to pitch effectively into the future and it starts to make sense that Z is worth more long term to the team as trade bait than as the supposed ace of the staff. Even with the question marks surrounding Z, there are teams out there that would be willing to take a chance on him.

Three teams that come to mind are the Yankees, Mets, and Braves. The Yankees are in desperate need of starting pitching. Even with the addition of Roger Clemens, the Yankees are still two or three starting pitchers short.

The Mets pitching has been pretty good this year, but they will likely lose Tom Glavine at the end of the year. Z could be viewed by the Mets as a replacement for their ace. Plus, although their young pitchers have pitched well this year, I’ve got to believe that the Mets brass is just waiting for these pitchers to come back down to earth. Adding Z could solidify their rotation this year and into the future.

At the moment, the Braves have John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, and some other guys. They want another proven pitcher and they have some nice parts to trade in exchange for said pitcher.

I don’t know what is going to happen. The fear is always if you hang on to the struggling player (in this case, Z), he’s never going to recover. On the other hand, if you trade him, he’ll not only recover, but he’ll come back and kill you in the future. But looking at the situation objectively (or at least as objectively as I can), I think the Cubs may be better off trading Z than signing him and hoping for the best.

Should the Cubs Trade Matt Murton?

2007-05-21T21:33:00.000-05:00

A lot of talk out in the Cubs blogosphere has centered around the potential trade of one of the Cubs outfielders. At the moment, the Cubs have Alfonso Soriano, Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd, Matt Murton and Angel Pagan in the outfield, and Felix Pie is in Iowa just waiting for his chance to rejoin the big team.

Obviously, Soriano is not going to be traded. Likewise, Pie is being looked to as the Cubs centerfielder (or right fielder) of the future, so he’s likely not going any where.

That leaves Jones, Floyd, Murton, and Pagan. Because of the Cubs lack of left-handed bats, it really doesn’t make sense to trade Jones or Floyd. Of course, the idea of trading Jones has been floated in the past and there hasn’t been much interest.

Angel Pagan is a switch-hitter, but at the moment he is viewed as a 4th outfielder/pinch runner/pinch hitter type of player. If the Cubs were to trade Pagan, they likely would not get much in return.

That leaves Matt Murton as the most likely outfielder to be traded. He’s young, hits for average, has some power (not as much as you’d like to see in a corner outfielder), has average to above average speed, is a decent (but not spectacular) fielder, and has an okay arm. He’s not a superstar, but he is solid.

Of course, one of the knocks on Murton is that he is only a left fielder. He can play right in a pinch, but he really doesn’t have the arm of a right fielder.

The argument to not trade Murton has been that he can hit and he is inexpensive. Others have said that his power is developing and that the Cubs will be sorry if they let him go. Of course, this is one of the problems with Cubs fans. They fall in love with every decent player that puts on a Cubs uniform and they only want to trade lower rung players. In addition, they want Jim Hendry to get a superstar in exchange for the roster filler.

I agree with those that believe Murton has the make up to become a good (not great) major leaguer. But I also believe that he is one of the few players on the Cubs that 1) is expendable, 2) other teams would have an interest in, and 3) could fetch a player in return that could help the Cubs win.

At this point, I should say who the Cubs could get in exchange for Murton. Honestly, I don’t know. I’ve heard rumors involving San Diego sending Scott Linebrink to the Cubs for Murton. I’ve also heard speculation of Murton going to Philadelphia in exchange for Jon Leiber. There’s no doubt that the Cubs could use some help in the bullpen as well as a proven 5th starter, but I don’t know if either of these trades would work.

In my opinion, the Cubs need to make a long-term decision about their outfield. At the moment, the Cubs outfield is a mish-mash of players. They acquired Soriano without giving a lot of thought to where he was going to play. Jacque Jones is a capable right fielder (with a weak arm) who is currently miscast in CF. He’s doing a decent job there, but CF is not his position. Cliff Floyd was signed as an afterthought. The Cubs didn’t have a place to play him, but they signed him anyway. Plus, he is a DH masquerading as an everyday outfielder.

We know that Soriano is now a fixture in left field. That leaves the other two OF positions to fill. One of those positions will be filled by Felix Pie. Most people have penciled him in as the CF, but I would suggest that he set his sites on RF. He has the best arm on the Cubs and is developing his power.

That leaves CF. I’d like to see the Cubs acquire a guy not just to fill CF, but who will be a fixture in CF. I’ve heard Torii Hunter’s name thrown out there. He wouldn’t be my choice.

But what about Andruw Jones? He’ll be a FA after this year. Perhaps a deal can be made with the Braves. As an aside, if the Cubs can make a deal with Atlanta, perhaps it could include Braves catching prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The Braves are currently looking for additional starting pitching. Would they be interested in Carlos Zambrano? Before you start yelling, think about it for a minute. Just like Jones, Z is going to be a FA at the end of the year, so the Cubs may be losing him anyway. At first blush, trading Z seems crazy, but he’s not pitching that well right now and there are options to replace him. I won’t go into the options right now, but there are options.

Another possibility for CF is Rocco Baldelli of the D-Rays. The price would not be as high to get Baldelli as it would be to get Andruw Jones (and Salty), but Baldelli would be a great addition to the Cubs.

There are other possibilities as well. My only purpose in suggesting any of this is to encourage a long-term approach to rebuilding the Cubs OF. I don’t know for sure who the Cubs could get in exchange for Murton or Jacque Jones, but who ever it is, I hope they don’t just approach any changes as just patches. The Cubs need to develop a long range plan and then follow the plan.

BTW, building a plan for the future doesn’t mean giving up on this year. Any plan should improve the team now as well as into the future.

Tough Loses Followed by Big Wins

2007-05-19T18:12:00.000-05:00

Coming off of a horrible road trip to the East Coast, I started to think that maybe all of the naysayers were right about the Cubs. Maybe they are no better than a .500. Maybe they are flawed and poorly constructed. Maybe this year is going to be another disappointment. Well, shame on me.

After dropping 2-of-3 to the Phillies and 3-of-4 to the Mets (including a 9th inning implosion by the bullpen in game four of the series), the Cubs came home to take on the White Sox at Wrigley. The Sox always play the Cubs tough, regardless of the team’s records, so I wasn’t too excited about the series.

In game one, the Cubs looked good and got help from an unlikely sourse: Angel Pagan. Pagan went 3-5 including a two-run triple and Ted Lilly pitched good enough to get the win. The Cubs went on to win the game 6-3.

Today, the Cubs won a roller coaster of a game 11-6. The best thing about the game in my opinion was that just kept fighting back. The Sox would take the lead, then the Cubs would come back. The win was capped off with a grand slam by pinch hitter Derrick Lee, who has been having trouble with his neck and was not supposed to play this series.

The last two wins are important for a couple of reasons. First, and most obviously, they improve the Cubs record to 20-21 and for the moment moves the Cubs into a tie for second place with the Astros.

But even more importantly, teams can sometimes use wins like the Cubs have gotten in the past two days to build chemistry and possibly build a winning streak. Just as emotional losses can drive a stake into the heart of a team, an emotional win (or two) can motivate and energize a team.

In the very least, the Cubs are going to win 2-out-of-3 from the Sox and they may sweep the series. And hopefully, the Cubs will be able to use the series to build some momentum as they head to the West Coast.

Power Outage Hits the Cubs

2007-05-14T11:30:00.000-05:00

The Cubs salvaged the third and final game in Philadelphia yesterday by a score of 4-1. Ted Lilly pitched another masterful game and Ryan Dempster notched his eighth save of the year. The Cubs are now 17-18 and are tied for second in the division with Houston, seven games behind the Brewers.

The Cubs offense failed to hit a HR again yesterday. Three of the most feared hitters in the NL, Alfonso Soriano, Derrick Lee, and Aramis Ramirez have combined to hit only 14 HRs in 35 games. And that stat is a little misleading considering that Ramirez has eight of those 14 HRs. Soriano has four and DLee only two.

Why can’t the Cubs hit HRs this year? The trio of Ramirez, Soriano and Lee are projected to hit only 65 HRs this year. That breaks down to:

Ramirez 37 HRs
Soriano 19 HRs
Lee 9 HRs

Actually, things aren’t as bad as they may seem at first blush. If history is any indication (and it usually is), Soriano and Lee will turn the power on soon. As far as I’m concerned, the sooner the better, but by the end of the year they should have 25-35 HR each. Ramirez will likely stay on pace for 35-40 HRs.

Considering that two of the Cubs three big power hitters aren’t showing much power so far this year, you would think that the Cubs would really be suffering as a team in the HR department. However, they actually aren’t doing too bad.

As a team, the Cubs have hit 32 HRs which is 17th best out of 30 teams. The Reds and Brewers (both NL Central Division rivals) have each hit 48 HRs so far this year to lead all of MLB. That’s not so bad considering the HR struggles of Soriano and Lee. By the end of the year, I would expect the team to be much higher on the list.

It’s not all bad news for Soriano and Lee. For instance, Lee is hitting .390 with 17 doubles and 21 RBIs. Soriano is hitting .312 with 13 doubles. Unfortunately, Soriano has only contributed eight RBIs so far this season.

I’m disappointed in the way the team has played so far this year and the lack of power shown by Soriano and Lee just accentuates that point. However, I still cling to the hope that it is early and that both players will turn on the power soon. I also have to believe that HR or not, Soriano is going to start driving in some runs.

Dusty Baker is Complaining Again

2007-05-12T09:53:00.000-05:00

I didn’t plan on writing anything about Dusty Baker. As far as I’m concerned, the former Cubs manager is history and there’s really nothing left to say about him. But Baker is complaining again about his time in Chicago and I just can’t let it go.

In an article by Teddy Greenstein in the Chicago Tribune, Baker says:

“At this point I’m not ready to [call a game at Wrigley]. I don’t need any more abuse, you know what I mean? I was booed and jeered enough.”

Does Baker think he’s the first person to ever be booed for doing a lousy job? And does he think the booing is somehow only limited to Chicago?

I’ve grown tired of Baker’s complaining about Chicago. In the article, Baker claims he did the best he could as manager of the Cubs. Anyone that watched the games and followed Baker’s exploits know better than that. Baker gave up on the season in 2006 after Derrick Lee broke his wrist and he allowed the rest of the team to give up as well. He did nothing to pull the team together. He did nothing to motivate the team. He just gave up.

It would be a lot easier to move on and put Baker in the past if he wasn’t still showing up and playing the victim. He’s even complaining about how the Cubs went out and spent money on players after his departure. Again, it’s all about Baker and even after he’s gone, he’s still the victim.

Baker is not the first manager to get fired. But he is the first that I can remember that keeps complaining about how poorly he was treated during his tenure long after he is gone. I would respect him a lot more if he would just put the past in the past, wish the Cubs well, and move on.

Marquis is Masterful

2007-05-09T21:28:00.000-05:00

Jason Marquis pitched a terrific game tonight. He pitched a three hit, complete game shut out, striking out five, walking none, and lowering his ERA to 1.70. The timing of Marquis’ pitching masterpiece was good considering the Cubs offense provided almost no run support.

The only run for the Cubs came on a lead-off HR in the first inning by Alfonso Soriano. Aramis Ramirez (2-3) and Matt Murton (2-4) each contributed two hits to the Cubs eight hit “attack.” On the down side, after his HR, Soriano struck out three times. Also, Jacque Jones had a rough night, going 0-4 and stranding 9 base runners.

The Cubs play the rubber game of their three game series with Pittsburgh tomorrow. The Pirates Paul Maholm (1-4, 5.51 ERA) will take on Carlos Zambrano (3-2, 5.80 ERA).

Did Dusty Baker Commit Pitcher Abuse?

2007-05-08T11:50:00.000-05:00

Gene Wojciechowski from ESPN.com has written an interesting article about Mark Prior. Woj talks about the year Prior had in 2003 and his long, painful fall to a near-permanent spot on the DL. He also talks about all of the questions people had about Prior’s heart.

Probably the most interesting part about the article is when Woj talks about the role Dusty Baker played in over using Prior and ultimately damaging his arm. In the past, I’ve heard people condemn Baker for the way he used Prior and I’ve heard other people claim that there is no such thing as pitcher abuse. Woj does a good job of explaining how Baker used Prior in 2003 and what impact that might have had on Prior’s shoulder.

The ESPN.com article can be found here.

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The Cardinals announced that their ace, Chris Carpenter will have to undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow and will miss at least three more months. The defending World Series Champions are already finding the going difficult this year and losing Carpenter for any amount of time doesn’t help their chances.

The Cardinals entered the season with a rather suspect starting rotation to begin with. Carpenter was their only “sure thing.” With him out, the team will have to rely on a pitching staff that doesn’t have one pitcher that has even one year of experience starting. Looks like it’s going to be a long year for the Cards.

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Roger Clemens will not be returning to Houston. That’s big news for the Cubs because the feeling has been that if the Astros can just stay in the race, Clemens could put them over the top. Now that’s not going to happen and the Cubs won't have to face Clemens.

Clemens announced his return to the NY Yankees yesterday. He will receive a pro-rated one year contract worth $28 million. Clemens says it’s not about the money. Maybe that’s true, although he’s getting a lot of it.

For Clemens, I think it is the stage. Clemens loves the spotlight and there is no bigger stage in baseball than Yankee Stadium.

Clemens also understands the importance of run support. In Houston, Clemens had to win games on his own. He received very little support from the offense. In New York, Clemens will get great run support. The Yankees are leading the majors in runs scored, despite the fact that they are one game below .500 and are trailing the Red Sox in the AL East by 5.5 games

Why didn’t Clemens join the Red Sox? They would have paid the money, they put up lots of runs, and they are winning. In my opinion, the main reason is that Clemens would have had to share the stage with Dice-K, Curt Schilling, and the rest of Boston’s excellent pitching staff. Boston is a big stage, there’s no doubt about that. Red Sox baseball is a quasi-religion in Boston. But no matter how big the stage, Clemens would still have had to share it. Why be one of the actors on the stage when you can go to New York and be the star.

Which explains the final reason Clemens signed with the Yankees: he’s needed. The Yankees are scoring plenty of runs, but their pitching has been horrible. Injuries and slow starts have sabotaged the team’s efforts so far this year. Clemens will do his part. If things don’t turn around for New York, it won’t be The Rocket’s fault. The Yankees were already losing when he got there. But if the Yankees do start to win and make it to the post season, Roger will be a savior.

For Clemens, signing with the Yankees is a no lose proposition. He makes a lot of money, he’s needed, he’s the leading man on a big stage, and he has the chance to be a savior. Not a bad gig.

For another perspective on Clemens leaving Houston, read Richard Justice’s views on the subject here.

SWEEP!!! v.2

2007-05-07T11:42:00.000-05:00

Okay, the Cubs actually did sweep the series this time against Washington. I kind of got it wrong last time. In addition to winning five in a row, the Cubs have won 8 out of their last 10 and are playing very good baseball.

Of course, not everyone is happy. The blogosphere was ripe with criticism for the way Lou Piniella has managed recently. Lou has used the majority of his bench and bullpen in a few games. In yesterday’s victory over the Nationals, Piniella used all of his bullpen except Rocky Cherry and everyone on the bench except Henry Blanco. All of the moves left Daryle Ward in LF and Alfonso Soriano at 2B for the final inning. Some posters were outraged Piniella would allow so much defensive liability when the game is on the line. My reaction: So what.

First, we’re not talking about running amputees out to play the field (my apologies to any amputees reading this). Both Ward and Soriano are professional baseball players. True, neither player is the best fielder at the position they were playing, but they are both capable of fielding the ball.

Second, and this goes to a larger point I discussed last year when Dusty was shirking his management responsibilities, the manager is paid to manage the team. Piniella is just doing what he was hired to do. He is sending a subtle message to his players. The message: “We’ll do whatever it takes to win. I don’t care about your feelings. I don’t care about your preferred position. I don’t care how long you’ve been in the big leagues. If it will help us win, I’ll do it.”

In one sense, Piniella’s hand was forced. When pitchers come in from the bullpen and can’t find the strike zone, Piniella can’t just let them give up walk after walk. He has to make moves that give the team the best chance for a victory. So using up the bullpen is partly the result of the bullpen not getting the job done.

In a larger sense, Piniella is working on changing the culture of the team. Dusty didn’t like to show up his players or cause too many waves. The resulting message was, it’s more important to be “respectful” than to win. This message just reinforced the culture of the Cubs that winning wasn’t the most important thing. Pinella is trying to change that in both obvious and subtle ways.

If Piniella starts emptying his bench and using up his bullpen every day, then maybe I’ll get concerned. But the fact that he only did it a couple of times (not to mention that it worked) doesn’t concern me in the least.

Cubs Move Into Second in NL Central

2007-05-05T09:35:00.000-05:00

With yesterday’s 6-4 victory over the Washington Nationals, the Cubs improved their record to 13-14 and moved into second place in the NL Central. They are currently 5 games behind league leading Milwaukee.

But in the all important Wild Card race, the Cubs are just 4.5 games behind Atlanta and New York, who are tied for the lead in the NL East.

Of course, I’m just goofing around looking at the Wild Card standings this early in the year, but it just goes to show how ridiculous the naysayers are who write the Cubs off after each loss. The season is long and the Cubs have only played 27 of their 162 games so far. There’s a long way to go and a lot can happen.

With a win today, the Cubs can climb to the .500 mark. Rich Hill (3-1, 1.77 ERA) will take on Washington’s John Patterson (1-4, 6.44 ERA).

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Ron Santo is back at work as the Cubs radio broadcast analyst. Santo was hospitalized 10-days ago with an irregular heartbeat. The Cubs former third baseman reports that he is feeling fine and does not plan on cutting back on his broadcast duties.

SWEEP!!!

2007-05-03T16:39:00.000-05:00

Note: Even though I'm wrong, I'm going to leave this post up as testament to the fact that I have become too dependent on the Internet. The fact is that the Cubs won 2 out of 3 from the Pirates. They did not get the sweep. I based my information on the the Cubs.com page, which listed the Cubs winning all three games. I went back to look at the schedule and it shows the truth. Despite what the Cubs.com page says, the Cubs lost the first game of the series 3-2. Please don't be sucked in by the Internet. She is a cruel mistress...

The Cubs swept the Pirates in three games to surge into third place in the NL Central. The three game sweep improved the Cubs record to 12-14, just half a game behind second place Cincinnati and five games behind division leading Milwaukee.

The Cubs offense came alive against the Pirates highly regarded pitching staff, scoring 23 runs in the series. The Cubs pitching staff wasn’t bad, giving up 13 runs in three games to the Pirates, but they did give up six runs in each of the first two games of the series.

The Cubs have an off day today and will take on the Washington Nationals at Wrigley beginning Friday. The goal this weekend is to move into second place and then start winning series. The Brewers aren’t going to keep winning 70% of their games, so the Cubs need to concentrate on playing good baseball, getting above .500 and letting the Brewers come back to them.

Cards Pitcher Killed in Auto Accident

2007-04-29T11:14:00.000-05:00

The St. Louis Cardinals announced today that relief pitcher Josh Hancock was killed last night in a traffic accident. The 29-year old pitcher was part of the Cardinals 2006 World Series winning team and was a key part to their bullpen.

In 2002, Cardinals pitcher Darryl Kile died prior to a game against the Cubs in Chicago. Kile suffered from coronary atherosclerosis, a narrowing of the arteries supplying the heart.

Tonight’s game between the Cubs and Cards has been postponed. A make-up date has not been announced. My thoughts and prayers are with Hancock's family and teammates.

A Sad History at Short

2007-04-27T17:01:00.000-05:00

One website that I don’t turn to nearly enough is Bugs and Cranks (www.bugsandcranks.com). Their content is both entertaining and informative.

Earlier this week, Adam Goodson at Bug and Cranks posted a retrospective of Cubs shortstops over the past 15 years. In some respects, it makes for depressing reading. The Cubs have had some really bad shortstops during that time. On the other hand, it's exciting reading because it points out that there's really nowhere for the Cubs to go at the SS position but up.

I’ll let you read the names and analysis in Adam’s article, but here’s what the stats have looked like at the shortstop position for the Cubs over the past decade-and-a-half:

1992 .228 , 7 HR, 61 RBI
1993 .287, 4 HR, 54 RBI
1994 .278, 11 HR, 35 RBI
1995 .296, 14 HR, 69 RBI
1996 .211, 1 HR, 12 RBI
1997 .284, 9 HR, 41 RBI
1998 .219, 4 HR, 26 RBI
1999 .272, 15 HR, 43 RBI
2000 .276, 11 HR, 56 RBI
2001 .290, 10 HR, 66 RBI
2002 .248, 18 HR, 61 RBI
2003 .228, 20 HR, 59 RBI
2004 .266, 7 HR, 50 RBI
2005 .274, 9 HR, 54 RBI
2006 .254, 2 HR, 24 RBI

Of course, all of this may be moot considering that Lou Piniella has decided to insert Ryan Theriot into the SS position. Theriot was a SS during his college days and played quite a bit of SS in the minors before switching to second base. He’s been hitting well and he likely won’t field any worse than Cesar Izturis has so far this year. Theriot won’t put up big power numbers, but that won’t be anything new for Cubs shortstops. Over 15 years, the SS position has averaged just 9.5 homeruns per season.

I have lobbied for the past couple of years for the Cubs to get an elite SS. Someone like Alex Rodriguez or Miguel Tejada comes to mind. When they started spending money, my hope was that they would spend money on a SS. So far that hasn’t happened, but rumor has it that ARod will be opting out of his contract at the end of the year and is interested in moving back to SS. Just a thought…

Adam's entire article can be found here.

The Doctor and The Pitcher

2007-04-26T09:13:00.000-05:00

Dr. Joseph Hecht, MD (AKA “Cubster”), the resident orthopedic surgeon over at The Cub Reporter has posted an excellent analysis of Mark Prior’s surgery. In the past, Dr. Hecht has been somewhat critical of Prior because he constantly has health issues, but invariably the doctors don’t find anything wrong with him. Considering the outcome of Prior’s surgery, I think Dr. Hecht may be changing his attitude toward Prior.

Dr. Hecht had this to say about the long overdue diagnosis:

“My comment and questions: Something doesn’t mesh here. Why did one of the most highly regarded baseball pitchers since starring in college have to go through several wasted seasons without knowing what was wrong? Now we have a diagnosis, well actually three diagnoses. It seems like the saddest part of the problem was that it took much too long to finally get to this point. Why does this only happen to the Cubs?”

I echo Dr. Hecht’s questions and frustration. For at least two years (and possibly four) Mark Prior has been complaining of pain in his shoulder, and his velocity and effectiveness have gone out the window. Even as recently as two weeks ago, two different doctors recommended that Prior just rest and rehab his shoulder. When Dr. Andrews examined Prior, he didn’t find anything definitively wrong, but felt that exploratory arthroscopic surgery was in order. Why couldn’t anyone diagnose the problem and why didn’t someone suggest the surgery sooner?

I also found it interesting that Dr. Hecht believes Prior’s injury probably happened in 2003 when Prior collided with then-Braves second baseman Marcus Giles. Dr. Hecht makes this speculation based on the nature and extent of the injury Prior was diagnosed with. If the good doctor is correct, it just adds to my questions and frustrations over why all of this took so long.

Dr. Hecht’s entire article can be found here.

Mark Prior Really is Injured

2007-04-25T15:00:00.000-05:00

The verdict is in on Mark Prior and as it turns out, he really is hurt. As I documented previously, Prior’s many visits to the DL (9 times over 6 years) have been attributed by some to nothing more than a lack of toughness on Prior’s part. But yesterday, Dr. James Andrews performed arthroscopic surgery on Prior’s shoulder and found three problem areas.

First, Andrews found a tear in Prior’s labrum. Considering the fact that surgery was not recommended until fairly recently, my guess is that the tear was small. As I understand, a torn labrum, especially a small tear, can be difficult to detect and often does not show up on an MRI.

Second, Andrews tightened up Prior’s shoulder capsule. You’ll recall that Prior was previously diagnosed with a loose shoulder. Apparently, it was looser that you would expect even for a pitcher and Andrews tightened up the capsule.

Finally, Andrews found a debridement of the rotator cuff. This involves cleaning out all of the debris inside the joint or on the bursal side of the joint. Having debris in the rotator cuff is not unusual, especially for a pitcher. But Prior’s was apparently bad enough to cause him problems, including a significant reduction in his velocity.

I don’t know if Mark Prior will ever become the pitcher he once was, but I’m actually kind of happy that the doctors finally found a problem. Perhaps this will quiet those who accuse Prior of being a head case. Prior will rehab for the next 12-18 months and then we’ll see if he can get back to his 2003 form.

Cubs Odds & Ends

2007-04-23T18:08:00.000-05:00

It’s April 23 and the Cubs (7-11)are in last place in the NL Central, 4 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers (11-7). The Brewers are in town to take on the Cubs in a 3 game series. The Cubs “ace” Carlos Zambrano will be pitching for the good guys against the Brewers #5 starter, Claudio Vargas. It’s still early in the season, but the Cubs need to start making a run just to stay in contention. They can’t win the division this early in the year, but they certainly can lose it.

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BREAKING NEWS: The Cubs announced today that Mark Prior will be undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder tomorrow in Birmingham, AL. Dr. James Andrews will perform the surgery. The Cubs did not give a timeline for Prior's return and would not speculate on his prognosis.

This will be the first time Prior has had surgery, even though he has been on the DL nine times during the past six years.

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MORE BREAKING NEWS: Wade Miller has been placed on the 15-day DL and Rocky Cherry has been called up to take his place. The official report is that Miller is suffering from back spasms, but the speculation is that the Cubs are going to release Miller and they are putting him on the DL simply to give him time to work out a deal with another team. So far this year, Miller is 0-1 with a 10.54 ERA.

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You know how I love trade rumors. Here are five proposed trades from Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus:

1. Jacque Jones to White Sox for RHP Mike MacDougal
2. Jacque Jones to Phillies for RHP Jon Lieber
3. Jacque Jones to Angels for SS Erick Aybar
4. Cliff Floyd to Yankees for either RHP Kyle Farnsworth or RHP Scott Proctor
5. Matt Murton to A’s for RHP Joe Blanton

I wouldn’t call any of these trades likely, but I love the speculation. If I had to choose my favorite, I’d go with the Jones for Lieber trade. The Cubs need a reliable #5 starter and they could do worse than Jon Lieber. Of course, in recent days, the Phillies have decided to demote Brett Myers to the bullpen and insert Lieber into the starting rotation, so Lieber may not be available.

I hate to trade away Matt Murton, but Joe Blanton would certainly be a welcome addition to the Cubs starting rotation. If Matt has to go to break up the OF logjam, Joe Blanton would be a great guy to get in return.

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According to the Cubs depth chart on their mlb.com site, Alfonso Soriano is the backup in CF behind Felix Pie. However, if tonight’s lineup is any indication, Soriano is now in the #1 position in LF. Soriano will be starting in LF over incumbents Matt Murton and Cliff Floyd. Is the CF experiment over for Soriano? Who knows? What is certain is that Soriano needs to start hitting. If moving him to LF will help in that process, I’m all for it.

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One of our favorites, Ron Santo, has been hospitalized with an irregular heartbeat. Ronnie has had several health issues over the past several years including amputation of both legs due to Type 1 diabetes, heart bypass surgery in 2000 and he was diagnosed with bladder tumors in 2003.

Get Well, Ron!

Cubs Loss to Braves Really Hurts

2007-04-18T22:17:00.000-05:00

I don’t know what to say. I’m not panicking or jumping off the bandwagon, but tonight’s loss was disheartening. Zambrano gave up four runs in the first inning, but the Cubs kept fighting back. Unfortunately, every time the team fought back, one of the players blew the momentum. Izturis had a ridiculous error, Eyre couldn’t throw strikes when he had to, and neither Izturis nor Theriot could get timely hits, each leaving three runners on base.

Not everything was bad. Neal Cotts looked good in relief, DLee and JJones went 2-4, Felix Pie hit a triple, and Mark DeRosa hit his 4th HR of the year.

Tonight’s loss was a tough one. None of the losses are good, but tonight’s particularly hurt. The good news is that the team has started to hit and scored six runs tonight. The bad news is that it still wasn’t enough.

Piniella Shakes Up Lineup

2007-04-17T20:44:00.000-05:00

Lou Piniella is trying some new and slightly unorthodox twists to the starting lineup and so far the results are mixed. Yesterday, he started Matt Murton in RF and Jacque Jones in LF. Initially, I guessed that the change was due to Jones unbelievably weak throws in RF. I was under the impression that his arm (shoulder) was supposed to be healthy this year, yet he continues to throw the ball into the ground about 15 feet in front of him.

I’ve heard two other theories though (one of my own creation) that also make some sense. The first involves the really poor treatment that Jones has received from the fans in the right field bleachers. This harkens back to the racial slurs that were thrown Jones’ way at the beginning of last year. Jones is having another slow start to the season this year and the boo birds in right field have come out in full force. So the theory is that Lou is getting Jones away from the crowd in RF so he can concentrate on his game.

The theory I came up with is that the Cubs are showcasing Jones for a possible trade. As you may recall, the Padres were looking for a possible replacement in LF for Termel Sledge. And who have the Cubs played yesterday and today? Right, the Padres.

My theory has at least one hole. Going in to today’s game, Sledge was hitting .304. However, after an 0-5 day, he’s now hitting .259. Even so, Jones is still hitting worse than Sledge at only .235. If the Padres want to replace Sledge, my guess is that they’ll want to do it with someone better than Sledge.

Okay, before you start screaming about my shortsightedness, let me admit that I believe that Jones’ hitting will come around. Jones is the better ball player. Unfortunately for the Cubs, Jones isn’t helping the process very much.

Another twist to the lineup has been the debut of Felix Pie in CF. In case you were in solitary confinement, you probably already know that Alfonso Soriano pulled a hamstring yesterday and Felix Pie was called up from AAA Iowa. Lou batted Pie lead-off, which seemed odd to me. Are the Cubs trying to force a square Pie into a round hole, ala Corey Patterson? Pie went 1-6 in his debut and threw a laser beam from CF that saved a run and had the crowd oohing and ahhing.

Lou also made some unexpected moves with Ryan Theriot. While ARam has been out with a sore wrist, Theriot has been playing third base. Considering that Lou said in Spring Training that DeRosa would be the backup at third, it was a little surprising to see him use Theriot there. Then, when ARam comes back, Lou moves Theriot over to second base and benches DeRosa. That not a complaint. Theriot is playing well and Lou is playing his hot hand. It’s just surprising.

Today, as the game dragged on, as part of a double switch with DeRosa, Theriot ended up displacing Murton in RF. Of course, Murton is off to a rather slow start to the season, only hitting .231, so having Theriot in the lineup instead of Murton at this juncture is probably not a bad thing.

One other thought. I’ve been a Cubs fan for nearly 200 years (maybe a few less) and I’ve never seen Cubs fans so reactionary at the beginning of a season. An error by a player means the Cubs have the worst defensive team in history. A strikeout at a critical moment means a player is washed up and should be traded. Starting the season with a 5-8 record means the Cubs are going to lose even more games than they did in 2006.

Reasonable people can disagree about the future of this team, but to jump to unfounded conclusions is just foolish. Let the hitters get into a groove. Let the team chemistry gel and let the players get into a rhythm. Keep the sharp objects and high ledges at bay at least until June. The season is long and a lot can change in a relatively short time. Be patient…

MLB and the African-American Community

2007-04-13T18:01:00.000-05:00

Arizona Phil at The Cub Reporter has posted a very interesting article about MLB and its connection to the African-American community in America.

Right now, a debate is taking place around the country about the low participation among African-Americans in professional baseball as compared to other major sports like the NFL and NBA. There are very good reasons for the decline in participation, which Arizona Phil explores.

The other side of this debate involves MLB’s responsibility (if any) to be proactive in recruiting African-Americans. Is MLB doing enough? Are they obligated to do anything?

This article is especially timely considering that Sunday (April 15) is the 60th anniversary of Jackie Robinson playing his first game for the Brooklyn Dodgers.

Read Phil’s story here.

The Case for Mark Cuban

2007-04-11T15:50:00.000-05:00

I’ve been consistent in my support for Mark Cuban to become the next owner of the Cubs. Today, Ken Rosenthal from Fox Sports lays out the case for why Cuban should be the team’s next owner, and explains why it probably won’t happen. You can read Rosenthal’s article here.

MLB needs an owner like Mark Cuban; a guy who understands his business, cares about his customers, and puts his money where his mouth is. He may be abrasive, but his heart is almost always in the right place. And there’s no doubt that everything he gets involved with prospers because of his involvement.

The “old boys club” of MLB owners should welcome someone like Cuban. If they are concerned about being embarrassed, then they should deal with current owners, like those in Florida, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City who have lined their pockets with revenue sharing money rather than improving their teams. Cuban may be a maverick, but he’s also a winner.

MLB owners would also be well-advised to look at the good of the game rather than at their petty insecurities. Cuban’s involvement in MLB will almost assuredly create more interest in the game and will increase the value of its franchises. If MLB owners are truly smart businessmen (which is debatable), they’ll welcome Mark Cuban with open arms.

Welcome to the Home Opener

2007-04-09T11:38:00.000-05:00

We’re six games into the season and the Cubs have a record of 3-3. It’s still very early, but there have been some good things and some bad things that have happened so far.

Overall, the pitching has been good to very good. Carlos Zambrano looked rough in his first out, losing to the Reds on Opening Day 5-1. Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, and Rich Hill all looked terrific in their first starts of the season. Lilly and Hill each earned a win. Marquis deserved a win, but ended up with a no decision. Wade Miller looked really bad, as he lost to the Brewers 9-4.

The offense has looked just about as potent as expected. They’ve scored four or more runs in four of their six games. Obviously this is a small sample size, but so far, so good.

I’ve talked about this before, but the key to a successful season is to win series. On that account, the Cubs are 1-1. Win 2-out-of-3 in the three games series and don’t do any worse than splitting the two and four game series, and the season will take care of itself.

And that brings us to the Cubs home opener today against the Houston Astros. Ted Lilly will be on the mound for the good guys and Woody Williams will be going for the ‘Stros. Houston is in last place in the NL Central with a record of 1-5.

Go Cubs!

The Enigma That Is Mark Prior

2007-04-03T21:12:00.000-05:00

Mark Prior is no Ted Williams.

In the winter after the 1959 season, Williams offered to take a voluntary pay cut because of his poor showing the previous season. Williams poor performance during the 1959 season included a career low batting average of .254. Williams was embarrassed by his performance and despite 17 seasons with a batting average in excess of .300 (three of .400 or better), Williams volunteered to play for less money. He felt he had cheated Red Sox ownership.

By contrast, in 2006 Mark Prior suffered through an injury riddled season and appeared in only 43.2 innings over nine games for the Cubs. He went 1-6 with a 7.21 ERA. Even so, at the end of the 2006 season, after already earning $3.65 million for his 2006 performance, Mark Prior asked for a raise.

When Mark Prior was selected as the #2 pick overall in the 2001 draft by the Cubs, he was considered a “can’t miss” prospect. He had already pitched for two years at USC, including his junior year in 2001 when he led the Trojans to the College World Series.

It was said that Prior had perfect mechanics. Stories circulated about his work with former MLB pitcher Tom House that made House sound like a mythic figure who had “created” the perfect pitcher.

Prior joined the Cubs in 2002 after a whirlwind tour of the minors. He pitched in 116.2 innings that year, earning a 6-6 record and a 3.32 ERA. He was only 21-years old.

The 2003 season would only add to the huge expectations the Cubs (and the fans) had for Prior. The Cubs made the play-offs that year and came within five outs of going to the World Series. Prior had a magnificent season, going 18-6 with a 2.34 ERA. He pitched an impressive 211.1 innings, giving up only 50 walks compared to 245 strikeouts. Prior was a horse that year and the Cubs (particularly manager Dusty Baker) rode him for all he was worth.

With five outs to go in the 2003 NLCS, the wheels came off for the Cubs. They ended up losing the NLCS to the Marlins who then went on to win the World Series. Probably the most famous play of that sixth game of the NLCS is the infamous “Bartman play.” Coincidently or not, Prior threw the pitch that eventually became the “Bartman ball.”

Fate took a cruel twist in Prior’s career after that game. He suffered several injuries over the next three seasons and spent a great deal of time on the DL. Some of the injuries were obtained in the heat of battle, such as when a line shot off the bat of the Rockies Brad Hawpe hit Prior on the arm. But there were other injuries too, like when he strained an oblique muscle during batting practice (yes, batting practice) and when he was diagnosed with a “loose shoulder.” To my non-medical mind, a “loose shoulder” sounds like a symptom, not a diagnosis.

Because of the odd types of injuries Prior has had and the number of times he has been on the DL in the past three years, fans have turned on him. They’ve questioned his desire to play and his commitment to the game. Others have questioned his toughness and his durability. And many have questioned his character. Which brings us back to Ted Williams.

By offering to play for less money after suffering through a sub-par season (at least by his standards), Ted Williams showed a tremendous amount of character. He showed that he expected more out of himself and he showed that he understood that his employers expected more out of him. He took personal responsibility for his poor performance and offered to make up for it by accepting less money.

What did Mark Prior show when he asked for a raise after his horrible 2006 season? At first, I just wrote it off as “that’s baseball in the 21st Century.” Even if that is true, it doesn’t excuse Prior’s request. If Prior had taken personal responsibility for his poor performance, if he had acted with strong character, he wouldn’t have asked for a raise.

Mark Prior is an enigma. It is difficult to really get your hands around him. He lacks character, but he was a hell of a competitor in 2003. He has pitched horribly over the past year, but he still shows a ton of potential. He’s washed up, but he’s only 26-years old. For every negative thing you can say about him, Prior has a positive characteristic waiting just around the corner.

When it was announced at the end of Spring Training this year that Prior would start the year at AAA Iowa, he said that he’s just an employee and it was now his job to go help his team win. He also joked about making the AAA all-star team and said maybe he would be chosen to pitch in the Futures Game.

Even his comments are enigmatic. I don’t know if he’s being a jerk or just making a joke. In a way, I guess he’s doing both.

Mark Prior is young, talented, and has already proven that he has the stuff to be a dominant pitcher in the big leagues. He has also proven that he is injury prone, has a sense of entitlement, and has been unable to duplicate the form he showed in 2003.

As a Cubs fan, I would like to see Prior return to dominance. As a baseball fan, I’d like to see him live up to his potential. As a human being, I’d like to see the hardships Prior has endured over the past few years help to build some character in the young pitcher. That’s a tall order for any player, but if Prior needs a role model, he might want to take a look at Ted Williams.

Cubs Lose Opener; Trib Co to Sell the Team

2007-04-02T20:05:00.000-05:00

The Cubs lost today 5-1 to the Cincinnati Reds. Oh well. It was not the opening day I had hoped for, but it’s just one game. Remember, the Cubs won the first game of the year last year and then look what happened. Maybe today’s loss is a good omen.

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The Tribune Company announced today that they will be selling the Cubs at the end of the 2007 season. The announcement came as part of a larger announcement involving the sale of the media company to billionaire investor Sam Zell. Zell did not indicate why he did not want to also purchase the Cubs, although he already owns a stake in the Chicago White Sox and that may have played into his decision.

The Cubs are expected to sell for in excess of $600 million. I believe the sale will include ownership of Wrigley Field, WGN television and radio stations, and a stake in Chicago’s Comcast Sports Network, although the linked article does not comment directly on that.

So who will be the next owner of the Cubs? I’ve made it pretty clear in the past that my vote would go to Mark Cuban. For all of his self-promotion, I like the way he has run the Dallas Mavericks and believe he would be an owner that the fans would love and appreciate. Cuban is commited to winning, but knows how to run a business as well. It would be interesting to see what he does running a team in a league that does not have a salary cap.

Other people who have been rumored to have an interest in the Cubs include former owner of the D-Backs Jerry Colangelo, conservative newspaper columnist and TV political pundit George Will, actor and minor league team owner Bill Murray, and Don Levin, owner of the Chicago Wolves minor league hockey team.

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By the way, if you read yesterday's post and took my advice to read Transmission's excellent article at TCR, then I only have one thing to say: April Fools!

The Season Is Upon Us

2007-04-01T19:29:00.000-05:00

Your attention please: The season is officially underway. Right this very minute I am watching the Mets vs Cardinals at St. Louis. It’s exciting. What a fantastic time of year…

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Transmission over at The Cub Reporter has written one of the finest historical pieces I have ever read about the Cubs. It should be good. Not only is Trans an excellent writer, but he also has a Ph. D. in history. Dr. Trans article can be found here. If you want a real treat, I encourage you to read it.

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Our beloved Cubs take the field tomorrow against the Reds at Cincinnati. The game starts at 1:10 CDT. The best part of the year is about to begin. Strap yourself in. Following the Cubs this year should be a wild ride.

Am I Being Too Hard on St. Louis?

2007-03-27T18:35:00.000-05:00

Am I being too hard on the Cardinals? After all, they somehow won the World Series last year after I wrote them off as being too old and not having enough depth. Didn’t I learn my lesson last year? Apparently not.

This year, I'm predicting the Cards will end up in 4th place in the NL Central. They only won 83 games last year and they are not as good this year as they were last season.

Just look at the make up of the team. The Cards have two all-star caliber players in 1B Albert Pujols and 3B Scott Rolen.

CF Jim Edmonds used to be an all-star, but the poor guy is a physical mess. I’ll admit, I’ve underestimated Edmonds before, but he’s not getting any younger or any healthier. When it comes to Jim Edmonds, I’m bound to be right eventually.

Depending on who you listen to, Chris Duncan is either a superstar on the rise or a league average player that just had a nice debut season. I have a feeling that Duncan is going to be a decent hitting, weak fielding player, but he’s not the kind of player that can carry a team.

The other starting position players include right fielder So Taguchi (Juan Encarnacion is starting the season on the DL), SS David Eckstein, 2B Adam Kennedy, and catcher Yadier Molina. None of these guys are exceptional players or the type of hitters that strike fear into opposing pitchers.

What I’ve just described is the strength of the Cardinals. Their pitching staff is their weakness.

Chris Carpenter has put together a very nice career and can be counted on to have another good year. After Carpenter, the talent falls off precipitously.

Behind Carpenter is Kip Wells. Wells was 2-5 last year with a 6.50 ERA. For his career, Wells is 57-74 with a 4.46 ERA.

Next in line is 25-year old Anthony Reyes. He was 5-8 last year with a 5.06 ERA. There were times during the year that Reyes looked unhittable, but those spurts were few and far between. Reyes has a career record of 6-9 with a 4.74 ERA,

Then there is Adam Wainwright. Wainwright stepped in as the club’s closer last year after Jason Isringhausen went down to injury. Wainwright did an impressive job, but is the 25-year old ready to be a starter? Who knows for sure. He ended last season with a 2-1 record and an ERA of 3.12.

Finally, Braden Looper will fill the fifth starter position. Looper also pitched out of the bullpen for the Cardinals last year, going 9-3 with a 3.56 ERA. The 32-year old Looper has pitched in 572 games during the course of his career, but he has never started a game. He seems like an odd choice for St. Louis to count on as they start the season.

So the Cardinals will be trotting out Carpenter, who was 15-8 in 32 starts last year, and then four guys with a combined record in 2006 of 19-18 and a total of just 26 starts between them. This is not a rotation I would be excited about starting the season with.

Maybe I’m wrong about the Cardinals this year, but I don’t think so. The team has a lot of question marks and very few things to feel good about. I don’t see them finishing ahead of either the Cubs or Brewers, and I think the Astros will also have a better season than the Redbirds. Of course, as with so many things in life, only time will tell.

Predicting the NL Central

2007-03-25T21:15:00.000-05:00

In just over a week, the 2007 MLB season will officially begin. That means it’s time to make my annual prediction of how the NL Central should shake out.

First, I guess I should try to explain the miserable predictions I made last year. There were just a couple of things that went wrong. I overestimated the Cubs, underestimated the Brewers and Astros, wrote off the Cardinals as too old, and didn’t expect the Reds to do as well as they did. However, I did a pretty good job predicting the season the Pirates would have.

But last year is in the past. It’s a new day and my powers of seeing into the future are stronger than ever. Here’s what the NL Central will look like at the end of the 2007 season.

1. Chicago Cubs – The Cubs went on a spending spree in the off-season and completely rebuilt their 2006 team. On offense, they added Alfonso Soriano, Cliff Floyd, Mark DeRosa, and Darryle Ward. In addition, they re-signed Aramis Ramirez, who was arguably the best player available on the free agent market, and Derrick Lee should be healthy all year.

On the mound, the Cubs learned their lesson from previous years and they are not relying on Mark Prior or Kerry Wood. Instead, they added Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis to their starting rotation and they are returning a bullpen that was one of the bright points of 2006. If Prior adds anything to the starting rotation or Wood adds anything to the bullpen, it will be gravy.

Going from worst to first isn’t unheard of, but it is rare. Even so, I’m betting that the $300 million they spent over the winter is enough to beat the odds and win the NL Central.

2. Milwaukee Brewers – To listen to most experts, the Brewers are all about pitching. The Brewers starting rotation is considered on of the five best in the NL and the best in the NL Central. Led by the oft-injured Ben Sheets, the Brewers rotation also includes Chris Capuano, former Cardinal Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, and Claudio Vargas.

What is often overlooked is the offense that the Brewers will be bringing to the park. Lead-off man Ricky Weeks was injured for a good part of 2006 and should be rejuvenated this year. Geoff Jenkins suffered through the worst season of his career in 2006 but should rebound for a big year. Bill Hall should have another good year and Prince Fielder should have an even better year as he matures. Add in J.J. Hardy and Corey Hart, and the Brewers should have a potent offense. In fact, they should be good enough to finsh second in the NL Central and battle for a wild-card berth.

3. Houston Astros – The Astros still have a good offense, particularly with the addition of left fielder Carlos Lee, but their pitching isn’t going to be as strong as in past years. Andy Pettitte is gone and it is unlikely that Roger Clemens will be back. That leaves Roy Oswald as the only premiere pitcher on the team. Former Rockie Jason Jennings and former Padre Woody Williams are both question marks, and Matt Albers is completely unproven. Wandy Rodriguez, on the other hand, may turn out to be a bright spot for the Astros. He still has a lot to prove, but looks like he may be the real deal. All tolled, the Astros will not have the guns to be a serious contender for the NL Central.

4. St. Louis Cardinals – I predicted the demise of the Cardinals last year, but I proved to be a bit premature. Even so, I feel confident predicting that the Cardinals will not finish any higher than fourth in the NL Central. Other than Albert Pujols,Scott Rolen and perhaps Chris Duncan, the Cardinals do not sport much offense. Jim Edmonds is a walking injury, and So Taguchi, Juan Encarnacion, David Eckstein, Adam Kennedy, and Yadier Molina don’t inspire much fear in opposing pitchers.

On the mound, Chris Carpenter will be back with a new contract. After Carpenter, the Cardinals are counting on Kip Wells, Al Reyes, Adam Wainwright, and Braden Looper. It will take career years from Wells, Reyes, Wainwright, and Looper for the Cards to even have a chance. Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan are often viewed as miracle workers, but even they do not have enough magic to turn this team into a contender.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates are a team on the rise. Young stars like Jason Bay, Freddie Sanchez, Jack Wilson, and former Brave Adam LaRoche are exciting to watch. Young pitchers like Zach Duke, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm, and Tom Gorzelanny form a solid rotation that will give opponents fits. The Pirates are too young to be serious contenders this year, but if they can keep their team together, meaning ownership will have to spend some money, they could return past glory to a once proud baseball city.

6. Cincinnati Reds – The Reds overachieved in 2006. They had a great (and unexpected) first half, but faded badly in the second half. Once again, Ken Griffey, Jr is starting the year at less than 100%. In 2006, Adam Dunn hit 40 HRs, but proved that he is a strike out machine, whiffing 194 times and hitting only .234. The rest of the offense is just as unremarkable.

The pitching is what made the Reds contenders last year, but don’t expect the same type of overachieving in 2007. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are both decent pitchers, but neither one is capable of carrying this team. The Reds will finish in the cellar in the NL Central.

Remembering Sammy

2007-03-21T14:48:00.000-05:00

Rob G. over at The Cub Reporter has a great article up today entitled "Can We Forgive Sammy?" It's very well written and talks about how a lot of Cubs fans are still mad at Sammy for the way his tenure with the Cubs ended. This, despite all of the great baseball Sammy provided to Cubs fans over the years. The reason Rob wrote the article about Sammy is because the Cubs are taking on the Rangers (Sammy's new team) today in Cactus League action and it will be the first time Sammy has faced his old club since leaving the northside.

I have to admit that I still have some hard feelings toward Sammy. His corked bat incident was an embarrasment, the steroid allegations, particularly his performance before Congress, was distrurbing, and the way he quit on his team at the end of the 2004 season were all sore points for me. Even so, the bad doesn't begin to outweight the good that Sammy brought to the Cubs. I never got the feeling that Sammy was giving less than 100% when he was on the field and his love of the game was infectious.

Then there is the homerun race in 1998 between Sammy and Mark McGwire. In hindsight, I feel a little dirty being so excited and following so closely the daily contest between those two. The steroid allegations make it seem less special than it seemed at the time. But there is no denying that at the time, it was very special. I still have fond memories of following the HR chase with my daughter who was just three years old at the time. It was her first real introduction to baseball and she still loves it today.

Read Rob's article here. It's a great read.

Ranking the NL Central Pitching Staffs

2007-03-16T22:46:00.000-05:00

They say that pitching wins championships, so it makes sense to look at the pitching rotations each team in the NL Central will be trotting out come opening day. The experts are saying that four of the best rotations in the NL will be those owned by the Dodgers, Padres, D-Backs and Phillies. Another team that is routinely mentioned in the top tier of pitching staffs in the NL is the Milwaukee Brewers.

1. Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers starting five is the only group in the NL Central considered to be among the best in the league. They are led by ace Ben Sheets. Big things are expected from Sheets this year, after he missed most of the year with an injury in 2006. He’s a guy with a ton of potential, most of it unrealized.

Another strong point for the Brewers is that their closer, Francisco Cordero, may be the best closer in the NL Central. He can sometimes be erratic, which is why he lost the closer job in Texas before being traded to the Brewers. But when he’s on, as he was during his tenure with the Brewers during the second half of 2006, he’s lights out.

The Brewers full rotation includes:

1. Ben Sheets
2. Chris Capuano
3. Jeff Suppan
4. Dave Bush
5. Claudio Vargas

2. Chicago Cubs – The Cubs have the second best rotation in the NL Central, but theirs is not an elite rotation. It is probably fair to call them a second tier staff. Led by 2006 Cy Young contender Carlos Zambrano, the Cubs also sport former Toronto lefty Ted Lilly. Lilly will be the lynchpin in the Cubs rotation. Z is as close to a sure thing as you can get in baseball. If Lilly can successfully contribute to the team (meaning 15+ wins), the Cubs are in for a successful year. If not, it will be a long year for the Northsiders.

Although the Cubs bullpen is expected to be a strength for the team, their closer is a big question mark. After a great 2005, closer Ryan Dempster imploded last year. If he doesn’t rebound, look for Bob Howry or Kerry Wood to take over the closer role.

The Cubs rotation is:

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Ted Lilly
3. Jason Marquis
4. Rich Hill
5. Wade Miller/Angel Guzman

3. Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates have a good (but not great) starting rotation. They are young and unproven, but they are talented. The key for the Pirates is for lefty Zach Duke to have a successful year. In 2005, his first year in the majors, Duke was 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA. That success was tempered a bit in 2006 when Duke went 10-15 with a 4.47 ERA. On a positive note, Duke pitched 215.1 innings in 2006, including two complete games.

The Buccos 2006 closer, Mike Gonzalez is now with the Braves, so the closer role falls to Salomon Torres. Torres has 17 career saves, 12 of those coming in 2006 in 15 opportunities.

The Pirates young staff includes:

1. Zach Duke
2. Ian Snell
3. Paul Maholm
4. Tom Gorzelanny
5. Tony Armas Jr./Shawn Chacon

4. Houston Astros – The Astros are a bit of a crap shoot. Ace Roy Oswalt is probably the best pitcher in the NL (at least in the top five), but the rotation falls off quite a bit after Oswalt. The Astros picked up Jason Jennings from the Rockies in the off season and are counting on him to make a big impact for them in 2007. Jennings had an impressive 3.78 ERA for the Rockies in 2006, but an unimpressive 9-13 record. In the off season, Jennings was a hot commodity, which meant the Astros had to pay a high price for him. Only time will tell if Jennings was worth the price.

If Roger Clemens returns to the Astros, their pitching staff will be much better (I have a gift for identifying the obvious), but when Clemens looks at the Astros bullpen, he may not be too thrilled about coming back. The most glaring weakness in the bullpen is closer Brad Lidge. In the second half of 2006, Lidge just fell apart. He’s been given every opportunity to work his way out of his slump, but hasn’t taken advantage of it so far. Spring Training statistics may not mean a lot, but Lidge’s ERA of over 13.00 so far this Spring does not bode well for the upcoming season.

The Astros starting rotation includes:

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Jason Jennings
3. Woody Williams
4. Wandy Rodriguez
5. Matt Albers/Francisco Nieve

5. St. Louis Cardinals – The Cards lost most of their 2006 World Series winning rotation to free agency. Gone are Jeff Suppan (Brewers), Jason Marquis (Cubs), and Jeff Weaver (Mariners). Chris Carpenter is a perennial Cy Young candidate, but the rest of the rotation is manned by four question marks. Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright showed signs of brilliance in 2006, but how will they react pitching a full season? Braden Looper has never pitched more than 84 innings in a season and will now be asked to contribute many more innings as a fifth starter. Finally, Kip Wells is being counted on as the number two guy in the rotation. Wells showed a lot of promise early in his career with Pittsburgh, but over the course of his career he is 17 games below .500 (57-74) with a career ERA of 4.46.

Pitching coach Dave Duncan is often credited with working miracles, but it appears even he may be in over his head in 2007. Duncan will also be able to do precious little with closer Jason Isringhausen who is not 100% yet after undergoing season ending hip surgery in 2006. Of course, the trio of Walt Jockety, Tony LaRussa, and Duncan always seem to find a way to get things done. But 2007 may prove to be the year that the mountain is too steep, even for the Three Amigos.

The Cardinals 2007 rotation is:

1. Chris Carpenter
2. Kip Wells
3. Anthony Reyes
4. Adam Wainwright
5. Braden Looper

6. Cincinnati Reds – I am accused of not giving the Reds starting pitchers enough credit. After all, their 2006 pitching staff kept them in the running for the division title for the majority of the year in 2006. Of course, that may have been the result of some otherwise mediocre pitchers overachieving. In 2006, the Reds were led by the former Red Sox right hander Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo pitched an impressive 240.2 innings, posting a 14-11 record with a 3.29 ERA. He will have to duplicate what was in essence a career year if the Reds are to have any hope in 2007.

The Reds have yet to identify a closer. The most likely candidates are either Dave Weathers or Mike Stanton. Weathers has 41 career saves while Stanton boasts 84 saves in his career. Neither pitcher is considered a natural closer, but the Reds have very few options to fill the vacancy.

The Reds starters are:

1. Aaron Harang
2. Bronson Arroyo
3. Eric Milton
4. Kyle Lohse
5. Matt Belisle/Elizardo Ramirez/Bobby Livingston/Kirk Saarloos

Prior Sent to Minor League Camp

2007-03-12T17:57:00.000-05:00

Mark Prior has been sent to Minor League camp to work on his pitching problems. Lou Piniella said sending Prior to the Minor League camp will allow him to work out without all of the media attention. He said he wants Prior to just relax and get back into the groove that saw him go 18-6 in 2003.

Mark Prior is a complicated guy to figure out. He was lights out in 2003 and has struggled since then through injuries and inconsistency. He missed a good part of 2006 with injuries. He had that time to rehab, as well as the off-season. He came into camp saying he felt great and he was ready to go. Even so, he has struggled so far this spring, pitching only 3 1/3 innings, while giving up seven runs, eight hits, and walking five batters.

Cubnut over at The Cub Reporter says he thinks Prior is pitching like a man who is afraid he’s going to injure himself.

“He didn’t look like a guy pitching through pain or an injury; he looked like a guy who was terrified of getting injured and was throwing accordingly.”

I think Cubnut makes a great point. If what he says is true, Prior’s problems aren’t physical, but mental. To me, this makes sense. Prior has been a guy who has experienced tremendous success in his life because of his ability to throw a baseball. Now, he has experienced three consecutive years of adversity due to injury. When he has pitched, he has gotten knocked around like never before. His magic right arm is letting him down and he’s not sure how to deal with it.

Now that he is healthy (or at least is supposed to be), he’s afraid he might injure his golden arm once again. So he compromises his pitches and changes his arm angle in an attempt to save his arm. But instead, what he is doing is getting away from doing the things that made him so effective in the first place.

If Prior wants to experience another season like 2003, he needs to get back to what got him to the big leagues. His velocity will come with time. But what he needs more than velocity is the movement his pitches once displayed. And to get that, Prior needs to recapture the mechanics he once had. To do that, he’ll need to have his head on straight. I hope he can do that in Minor League camp.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

A lot of people are unhappy with the pitching staff that Jim Hendry put together for this year. The argument being made by the naysayers is that Carlos Zambrano is too emotional, Ted Lilly gives up too many home runs, Rich Hill is too unproven, Jason Marquis is no longer effective, and the Cubs 5th starter is still undecided. While there are bits and shreds of truth in these criticisms, overall I disagree with them all.

First, Carlos Zambrano is a legitimate ace. He’s proven his worth and there are only a few pitchers I would prefer to have at the top of the rotation than Big Z. He’s emotional, but he’s nonetheless effective. And once he gets complete control of his emotions and can harness that energy, he’ll be even better.

Ted Lilly is a flyball pitcher, which normally does work well in Wrigley Field, but I’m not ready to write him off. He was effective in Toronto and his switch to the NL should help him.

Rich Hill is unproven, but so is every other pitcher with his level of experience. That last sentence may not have made complete sense, but what I’m trying to say is that every young pitcher is unproven. That just means that Hill is in the process of proving himself.

Jason Marquis is better than a lot of people think and he is better than he showed in 2006 with the Cards. Obviously, I can’t prove he’s going to have a good 2007, but that is what I expect.

As for the 5th starter, I’m not upset that the position is not set yet. That’s what Spring Training is for. The Cubs have five legitimate pitchers who could fill this position, including Mark Prior, Wade Miller, Angel Guzman, Neal Cotts, and Sean Marshall.

I’m not buying into the doom and gloom about the Cubs pitching staff. There are only a few pitching staffs in the NL better than the Cubs. Barring unexpected injuries, I expect the Cubs pitching staff to be a strength for the 2007 team.

Cubs Win Ugly

2007-03-07T20:54:00.000-06:00

The Cubs improved their ST record to 3-3-1 on Wednesday by beating the Oakland A’s 9-8. A masterpiece of a baseball game by the Cubs it was not.

Carlos Zambrano started the game for the Cubs and survived three innings. He threw 61 pitches and gave up two runs. Z also walked three batters in his three innings, setting the tone for a day that saw the Cubs give up a total of 10 walks. The defense committed four errors and there were two hits credited to the A’s that could have easily been scored errors.

The offense carried the day. Derrick Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Jacque Jones all had three hits. Alfonso Soriano, Matt Murton and Michael Barrett all contributed two hits apiece.

But the story of the day was the poor pitching and poor defense displayed by the Cubs. I’m afraid this may become the MO for the 2007 team. I expect a good record (89-91 wins), but I also expect a lot of ugly games. I guess winning is winning, but it’s a lot easier to lose when you play ugly.

Cubs Improve Cactus League Record

2007-03-07T08:14:00.000-06:00

After starting the Cactus League season 0-3-1, Lou Piniella got pissed. He complained that the team was neither pitching well nor getting timely hits. He didn’t throw a tirade, but he let his players know that he expected more.

Over the past two days, the players have given more. On Monday, the Cubs defeated the Mariners 6-5 and yesterday they beat the Brewers 3-2.

In Monday’s game against the Mariners, Mark Prior made his Spring debut and didn’t look very good. He pitched 1 1/3 innings, threw 40 pitches, gave up four hits and three earned runs. Kerry Wood pitched one inning of no-hit baseball.

Felix Pie was the hitting star, going 3-5. He drove in a run and scored another. Mike Kinkade had a HR and a single, driving in two runs.

On Tuesday, Jason Marquis shined in his Cubs debut. He threw three scoreless innings against the Brewers, giving up just two hits and striking out two. Ryan Dempster looked good in his one inning of work, giving up a hit and striking out two.

The better play by the Cubs followed the tough words by Piniella. Is there a cause and effect? Probably not. The better play is more likely the result of Cubs regulars getting more playing time an shaking off the rust of the winter. Even so, it was good to see the Cubs’ manager show some emotion. It was a nice change all the way around.

Forbes Ranks Pro Sports GMs

2007-03-05T11:09:00.000-06:00

Forbes Magazine, which likes to print lists of all different kinds of stuff (i.e. richest people, richest celebrities, value of sports franchises, etc) has come up with another interesting list. This time, Forbes has ranked the GMs in the four major sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL).

According to Forbes, each GM is graded in two ways; First, on regular season winning percentage and post season wins versus the regular season winning percentage and post season wins of their predecessor. Second, they are graded on their relative payroll compared with their predecessor’s relative payroll.

The magazine only included GMs with at least three years of experience. And because winning is more important than payroll, winning percentage was double weighted.

Of all of the GMs in all four sports, Kevin McHale of the Minnesota Timberwolves was ranked first. The top five in all of sports looked like this:

1. Kevin McHale (Minnesota Timberwolves)
2. Jay Feaster (Tampa Bay Lightning)
3. Billy King (Philadelphia 76ers)
4. A.J. Smith (San Diego Chargers)
5. Lou Lamoriello (New Jersey Devils)

Two things strike me about this top five list. First, there’s no one from MLB on the list. In fact, the highest ranking MLB GM is ranked #26. The other thing is, how many championships have the top five GMs won with their current teams? As best I can tell, the answer is zero. The Tampa Bay Lightning won a championship a few years ago, but that was before Jay Feaster became the GM. So obviously, winning championships doesn’t enter into the rankings, although in my opinion it should since that is what every team is built to do.

In any case, now that we understand the shortcomings of the rankings, let’s take a look at the rankings of the MLB GMs.

The top five MLB GMs according to Forbes are:

1. Billy Beane (Oakland A’s)
2. Omar Minaya (New York Mets)
3. Theo Epstein (Boston Red Sox)
4. Brian Sabean (San Francisco Giants)
5. Pat Gillick (Philadelphia Phillies)

Considering the top five names on the MLB list, it seems to me that this whole exercise is flawed. Of the top five, only Theo Epstein with Boston has won a World Series. The thing that helped Epstein so much in the rankings is that his predecessor was spending a lot of money (but not getting the commensurate winning percentage), so Epstein is not gigged for having such a high payroll.

Our beloved (or hated) Jim Hendry came in 58th overall and 14th among MLB GMs. Since there are only 23 MLB GMs with three or more years of experience, Hendry is in the bottom half of the rankings for MLB GMs. Although I don’t agree with the top five, I really can’t argue with Hendry’s ranking. Of course, a successful 2007 season could substantially upgrade his ranking.

Interestingly, Ken Williams from the White Sox is ranked 19th out of the 23 MLB GMs. I’m no fan of the White Sox, but it seems to me that Williams deserves better. He has built some excellent teams (especially over the past 3-4 years) and he won a World Series. Winning a World Series should count for something.

Not surprisingly, the bottom three GMs are:

21. Jim Bowden (Washington Nationals)
22. Dave Littlefield (Pittsburgh Pirates)
23. Bill Bavasi (Seattle Mariners)

Honestly, Dave Littlefield probably deserves better, but since he doesn’t have much to work with, I guess he’s stuck at the bottom.

The Forbes listing is interesting, even if I don’t agree with the way it was done. Winning a championship in any sport is the ultimate goal. Building a team that is consistently good, but never wins it all is nice, but it still falls short of the goal. For this reason, Forbes should have considered and weighted for championships won.

The article and rankings from Forbes can be found here.

Lou Isn't Happy

2007-03-04T21:55:00.000-06:00

The Cubs are 0-4 so far this Spring and Lou Piniella isn’t happy about it. On Sunday, after losing to the White Sox by a score of 13-2, Piniella showed the first signs of the fiery nature he is well known for.

“Our pitchers aren’t pitching well, and our hitters aren’t hitting very well,” Piniella said. “Outside of that, we’re OK.”

Piniella went on to say, “I’ve only been here four days, but I certainly don’t like what I see. I’m being truthful. There’s a whole lot of work to do here. I’m talking about everything. You walk people, and right after the walks come the big flys. The ball carries well in Arizona, but it seems like its only carrying for the other side right now.”

I appreciate what Lou has to say. I know it’s only Spring Training and it’s only been four games, but the Cubs don’t look good. In four games, the Cubs have been outscored 36-15 and they have left 28 runners on base. These are not the characteristics of a successful team.

It’s way too early to panic about the 2007 season. The Cubs made a lot of changes over the Winter and it’s going to take a little time for the team to gel. In addition, Spring is the time to try out some of the players who likely will end up spending the season in the minors. Even so, an 0-4 start to the Spring isn’t something that a fragile Cubs fan can use to build their confidence in their favorite team. We’re a vulnerable lot and we could use a few wins to bolster our spirits.

Cuban to Buy Cubs...Someday...Maybe

2007-02-28T19:37:00.000-06:00

This is how rumors get started. A website called radaronline.com published an article indicating that billionaire famous guy Mark Cuban is on the verge of making a $625 million offer for the Cubs. Radaronline.com credited the scoop to “a source familiar with the matter.” Then it must be true.

Deadspin.com picked up on the story and published it on their website. The Deadspin.com story was picked up by BaseballThinkFactory.com. Then, as if on queue, we all got excited. What are we, lemmings?

Eventually the truth came out. Cuban has indicated in the past that in the right circumstances, he would be interested in purchasing the Cubs. However, the Chicago Tribune contacted Cuban via email and he denied that an offer was in the works. “Not true,” Cuban said. “I have no idea where they got their info.”

I’m all for Cuban purchasing the Cubs. I’m also in favor of accurate reporting and professional journalism. Unfortunately, we missed out on both in this case.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

The Veterans Committee blew it again. Once again they failed to elect anyone into the Hall of Fame, including Ron Santo. As a consolation prize, Santo received the most votes of anyone under consideration, but he still came up four votes shy of the 67 votes needed.

I’ve written in the past about why Santo should be enshrined, so I won’t go over all of the arguments again. However, there is one salient point that stands out above the rest: Santo’s offensive statistics were better than the majority of the third basemen that are currently in the HOF. They are also better than the majority of all of the position players in the Hall. Defensively, Santo is one of the top third basemen to ever play the game. Bottom line: Ron Santo belongs in the Hall of Fame.

There is another issue that needs to be dealt with. The new, revamped Veterans Committee has been in existence for six years. The way the process is set up, the Veterans Committee considers players, managers, and others that were considered by the Baseball Writers of America (BBWWA), but were not elected to the Hall. The Veterans Committee votes every other year.

So in six years – or three elections – the Veterans Committee has elected a total of… wait for it…zero players. That’s right, none, zero, zip, zilch. According to the Veterans Committee, no one that is not currently in the Hall deserves to be in the Hall. Baldersdash (and I don’t say that lightly).

The Veterans Committee voting process needs to be revisited. The percentage needed to get into the Hall (currently set at 75%) needs to be lowered or committee members need to be required to vote for a minimum number of candidates. Right now, too many committee members are submitting blank ballots.

If the Veterans Committee has its way, they will never elect anyone. And that's not good for the HOF, which is in the business of enshrining former ball players. The six year Veterans Committee experiement has been a failure. They need to try something else.

Barrett Talking New Contract

2007-02-26T17:01:00.000-06:00

Michael Barrett is talking about a new contract, but his tone is quite a bit different than Carlos Zambrano’s. Barrett says he’s willing to talk before, during, or after the season. He’s not setting any deadlines and he wants the Cubs to know that he wants to stay as their everyday catcher.

This may not be the strongest negotiating tactic, but I have to say that it is refreshing to hear a guy who feels strong loyalty toward his team.

“I will put no deadline or nothing on anything,” Barrett said. “For me, I feel like I’ve been through a lot as a player, and I feel completely blessed to be a part of this team. For me, if there’s a distraction that keeps you from appreciating putting on a Cubs uniform, then something ain’t right. That’s the way I feel.”

Barrett is one of the premier offensive catchers in the NL (not to mention a fine linguist). During a 2006 season that the Cubs would rather forget, Barrett was a bright spot. He hit .307 with 16 HR and 53 RBI in 107 games. His season was cut short when he suffered an intra-scrotal hematoma, an injury so dire that it actually makes me cringe to write it.

I have mixed emotions about Barrett. Although his defense has improved over the years, he’s still not a strong defensive catcher. He worked some this off season with former Cubs catcher and current coach Jody Davis on his defense, but it remains to be seen what impact this will have.

The last several World Series teams each had a “defense first, offense second” type catcher. Does that mean that is the best way to go? No, not necessarily. Several teams that made it to the post-season and even into the World Series had strong offensive catchers. It seems that the most important attribute a catcher can have is a good working relationship with his pitching staff. Despite his defensive woes, Barrett seems to have a good relationship with his pitchers.

Only time will tell what direction the Cubs decide to go with their catcher. It seems to me that in the end, it will be very difficult to give up Barrett’s offense.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Nothing new on the Geoff Jenkins – Jacque Jones rumor I talked about at the end of last week. The rumor originated (as far as I can tell) with former Cubs broadcaster Steve Stone. I contacted Tim Dierkes at www.MLBTraderumors.com, but he had not heard anything about it. I’ve been checking his site to see if any of his contacts were hearing anything, but nothing so far.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Trans at The Cub Reporter posted a terrific article today about why Greg Maddux left the Cubs in favor of the Braves in 1992. For a lot of us, I think we remember the reasons differently than they actually occurred. Trans’ article is both educational and entertaining.

The thing I took away from the article is just how “small market minded” the Cubs were back in the early ‘90’s. Not only did GM Larry Himes alienate Maddux, but he also alienated another future HOF in Andre Dawson. I can’t pin the blame on Himes for institutionalizing the small market mentality, but he certainly did perpetuate it. In fact, it was so well ingrained in the organization that it took nearly $300 million this past winter in off season signings to overcome it, at least temporarily. Only the future will tell us if it’s gone for good.

Jacque Jones Trade Rumor

2007-02-23T19:27:00.000-06:00

The boys over at The Cub Reporter are discussing a rumored trade that would send Geoff Jenkins to the Cubs in exchange for OF Jacque Jones. The rumor apparently was uttered by former Cubs pitcher and broadcaster Steve Stone on “The Score” sports talk radio station in Chicago.

At first blush, this deal didn’t make sense to me. Trading these two guys for each other would be pretty much of a wash. Both players have a difficult time hitting left-handed pitching. Jones provides more speed, is probably better defensively, is a year younger, and is $3 million cheaper than Jenkins for the 2007 season (he is signed for $5 million for 2008).

Jenkins is a more patient hitter, puts up better offensive numbers, has more power (2006 notwithstanding), and strikes out far less. He also has a better throwing arm.

Another difference between the two players is that Jones is coming off a terrific year and Jenkins is coming off a down year (although not as down as people would have you think). In addition, Jenkins looks a little like Brett Favre and Jones doesn’t. I don’t know if that will matter in the end, but it’s something to consider.

So why would the two teams make this trade? From the Cubs perspective, Jones allegedly asked for a trade after the 2006 season because of some racist remarks that were directed towards him by some Neanderthal Cubs fans. His wife (or mother, I can’t remember) also got into it with some fans. Cubs GM Jim Hendry apparently told Jones he would trade him if he could, but now reports are coming out of Cubs camp that Jones never requested the trade. Who knows?

By adding Jenkins, the Cubs would be able to grant Jones’ wish (if in fact it is his wish) and would get a slight upgrade offensively. Jenkins would be more expensive in 2007 (what do the Cubs care about money?), and then they’d have a club option on him for 2008. The Cubs could either buy him out for $500,000 after the 2007 season and they’d be done with him, or they could pick up his option for $9 million. With Felix Pie expected to be ready late in 2007 or at the beginning of the 2008 season, my guess is that the Cubs would cut Jenkins loose.

What’s in it for the Brewers? One thing is money. Rather than paying Jenkins $7 million this year and then buying him out for $500,000 at the end of the season, they could have Jones for $4 million this year and $5 million next year. That means it would only cost the Brewers $1.5 million more to have Jones for two years as it would to have Jenkins for just one year. What a bargain.

Trading one outfielder for another one really doesn’t help the Brewers logjam issues in the outfield, but it doesn’t make them worse either. Plus, with Jones more reasonable contract, it would likely be easier to trade him (although he does have a limited no-trade clause).

Also, and on this one I’m just guessing, Jones may be more accepting of a platoon assignment with Kevin Mench (or Gabe Gross)than Jenkins is. Right now for the Brewers, both Jenkins and Mench are saying they would rather be traded than platoon. Yost has made it clear that he is going to do what is best for the team regardless of whether Jenkins or Mench think it’s a good idea. But maybe it would be easier to move Jenkins than fight with him about the possible platoon.

Finally, I don’t know if Milwaukee is a place that Jones has indicated he would be willing to go as part of his limited no-trade clause, but he has a very good reason to approve the trade. It’s a little confusing, so I’ll let AZ Phil from The Cub Reporter explain it:

“If the Brewers are not on Jones’ “no go” list (or even if they are), there is one reason why Jacque might be THRILLED with such a deal. That’s because he signed his three-year contract with the Cubs under the old CBA, and as such, if he is traded prior to the last year of his contract, he can demand a trade during the FA filing period immediately following the season he gets traded. And if he doesn’t get traded by March 15th, he has the option to become a FA (and there is no compensation required for such a player, even if the player is rated by Elias as a Type “A”).

"So let’s say the Brewers whisper to Jones that if he agrees to be traded to MIL, and if he were to then demand a trade (per the old CBA) after the 2007 season, the Brewers will agree to NOT trade him, which would allow Jones instead to have the option to be a FA during Spring Training 2008 (3-15-2008).

"While mid-March is not the optimum time to be an MLB FA, it still might net Jacque a new FA contract with a 2008 salary in excess of the $5M he was supposed to get under the terms of the deal he signed with the Cubs, especially if the other MLB clubs know four months in advance that he will be a FA at that time (just as everybody knew well in advance that Javier Vazquez had demanded to be traded from the D’backs after the 2005 season, and would be a FA on 3-15-2006 if he wasn’t traded).”

In other words, Jones could potentially have millions of reasons to want this deal to go through.

At the moment, this is just a rumor. But where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Except when there isn’t…

Dream a Little Dream

2007-02-22T12:13:00.000-06:00

Sit back my friend. Relax, and dream a little dream about the 2007 Cubs.

It’s September and the ’07 Cubs have just clinching the NL Central. To the surprise of many, it was the pitching that carried the club through the season and into the playoffs.

Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano was spectacular, posting a 19-7 record with a 3.13 ERA. To no ones surprise, Zambrano stayed healthy all year and pitched over 200 innings. He also helped his own cause by batting .196 with 4 HR.

Ted Lilly was solid all year and like Zambrano, was a workhorse, logging 204 2/3 innings. His 16-10 record was impressive, as was his 3.88 ERA. Much was written about the foibles of adding a flyball pitcher like Lilly to a ballpark like Wrigley Field, but in the end it didn’t prove to be a problem.

Mark Prior returned to his 2003 form and posted a record of 14-6 and an impressive ERA of 2.96. Although he missed a game here and there with a nagging injury, he still started 26 games and pitched well, even in the losses. Prior threw 174 1/3 innings, the most since his 2003 campaign. The highlight of the year for Prior was the no-hitter he threw against the Padres on a warm May evening in San Diego. It was definitely a comeback year for the young right-hander who is still working on realizing his tremendous potential.

Rich Hill had an up and down year, including a stint on the DL. He ended the year with an 8-7 record, but was fully recovered in time for the playoffs. Hill’s ERA of 4.75 is a bit misleading, since he was pounded in two games that accounted for many of the runs he allowed.

Jason Marquis was a pleasant surprise. Although a lot of negative things were said about him when he signed with the Cubs, he produced a nice 11-8 season with a 4.15 ERA. He also turned out to be a great influence in the clubhouse and a team leader.

Wade Miller was healthy and ready to go at the beginning of the season, but there just wasn’t room for him in the rotation. Trade rumors that included Miller’s name were almost constant from the beginning of the season, but Miller ignored the rumors and concentrated on pitching out of the bullpen. When Rich Hill was put on the DL, Miller filled in admirably. He posted a record of 4-3 in his eight starts for the Cubs and an overall record of 5-5 with a 4.54 ERA. Miller was traded as part of a package at the trade deadline. Of course, I would have to be a psychic to know who the Cubs got in return.

The bullpen was outstanding, led by closer Kerry Wood. A lot of people said Wood had control issues and would not make a good closer, but what those people didn’t realize was that only throwing one inning to close out a ball game is completely different that starting a game and having to pace yourself. Wood saved 33 out of 36 chances for the Cubs. Just having him available and knowing he could be counted on gave the team a boost and allowed Lou Piniella to manage more aggressively and with much more confidence.

So what about Ryan Dempster? I don’t know. He was either traded or got hurt. Does it really matter?

Two other guys who really distinguished themselves in the bullpen were Neal Cotts and Bob Howry. Cotts did a great job in long relief for the Cubs, and filled in nicely when Hill or one of the other starters were injured. Cotts ended the year with a 4-2 record and an ERA of 4.00.

Howry did a solid job as the set up man in front of Kerry Wood. He ended the year with a record of 5-6 and a 3.30 ERA.

The pitching staff was a bit of a question mark at the beginning of the year, but they came through and led the team into the post-sesaon.

Ahh, that was a nice dream. But it’s time to go back to work. If there’s time later, we can dream a little dream about the offense.

Cubs Sign Zambrano

2007-02-20T18:41:00.000-06:00

Okay, it’s not like Zambrano was a free agent, but it’s still exciting that Z and the Cubs avoided arbitration and got a deal done. They agreed on a one-year, $12.4 million contract that will likely last less than six weeks. That’s how long the two sides have to negotiate a long-term deal before the start of the season, Zambrano’s self-imposed deadline.

I have mixed emotions about a long-term deal. As I’ve chronicled here in the past, there is no reason to work out a long-term agreement right now. Let’s see what Z does during the course of the year. If he does well and stays healthy, then sign him.

On the other hand, if Zambrano is not signed before he becomes a free agent after the 2007 season, there is always the possibility that he will sign elsewhere. There are very few pitchers of Z’s caliber in the game. It doesn’t make sense to lose him, only to have to overspend to get someone less capable to replace him.

Whatever happens, it’s good to have Z signed and ready to pitch this season. Let’s win a World Series this year and worry about who’s signed and who isn’t next year.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Kerry Wood is a skinny person. Over the off-season, Wood lost a considerable amount of weight and eye witnesses are reporting that he looks younger and healthier than he has in years. Unfortunately for Wood, he suffered the first injury of the year when he slipped in his hot tub and bruised his chest.

Wood reports that he’s fine and he’s ready to pitch full speed. However, Pinella says that he’s going to take it easy on Wood for now and doesn’t plan on using Wood in back-to-back games until he feels Wood is ready.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Having signed Carlos Zambrano to a one-year deal, the Cubs have now signed all of their arbitration-eligible players without having to go to arbitration. As it turns out, that isn’t all that unusual. Since 1980, the Cubs have only gone to arbitration with five players. In those five arbitration cases, the Cubs have won three and lost two.

One of those they won occurred in 1988 with Andre Dawson. Dawson was asking for $2 million and the Cubs were offering $1.85 million. The two sides were only $115,000 apart, yet they couldn’t reach an agreement. The arbitrator sided with the Cubs. Just to avoid any bad karma, Jim Hendry should send The Hawk a check for $115,000 and ask for his forgiveness.

A "Glass is Half Empty" Look at the 2007 Cubs

2007-02-15T22:44:00.000-06:00

Spring Training is finally underway. Pitchers and catchers reported this week and position players report next week. The off-season was very busy and very exciting for the Cubs. The prayers of millions of Cubs fans were answered when the Tribune Company opened up their wallet big time. It reminds me of the time I went to a restaurant for lunch and found out they offered a 25-foot all-you-can-eat ice cream buffet. I was so excited I couldn’t stop smiling.

But there’s something about this off-season that is unsettling to me. Just like my AYCE ice cream binge, a nasty headache followed the sugar overload. And although I’m normally a “glass is half full” kind of guy, especially when it comes to the Cubs, I have to admit that the sugar rush of the off-season is wearing off and I’m starting to feel the crash coming on.

During the past off-season, the Cubs spent like drunken sailors. They signed Aramis Ramiez, Alfonso Soriano, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Mark DeRosa, Daryle Ward, and Cliff Floyd. When all is said and done (including Zambrano’s new contract), the Cubs will have a payroll pushing $130 million. Trust me, that’s not a complaint. I’ve opined for some time that an organization like the Cubs (big market and wealthy corporate owner) should be spending around $125 million per year.

I’m not upset about the dollars spent. What I’m concerned about is what the Cubs got for all of that money. First, let me tell you what they should have gotten: total domination.

In a division like the NL Central (i.e. weaker teams with no really big spenders), $130 million should buy more than a competitive team. It should buy a sure thing, or at least as much of a sure thing as you can get with any endeavor that involves humans.

The payroll numbers for each of the teams have not been finalized yet, but in round numbers, here’s how much the other NL Central teams will be spending in 2007:

Houston Astros $90 million
St. Louis Cardinals $90 million
Cincinnati Reds $65 million
Milwaukee Brewers $60 million
Pittsburgh Pirates $50 million

The Cubs are spending more than 40% more than their next closet rivals, and yet they are by no means the prohibitive favorite to win the division. They are spending more than twice as much as Milwaukee and many pundits are predicting that the Brewers will be the team to beat in 2007.

Obviously, money alone does not buy championships (just ask George Steinbrenner), but spending so much more money than the other teams in the division should at least give the Cubs a competitive advantage. Unfortunately, at least at this point, it doesn’t look like that is going to be the case.

I’m not sure who is to blame for this. I guess it starts with the hole that was the 2006 team. Entering the off-season, the Cubs had to improve quite a bit just to get back to being a .500 team.

The market also contributed to the Cubs having to spend a lot more than they should have had to spend just to be competitive. The price of pitching in particular went through the roof, and the Cubs needed pitching.

Finally, Jim Hendry has to accept part of the blame, not just for building the ineffective 2006 team, but also for not spending money in the off-season as effectively as he could have (although it’s easier to say that than to actually point to the specific deals he should have or could have made).

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not ready to go into panic mode or write the season off. In fact, just the opposite. I’m stoked about the season and I’m optimistic about the Cubs chances. And I’m sure I’ll go back to my positive, optimistic, homerish self very soon. But in the back of my mind, I will remain concerned that it’s all going to fall apart and a team that spent half as much as the Cubs will win the NL Central.

2007 NL Central Predictions

2007-02-15T17:23:00.000-06:00

The Pittsburgh Lumber Company (Pirates Blog) has posted a really good article predicting the 2007 NL Central. I’ll be posting my own predictions later during Spring Training, but I wanted to share this article with you because I think it was really well done.

The link for the article is here.

The contribution from Red Hot Mama (Reds Blog) is delusional, but is well written and funny.

Enjoy!

A New Perspective on Zambrano's Contract Demands

2007-02-14T19:20:00.000-06:00

The news about Carlos Zambrano’s “mini tantrum” on WGN Radio is all over the news. Yesterday’s post detailed Z’s remarks, but in a nutshell he said he wants a long-term deal from the Cubs at Barry Zito-type money, or he’s walking away from the Cubs after the 2007 season.

Jim Hendry responded today with what I thought were rather low-key, unconcerned comments:

"Basically, that statement has never been conveyed to me," Hendry said. "Carlos and his representatives have always made it clear that the Cubs are where he wants to be. I certainly have no problem with a player with five-plus years wanting to have a deal by Opening Day, but if you don't have one, it doesn't necessarily mean there will be a parting of ways."

I spent the day thinking about this, and I think it would be a mistake to sign Z to a long-term deal right now. There really is no reason to sign him long-term. If we’ve learned anything from Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, it’s that even the most promising pitchers get injured. What if the Cubs sign Z to a five (or six or seven) year deal and then Z blows out his elbow and needs Tommy John surgery? I know it could happen anytime, and that’s just my point. Why sign Z long-term if you don’t have to.

Instead, if I was Jim Hendry I would avoid arbitration with Z by agreeing to a one-year, $13-14 million deal. Heck, pay him the $15.5 million he’s asking for. The goal is to keep him happy for a year so the Cubs can negotiate a long-term deal late in the season or early next off-season. And if he gets hurt or pitches horribly during the 2007 campaign, the Cubs have the luxury of re-evaluating their needs before negotiating with Z. Sure, it might cost a couple of million dollars extra to handle things this way, but it will be worth it if it keeps Z happy and in love with the Cubs.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

I’m a big Steve Stone fan. I think he is one of the best analysts I have ever heard and I really wish he was back doing Cubs games on CSN/WGN. Alas, that is not to be this year anyway. Stone remains close with Cubs President John McDonough, so maybe something can be worked out in the future.

In the meantime, Stone has signed on to do analysis on Chicago’s WSCR radio. Having more Stone on “the Score” is welcome if for no other reason than to get a little more Cubs talk on the White Sox flagship station. The steady diet of White Sox talk frustrates some Cubs fans, so Stone’s excellent commentary will be a nice break from all of the Southside banter.

Zambrano Threatens to Leave If He Doesn't Get His Way

2007-02-13T22:26:00.000-06:00

Carlos Zambrano is threatening to look elsewhere for employment if the Cubs don’t give him what he’s asking for. In an interview on WGN Radio, Zambrano said:

“I'm ready to sign, and I would do my job anyway with the Cubs this year. Whatever happens, I don't want to know [anything] about a contract during the season. I want to sign with the Cubs before the season starts. If they don't sign me, sorry, but I must go. That's what Carlos Zambrano thinks."

As I’ve stated before, Zambrano is a proud guy who wears his heart on his sleeve (and suddenly speaks in the third person). But let’s be honest, Z and his agent asked for too much money in arbitration. They asked for $15.5 million while the Cubs offered a fair $11.025 million. Remember, Z is arbitration eligible, he’s not a free agent. Z’s asking price might be reasonable for the FA market, but he’s still a year away from that.

Even so, Jim Hendry needs to lock up his ace with a long-term contract and he needs to do it before opening day. Even better, get it done before February 20 and both sides can avoid arbitration.

I’ve got to believe that the two sides will eventually get together. Z is going to get his money and has expressed a desire to stay with the Cubs. The Cubs have spent a fortune signing players this off-season. They would be foolish to spend all of that money and then devastate their rotation by letting Z go. The deal will eventually get done.

That’s what Lou Mindar thinks.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

In other news, the Cubs traded Jae Kuk Ryu to the D-Rays for two prospects. Ryu was going nowhere with the Cubs and will now have the opportunity to crack the D-Rays rotation. In return for Ryu, the Cubs got RHP Greg Reinhard and OF Andy Lopez.

The 23-year old Reinhard pitched in single-A last year and has a combined 8-13 record and a 4.29 ERA in two minor league seasons.. He is a former 5th round draft pick who has some upside potential.

Lopez is only 20-years old. He spent the past two years playing Rookie Ball in the Appalachian League. Lopez will likely start the year in Peoria.

Still No Deal for Z; Prior Tougher Than You Think

2007-02-12T18:38:00.000-06:00

I just spent the past week in Florida. Man, it was nice being in 75 degree temps while everyone back home was suffering with temps of 25-35 degrees below zero.

I really thought that the Cubs and Carlos Zambrano would reach a long-term deal while I was gone, but it doesn’t look like they’ve made any progress. I still expect the two sides to avoid arbitration, even if they just agree to a one-year deal and continue to talk about a long-term contract. Going to arbitration with the sensitive and emotional Zambrano could backfire on the Cubs.

I also had an idea during my vacation about writing an article about why Mark Prior has gotten such a bad rap over the years. My thesis is that although Prior has been on the DL eight times in the past three years, it is wrong to call into question his commitment, toughness, and even his manhood. I had this great article in mind, but then I couldn’t find anywhere on the Internet where a player’s trips to the DL are chronicled.

Here’s what I do know: Of the eight times Prior has been on the DL, three of those trips occurred in 2006. Prior had a shoulder injury and an oblique strain that kept him on the DL during the season. At the end of the year he was sent to the DL for what was described as congenital looseness in his shoulder. In other words, Prior has a congenital condition in his shoulder that makes it looser and more “sloppy” than most people’s shoulders.

On two other occasions, Prior was placed on the DL after being hurt during a game. I remember one time he injured himself when he ran into Marcus Giles. Another time I think he was injured when a ball was hit back at him. In both of these cases, it’s hardly a case of a guy whose not tough just being a baby and refusing to play because of a hangnail.

My whole point is that Prior has had a tough three years (2004-2006), but it’s not a lack of toughness that has landed him on the DL. He’s had legitimate injuries, some that occurred while playing aggressively, and he’s struggled with a congenital problem with his shoulder. If I could have only found all of the facts on Prior’s injuries, this would have been such a good article.

I understand people being tired of hearing about Prior’s potential and his perfect mechanics, only to see him placed on the DL time and time again. But I suspect that there is no one more sick of it than Prior himself.

The truth is, injuries have hampered what was once viewed as a “can’t miss” career for Prior. But he is still young (just 26) and he still shows a tremendous amount of potential. At the moment both Prior and the Cubs are reporting that he is healthy and is ready for Spring Training. If he can stay healthy, Prior should have a breakout year and the Cubs should have one of the best and deepest rotations in the NL.

Of course, Prior staying healthy all year is a big “if.” But if he ends up on the DL yet again, it won’t be because he lacks commitment or toughness. It will simply be because he has suffered yet another legitimate injury.

Cubs, Prior Agree to Deal; Zambrano is Next

2007-02-02T20:00:00.000-06:00

Although I’m a couple days late on this, the Cubs and P Mark Prior avoided salary arbitration and agreed to a one-year, $3.575 million contract. The agreement includes a bonus for starting 27 games, and another $150,000 bonus for starting 30 games.

The oft-injured Prior is in a make or break situation with the Cubs. Although the right-hander continues to have great potential, it is likely that the Cubs will cut bait after this year if Prior doesn’t realize some of that potential. While it is true that another team will probably be willing to throw some money at Prior next off-season even if he doesn’t pitch much or well in 2007, the Cubs are likely done spending money on his unrealized potential.

Having said that, I remain cautiously optimistic that Prior will rebound in 2007. At the moment, he appears healthy and prepared to do the hard work necessary to come back from injury. I’m not ready to say he’ll return to his 2003 form, but I do expect him to battle for a place in the starting rotation and will make a positive contribution to the team.

Prior’s signing leaves only Carlos Zambrano without a deal for 2007. The Cubs and Zambrano are rather far apart in the numbers they submitted for arbitration and the rumor over the past few days is that the two sides may not be able to reach a long term agreement before the arbitration hearing.

The arbitration process is set up to where a team necessarily has to bash their own player in order to influence the arbitrator. Everyone understands that the process is set up this way, but that will not stop the very emotional Zambrano from taking exception with the things Jim Hendry has to say about him as part of the process. Worst case scenario, the Cubs could win the arbitration proceeding, but end up alienating their best pitcher to the point where he loses interest in signing with the Cubs before testing the free agency waters.

My personal opinion is that at the moment, Zambrano is not worth the $15.5 million he is asking for in arbitration. The Cubs agree, but Zambrano and his agent are acting as if Z is already a free agent and they are asking for free agent money. The best thing Hendry can do at this point is work with Zambrano in a way that allows Z to save face while still getting a lucrative, long-term contract. Because with Zambrano, it’s not just about the money. It’s about the money and his pride.

Dayn Perry Strikes Out with Article

2007-01-26T20:40:00.000-06:00

I’m in a bit of a bad mood. I’m tired and cranky, so I’ve decided to take it out on Dayn Perry from Foxsports.com. Perry wrote an article entitled “Cubs Only Have A Decent Shot to Win NL Central,” which to start with is a horrible headline. Even if the article itself proves the headline, it is still a horrible title for an article.

In the article, Perry makes some observations about the Cubs that are wrong, while others are just plain absurd. For instance:

“Long-term, the contracts doled out to Soriano (eight years), Lilly (four years), DeRosa (three years), and Marquis (three years) make little sense.”

Perry is correct that the contracts make little sense, unless you first consider that 1) the market demanded these contracts, so if Hendry didn’t offer the contracts, someone else would have, and 2) by league rules, the Cubs are required to field a team and without these contracts, the Cubs wouldn’t have had enough players.

“But Hendry’s in job-saving mode, and if that means mortgaging the long-term health of the organization, then so be it.”

Why does Perry feel the long-term health of the team is in danger because Hendry signed some players to multi-year contracts? True, Soriano’s contract is unusually long, but Hendry had no option if he was going to sign Soriano. Without the eighth year of the contract, Soriano would have likely been an LA Angel.

As for the other examples Perry used, how many players can he point to that were in demand this off-season that signed one-year contracts? This is especially true of starting pitchers. Considering the way the market operated this off-season, the contracts of DeRosa, Lilly, and Marquis are not unusual at all.

“The Cubs’ moves are of course noteworthy, but the biggest thing in the Cubs favor – at least in the here and now – is that they toil in baseball’s weakest division.”

This is one of those things that, if you say it enough, you actually start to believe it. I think a very compelling argument can be made that the NL West was actually a weaker division than the NL Central in 2006, but regardless, consider this fact: For the past three seasons, the NL Central has provided the NL’s entry in the World Series, with the Cardinals winning the Fall Classic last year. Somehow that doesn’t sound like the weakest division to me.

“However, if the Cubs are going to return to the postseason for the first time since 2003…[Derrick] Lee must stay healthy.”

Why even discuss this? Derrick Lee has not spent a lot of time on the DL. Last year’s injury to his wrist was a fluke and Lee claims that he is 100% healed.

“The annual refrain is that Mark Prior needs to work 200 or so innings, and this year is no different.”

Wrong. The Cubs pitching staff has been built with the thought that Prior will not be available all year. The starting five should be Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, Jason Marquis, and most likely Wade Miller. In the wings are Neal Cotts, Sean Marshall, and Juan Mateo. If Prior doesn’t throw a pitch all year, the rotation is set. If he’s available and effective, the rotation is even better.

“Manager Lou Pinella needs to resist the temptation to bat Soriano in the leadoff spot. Soriano is a great power source, but he’s not an on-base threat, which is what the table setter needs to be.”

In theory, Perry may be right. But in fact, he is wrong. Soriano has been more productive in his career as a leadoff hitter than he has been hitting in any other spot in the order. Plus, if Frank Robinson felt batting Soriano leadoff with the Nationals last year was a good idea, that’s good enough for me.

“Jacque Jones must be platooned. Religiously. Jones has never been able to hit lefties, and with Matt Murton on the roster (and now out of a starting job) there’s no need to run him out there against port-siders.”

First, Jacque Jones has never been platooned in his career and he has somehow put together a rather nice career. During a miserable 2006 for the Cubs, Jones was a bright spot, hitting .285 with 27 HR and 81 RBI. True, Jones does not hit lefties very well, but to say he must be platooned in order for the Cubs to have a chance of returning to the playoffs is a huge, unsupported overstatement.

By the way, when did Matt Murton lose his starting job? According to both Hendry and Piniella, Murton is the starting left fielder. According to the depth chart on Cubs.com, Murton is still the starting left fielder. Where does Perry get his information?

“The pitching staff needs to continue racking up the strikeouts. The Cubs’ team defense, particularly in the outfield, is lacking. So the pitching staff, which led the NL in whiffs last season, must keep the ball out of play as often as possible.”

Striking out opposing hitters is a good thing, but saying it is necessary for the Cubs to make the postseason is nonsensical.

If the Yankees or Red Sox had made the moves in the off-season that the Cubs have made, Perry likely would have praised the teams’ efforts to build a winner after a down year. But because it was the Cubs making the moves, Perry felt obligated to be negative about the team’s off-season. It’s an old story. The Cubs are an easy target. But Perry does a poor job of supporting his argument. Plus, did I mention the article has a horrible title?

Cubs Say Goodbye to Glendon Rusch

2007-01-25T17:21:00.000-06:00

The Cubs announced they have released pitcher Glendon Rusch to make room on the 40-man roster for Cliff Floyd and Jeff Samardzjia. Rusch was scheduled to earn $3.25 million in 2007.

Although you’re not going to get any tearful goodbyes from me, there was a time when I was very high on Rusch. I thought he was a guy who could really contribute for the Cubs. And although he did have some bright moments for the Northsiders, I don’t think there are many fans who are sad to seem him go.

During a miserable 2006 season, Rusch was diagnosed with a blood clot that ended his season and required him to take blood thinning medications. While on the meds, Rusch is prohibited from playing for fear he’ll get hit with the ball or otherwise cut. The earliest he could have come back to play is in August or September, and there was some speculation that he was contemplating retirement.

Assuming no other MLB team picks Rusch up during the 2007 campaign, the Cubs will be on the hook for the entire amount of Rusch’s contract. If he is picked up, the team signing him will pay the league minimum and the Cubs will be responsible for the balance of the contract.

Someday is Today

2007-01-24T21:40:00.000-06:00

Cliff Floyd is a Cub…finally. The former Mets OF and the Cubs agreed to a one-year, $3 million contract that is full of incentives, vesting options, etc. Rather than trying to explain it myself, here is what Jason Stark had to say:

“Cliff Floyd’s contract with the Cubs is so flexible and creatively structured, it can turn into anything from a one-year, $3 million deal to a two-year, $17.5 million deal.

There is just a one-year guarantee, at $3 million. But it contains a player option, a club option and a vesting option for 2008. If the option vests (at 425 plate appearances or 100 games started), Floyd has the right to opt out next winter and become a free agent. Otherwise, the club holds the option.

Floyd can earn up to $7.5 million in 2007 if he's healthy enough to reach all of his plate-appearance, games-played and roster incentive levels.

He can make up to $17.5 million over two years if he has 550 plate appearances in each of the next two years. He would make $15.5 million if he gets 500 plate appearances in each of the next two years.”

The idea of signing Floyd doesn’t bother me. In fact, I think he will be a valuable player off the bench. But his contract leads me to believe that he (and maybe the Cubs) thinks he’s going to see a considerable amount of playing time. If he does, it will likely be at Matt Murton’s expense. That’s the part of the signing that I don’t like.

Last year, Murton proved that he is a capable major league LF. Murton led the Cubs in 2006 with a .297 batting average. He also had an OBP of .365 and SLG of .444. As a fielder, Murton proved that he is capable, if not spectacular.

If Murton has a weakness it is that he does not have the power you’d like to see from a corner outfielder. In 144 games in 2006, Murton hit 13 HR and a total of 38 extra base hits. However, he is still relatively young and his power numbers may increase as he matures as a ball player.

Matt Murton would seem to be the future for the Cubs in LF. It doesn’t make sense to bring in an injury prone veteran like Floyd to take a significant number of ABs away from him.

When Piniella calls me for advice on how to use Murton and Floyd (which he is sure to do), my suggestion will be to give Murton the majority of the playing time and just use Floyd against some of the league’s tougher right-handers and to give Murton some occasional rest. I’ll also suggest that Piniella use Floyd as the DH during away inter-league games. Piniella will probably chastise me for being so obvious with this last suggestion, but that’s just how Lou is.

Floyd to Sign with Cubs (Someday)

2007-01-22T21:25:00.000-06:00

For the past month, media outlets from across the country have been reporting that the Cubs are on the verge of signing OF Cliff Floyd. Every few days a new story is published, but the deal is yet to get done.

The media is at it again today, reporting that a deal between the Cubs and Floyd is imminent. However, nothing in any of the stories is new. None of the stories explain why the signing has been put on hold until now, none predict what moves have to first be made in order for the Cubs to sign Floyd, and none give a good explanation as to why the Cubs are looking to add Floyd to their roster. It’s all the same story, and sooner or later it may prove to be true.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

I don’t like knee jerk reactions. Knee jerk reactions are usually poorly thought out, over-reactive, and often plain wrong. That’s why I hated it when I had a knee jerk reaction to a report this morning that Alfonso Soriano had agreed to play CF next year.

Why put Soriano in CF? I thought Soriano was going to play RF and Jacque Jones (or another short term solution) was going to play CF until Felix Pie is ready. What happened to that plan?

Of course, if you take a second to think about it, this plan probably makes sense. It will likely be easier for Soriano to learn to play CF instead of the much more difficult RF at Wrigley. Jones is already accustomed to Wrigley Field’s RF, so why not just leave him there? When he’s ready, Felix Pie can play RF. He has a tremendous arm and is well suited to be a right fielder. If Jones is just going to hold a spot for Pie, it can just as easily be RF as CF. And if Jones ends up being traded (a possibility that becomes more distant every day), Cliff Floyd (assuming he signs with the Cubs) can hold down RF until Pie is ready.

I’m swearing off knee jerk reactions, at least until something else happens that triggers an illogical emotional outburst out of me.

Samardzija Chooses Cubs Over NFL

2007-01-19T16:31:00.000-06:00

The Cubs announced today that pitcher Jeff Samardzija has committed to playing baseball in the future and has signed a five year, $10 million contract with the Cubs. The former Notre Dame WR was thought to be pursuing a two sport career, but he has opted instead to only play baseball.

Samardzija showed promise last year while pitching at single-A Boise and Peoria. He pitched a total of 30 innings, giving up nine earned runs and posting an ERA of 2.70. Samardzija also went 8-2 with a 4.33 ERA pitching in 2006 for Notre Dame.

I guess I don’t understand all of the hoopla surrounding this signing. Samardzija is a talented prospect with a lot of upside who also has a long way to go before he is ready to be a big league pitcher. As has happened to so many before, Samardzija could turn out to be run-of-the-mill or suffer from injury problems. There’s just a long way to go before the Cubs should get too excited about him.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not trying to be negative. I just don’t think the signing is that big of a deal. Some people are talking about Samardzija being a top of the rotation starter as soon as 2008. That seems unlikely. The more likely scenario is that in 2009 or 2010, Samardzija makes a contribution to the big club.

I’m happy Samardzija has decided to concentrate on baseball. I definitely think it was the right decision. But I don’t think it is cause for celebration (unless you’re just looking for any old reason to celebrate).

Zambrano and Prior Go To Arbitration

2007-01-17T21:48:00.000-06:00

After avoiding arbitration and agreeing to a 2-year/$2.5 million deal with Will Ohman, Jim Hendry and the Cubs will next deal with pitchers Carlos Zambrano and Mark Prior. Zambrano is asking for $15.5 million next year and the Cubs have offered him $11.025 million. Prior is asking for $3.875 million in 2007 while the Cubs are offering $3.4 million

Zambrano’s demand doesn’t sound outrageous considering what middle-of-the-road pitchers received as free agents this off-season. But Zambrano is not a free agent and probably shouldn’t expect to receive that much. The Cubs offer seems fair.

Having said that, it may be a moot point. The Cubs would like to sign Zambrano to a long term deal that would feature a lower salary in 2007 and perhaps a “hometown discount” for the life of the deal. Zambrano may like the long-term contract idea, but I wouldn’t expect him to leave too much money on the table. There are planty of teams that will be willing to pay Zambrano’s asking price if the Cubs can’t agree with the right-hander on a long-term deal.

Prior made $3.65 million in 2007. For that money, Prior went 1-6 with a 7.21 ERA. Doesn’t it seem weird that he would ask for a raise after a year like that. Well, that’s part of big-time baseball in America. So Prior asked for a modest pay increase of $225,000 and the Cubs offered Prior $250,000 less than he made in 2006.

I understand that Cubs fans have grown weary of Prior’s one-injury-after-another act, but I think the criticism is a bit unfair. It’s not like he hurt himself sneezing. Prior’s injuries have either been competition related (i.e. running into Marcus Giles) or congenital (i.e. being born with a loose shoulder). It doesn’t seem to me that he’s a slacker.

Prior has a ton of potential and could still end up being the superstar people thought he would be a few years ago. He just needs to stay off the DL. Now while he is still relatively inexpensive is no time to give up on Prior.

Jones Trade to Pittsburgh?

2007-01-16T21:33:00.000-06:00

Is Jacque Jones heading to the Pirates? Maybe, but probably not.

The Pirates are desperately looking for a left-handed bat for their line-up and they have eagerly placed reliever Mike Gonzalez on the trading block in order to make it happen. During the majority of the off-season, the Bucs target has been Atlanta’s 1B Adam LaRoche. Atlanta is interested, but Braves GM John Schuerholz wants the Bucs to throw in another starter, a concession Pittsburgh has been unwilling to make.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s ownership group is putting a lot of pressure on GM Dave Littlefield to get a deal done before Spring Training. So Littlefield has expanded his search to include D-Back’s 3B Chad Tracy. If a deal could get done, the Pirates would move Tracy to 1B. However, Littlefield is running into the same problem with Arizona that he had with Atlanta; the D-Backs want more than just Mike Gonzalez.

The only potential FA left-handed power hitter who is available and of any interest, is former Red Sox OF Trot Nixon. But from Pittsburgh’s perspective, Nixon is too old. At 32, the Pirates would like someone younger than Nixon.

Other trade possibilities include Geoff Jenkins of the Brewers and the Cubs Jacque Jones. However, there are problems with both of these scenarios. For Jenkins, he is the same age as Nixon. However, the Brewers would likely make the deal if Pittsburgh showed an interest. The Brewers would be happy to be rid of Jenkins’ contract and one of their excess outfielders.

With Jones, my guess is that the Cubs would want more than Gonzalez (or at least they should), but Jones age is also a concern. He is only one year younger than Nixon and Jenkins at 31-years of age. However, Jones seems much younger. He still has speed, agility, and a career that hasn’t seen much DL time. Despite his age, Jones could be the type of player the Bucs are looking for.

Even so, a deal between the Cubs and Pirates is unlikely. The Pirates have other options and the Cubs would probably want more than Pittsburgh is willing to give up. But as Spring Training approaches, who knows what might happen?

Cubs Cafe Recognized by TCR

2007-01-14T20:18:00.000-06:00

I was reading The Cub Reporter, the preeminent Cubs blog on the web, when I came across this little ditty:

“As I was poking around the web, there were a few members of the Cubs blog army that I found something worth reading, so I thought they deserved a shout out. So go check out Cubs Cafe, A Hundred Next Years, Wrigleyville23 and the (mostly) satirical Fire Lou Piniella! and say hi.”

Wow! The Cubs Café has been recognized as “something worth reading” by Rob G. at TCR. That is so cool!

Rob and the rest of the gang at TCR do a fantastic job of covering the world of all things Cubs related. It was a thrill to have them recognize Cubs Café in their Friday, January 12, 2007 post.

Thanks to Rob and everyone at TCR for the shout out. It is much appreciated.

Two Solutions for Center Field

2007-01-11T17:29:00.000-06:00

Ken Rosenthal from Fox Sports is reporting that the Cubs are interested in adding either Steve Finley or Darin Erstad to play CF until prospect Felix Pie is ready to assume the position. He also suggested that the Cubs could sign Bernie Williams to play CF and mentor Pie.

Finley is 42-years old and played last year with the San Francisco Giants. He hit .246 in 139 games with 6 HR and 40 RBI. He is a career .272 hitter with 303 HR and 1165 RBI.

The 32-year old Erstad only had 95 at-bats last year with the LA Angels. He hit .221 with 0 HR and 5 RBI. For his career, Erstad is a .286 hitter with 114 HR and 625 RBI.

Although Finley is 10 years older that Erstad, he may be physically more able to handle the rigors of playing every day in CF. Finley has kept himself in excellent shape while Erstad has suffered from several injuries, including an ankle injury that required surgery and kept him on the sidelines for most of 2006.

The idea of having Williams mentor Felix Pie is Rosenthal’s idea, not Jim Hendry’s. It appears that Rosenthal was just making a suggestion and that the Cubs do not have an interest, at least not right now, in Williams.

There are two legitimate solutions to the Cubs CF situation in 2007 and neither of them involves Finley, Erstad, or Williams. The first option is playing Jacque Jones in CF. He may want to be traded, but the Cubs need to do what is in the team’s best interest. Jones is a cost-effective solution for CF and he can do a good job out there for the entire year in the event Pie isn’t ready for primetime in 2007.

The other solution is for the Cubs to trade for a CF that will play there every day and into the future. Pie is one of the Cubs top prospects, but he is not guaranteed to be a successful MLB player. Corey Patterson, Jerome Walton, and Tuffy Rhodes were all can’t miss outfielders who missed. If the Cubs have the opportunity to add someone like Carl Crawford (or even Andruw Jones), they should jump at the chance. I hope Pie turns out to be a great CF, but there are no guarantees. So why risk the future of the team on an unproven prospect?

These are the only two scenarios the Cubs should be pursuing. Adding Finley, Erstad or Williams to play CF is unnecessary and all three options have too much downside and not enough upside. There’s no reason to take the risk.

* * * * *

Okay, I'm not saying this is the solution for the Cubs CF opening. I'm not even saying it is a good idea. Here's what I know: The Braves are interested in trading Andruw Jones. Jones is in the final year of his contract and the Braves do not believe they will be able to afford to keep him past 2007.

I also know that the Braves have expressed interest in Rocco Baldelli, the D-Rays CF. The D-Rays are open to trading Baldelli, but it doesn't appear that the Braves have the young pitching that the D-Rays would want in exchange for him.

The Cubs do have young pitching. In fact, although the saying is that you can never have too much pitching, the Cubs currently have more pitchers than they have places to put them. What if the Cubs were to put together a package of young pitchers to go to the D-Rays. The D-Rays in turn would send Baldelli to Atlanta and the Braves would send Jones to the Cubs.

For the Cubs, they would get at least one year of Andruw Jones before he becomes a FA. They would also have the first shot at re-signing him. The Braves would get something of value for Jones before he goes off and signs with another team in 2008 and the D-Rays would get the young, inexpensive pitchers they want. Sounds great, doesn't it?

Well, maybe not great. If this deal would work, why wouldn't the Cubs just trade with Tampa Bay for Baldelli? He's not as good as Jones, but he's younger, less expensive, and he's signed through 2008 with two years of club options after that. Plus, even though he may not be as good as Jones, he's no slouch. In 92 games with TB last year he hit .302 with 16 HR and 57 RBI. His OBP was .339 and his SLG was .533. Hmm, maybe the Cubs should just work this deal with TB and cut Atlanta out of it.

The other reason not to do the deal for Jones is that the Cubs will be giving up two or three arms for what could turn into a one-year rental of Jones. That's what happened with Juan Pierre and I don't think anyone was too happy about that deal once it was over. Dealing directly for Baldelli would cost the same two or three young arms, but the return would be a CF that would be around for the foreseeable future.

Okay, I've actually talked myself out of including Andruw Jones in the deal. But I do like the idea of going after Baldelli. And the Baldelli trade idea supports another point I made earlier.

Who knows for sure what kind of player Felix Pie is going to be? Will he ever be as good as Rocco Baldelli is now? Does it make sense to look for ways to keep CF open for when Pie is ready or would it make more sense to get a guy like Baldelli who is already getting the job done. Sure, if you go with Baldelli you risk the chance that Felix Pie could really turn into something special. On the other hand, the Cubs thought Tuffy Rhodes, Jerome Walton and Corey Patterson were really going to be something special and none of them turned out to have the type of career they were projected to have. Personally, I've talked myself into Baldelli.

Improving the Hall of Fame Vote

2007-01-10T20:09:00.000-06:00

Richard Justice is one of the best baseball writers in the country. Maybe the best. He is smart, witty, and he almost always gets the story right. And when he doesn’t, he admits it, which I like.

In an entry to his blog, Justice proposed an idea that I have had for a while. (NOTE: Isn’t that what makes other people smart; the fact that they agree with you?) Justice suggests that the Baseball Hall of Fame have someone other than sportswriters vote for the Hall.

Justice writes:

“I did cast my first vote four or five years ago and have done so every year since. I'm uncomfortable doing this and don't know if I'll fill out another. I'm just not sure this is the kind of thing newspaper reporters should be involved in. Our job should be to cover the news, not make it.”

That last line is the one that really caught my attention. Justice is completely right. Newspaper reporters should be reporting the story. They shouldn’t be in the middle of it. And the vote for the HOF isn’t just another story. Who does or doesn’t get into the HOF is a decision that has repercussions for years and years. Baseball writers, with the grudges and agendas they have developed over the years for and against certain ball players, should not be put in the position of making this important decision.

The HOF should establish a blue ribbon panel made up of baseball historians, academics, former players, members of the HOF, fans, and baseball writers. This panel should be by invitation only and should not be determined by how long a certain writer has covered the game. If the sportswriters want more control, they could appoint the baseball writers who sit on the panel.

Obviously, this proposal is not without its flaws, but it has merits that having only baseball writers vote does not. For instance, during the recent HOF vote, two baseball writers submitted blank ballots. One of them said it was because he didn’t have enough information on which to vote. To me, it sounds like the writer was shirking his responsibility and was just looking for his own 15 minutes of fame. If he doesn’t want to vote, then he should have refused the ballot. Members of the blue ribbon panel will be determined by invitation only. If they accept the invitation, then they accept the responsibility to actually vote.

If you don’t like my blue ribbon panel idea, then I’m sure there is another idea out there that would work and would be better than the current system. I’d be in favor of almost anything that gets the baseball writers out of the business of making news and back to the business of reporting it.

Ripken, Gwynn Welcomed to Hall

2007-01-09T14:54:00.000-06:00

Only two guys made it into the HOF this year. As expected, Cal Ripken, Jr. and Tony Gwynn were elected by the Baseball Writers of America. Those getting close this year were Rich “Goose” Gossage, Jim Rice and Andre Dawson. Mark McGwire only received a little over 23% of the vote.

Most of the coverage of this years HOF election has focused on Mark McGwire and the steroids era. What should have been a celebration of all of the positive aspects of the game turned into an argument about who did or didn’t use performance enhancing drugs. Unfortunately, what has been somewhat lost in the discussion is the class and integrity that both Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn brought to the game.

Both Ripken and Gwynn played their entire careers with one team. They both showed up ready and excited to play every day. They were both talented players, great teammates, and terrific ambassadors of the game. They played the game the right way. In other words, they were prototypical of what a HOFer should be.

Who Will Make the HOF This Year?

2007-01-08T19:51:00.000-06:00

Tomorrow, the Baseball Hall of Fame will announce their class of 2007. Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken, Jr. are almost assured of being inducted on their first year on the ballot. I agree that these two should make it in, but there are others that are deserving as well.

If it were up to me (and I think there is an argument to be made that it should be), Goose Gossage, Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris would also be joining the HOF. ESPN’s Jayson Stark wrote an article detailing his votes. While I agree with almost everything Stark says, there are a couple of votes I can’t agree with.

First, Stark is voting for Dale Murphy. I used to be in favor of Murphy making the Hall. He was a very good player on some very bad Braves teams. He was a feared hitter at a time when feared hitter hit 30 HRs a year, not 73. And if any player ever deserved extra credit for being a “good character” guy, it would be Murphy. But after looking again at his stats and being brainwashed by all of the articles opposing his nomination, I’ve decided I don’t think Murphy is deserving of being in the Hall. Of course, now that I write this out, I feel dirty and cheap.

The other candidate that Stark voted for that I would not support is Jim Rice. I have to admit that I don’t know a great deal about Rice. I only saw him play a few times, so my knowledge of him is limited primarily to his stats. His stats are impressive, but not impressive enough for the Hall. Plus, Rice was a below average defender, a category that I admittedly probably put too much emphasis on.

While Murphy’s vote totals have been going down year after year, Rice’s vote totals have been increasing. In 2006 Rice received 64.8% of the vote. No one has ever received that many votes and not made it into the Hall.

Unfortunately for Rice and everyone else not named Ripken or Gwynn, it’s unlikely that any of them will be elected into the HOF this year. Voters rarely vote in more than a couple of candidates each year, and Gwynn and Ripkin are such obvious choices that it’s unlikely anyone else will make it in this year.

Of course, there is one other player that Stark voted for that I oppose and that is Mark McGwire. Since I wrote eloquently on this topic earlier, I won’t re-hash it here. You can read my wonderful analysis here. But there is one other thing I want to add that I didn’t cover previously.

A lot of allegations have been flying over the past five years concerning McGwire’s use of steroids. Some people have condemned McGuire while others have defended him. The one person that hasn’t had anything to say about it is McGwire. Even in front of Congress, McGwire refused to talk about whether he did or didn’t use steroids. He hasn’t had anything to say. And if he is not interested in defending his legacy, then why should I (or anyone else) defend it for him?

Cubs Interested in Free Agent Newhan

2007-01-04T12:11:00.000-06:00

Man, things are slow in Cubsville. But I did find one somewhat, kind of interesting piece of news. It was buried in an article in the Newark Star-Ledger where is said that both the Mets and Cubs are interested in signing FA David Newhan.

Newhan is a 33-year old outfielder who played last season with the Orioles. In 39 games he hit .252 with 4 HR and 18 RBI. He has a career batting average of .256 with 20 HR and 102 RBI.

This is the first I have heard about the Cubs having interest in Newhan. In fact, it is the first time I have heard Newhan’s name mentioned all off-season. I’m not sure what interest the Cubs would have in the former Oriole. They already have Angel Pagan and Daryle Ward competing for the 4th outfielder spot. Cliff Floyd has long been rumored to be joining that mix. I’m not sure why the Cubs would want to add another name to that competition.

But when things are slow, I’m happy to learn anything new about the Cubs. So if they have an interest in David Newhan, then let the speculation begin.

In other big, exciting, off-season news, the Cubs avoided arbitration with P Neal Cotts by signing him to a 1-year/$825,000 contract. If the Cubs make it to the World Series and Cotts is named WS MVP, he will earn a $150,000 bonus. I truly hope this is something we all have to worry about.

The signing of Cotts is good for everyone involved. Cotts gets a fair deal, the Cubs avoid arbitration, and it happened early enough so it is not a distraction to anyone. Most importantly, it gives me something to write about. And after all, isn’t that what the Cubs are all about?

January is a Depressing Month

2007-01-01T20:28:00.000-06:00

The Holidays are over, the New Year is here, and it’s almost time to go back to work. This time of year always depresses me. January is usually a pretty slow month for baseball. The Winter Meetings are a distant memory and pitchers and catchers don’t report for more than a month. I hope I can think of a few things to write about during the upcoming month.

One thing I can talk about is the Giants signing of Barry Zito. Wow, what a surprise. I thought the Mets were a virtual lock to sign the southpaw. I thought the Rangers might be a darkhorse, but I never figured the Giants would even get involved. I mean, they haven’t done much of anything this off-season to improve their team, so I didn’t think they’d be willing to spend $126 million over 7 years on one pitcher.

One article I read indicated that the Zito signing is more for the future than for 2007. In 2007 the Giants will be saddled with Barry Bonds and his contract. But once he is gone, the team will have much more flexibility to build a winner. There might be something to this argument, but that doesn’t explain why the team didn’t do a better job with the money they did spend this off-season. Zito should be good, but I’m not convinced that his signing by the Giants makes much sense.

Now that the Mets have lost out on Zito, where will they turn for pitching? They will have Tom Glavine back at the top of the rotation along with John Maine, Oliver Perez, and the ageless El Duque. Pedro Martinez should be back around the all-star break, but who know if he will be able to ever pitch effectively again. It will be interesting to see what the Mets do to address their pitching holes. They’ve spent a ton of money on position players. They’d be foolish to just stand pat.

Cliff Floyd Rumors Just Won't Stop

2006-12-15T20:53:00.000-06:00

I have to admit that I’m a little confused by all of the rumors that say Cliff Floyd will soon be a member of the Cubs. I’ve always liked Floyd. I like guys who hustle, get the most out of their talent, and seem like genuinely nice people. It doesn’t hurt that he grew up in the Chicago area either. But I just don’t see where he fits in with the 2007 Cubs.

If Floyd is being added to the Cubs to be a bench player, then I’m okay with signing him. But there are two problems with this possibility. First, despite his injury history, Floyd still has the potential to be a starting outfielder somewhere. Not for the Cubs, but somewhere. Plus, Floyd is a proud guy and I would guess that he still thinks of himself as a starter, not a bench guy.

Second, the rumor is that Floyd is looking for a $6 million a year pay day. That’s a lot of money for a guy destined to ride the pines. Plus, the Cubs just signed Daryle Ward for $1.05 million to be the left-handed bat off the bench. There’s nothing wrong with having another left-handed bat on the bench, but Floyd would be an expensive pinch hitter.

Of course, my fear, and the fear of a lot of Cubs fans, is that Floyd is being brought in to platoon in LF with Matt Murton. If that is the plan, it is a bad one. Murton proved last year that he can hit both right-handed and left-handed pitching. He is young and is bound to improve even more with additional at-bats. It makes no sense to stunt Murton’s growth by platooning him with Floyd.

Hendry has always had a soft spot for Floyd. Hendry recruited Floyd when he (Hendry) was coach at Creighton. Floyd opted for the bright lights and big money of MLB, but he and Hendry remained close. Hendry has shown an interest in Floyd in the past, but the situation was never right. The situation still isn’t right, but Hendry may force the issue anyway.

If Floyd can stay healthy, he’s a very good baseball player and an excellent hitter. Even so, the Cubs don’t have room for him unless he’s willing to be a reserve. Since this is unlikely, the Cubs should just say “no” to Floyd.

Bits and Pieces From the Cubs Front

2006-12-14T22:03:00.001-06:00

It's been a little slow the past few days for the Cubs, but that doesn’t mean that nothing is happening. Here are a few things in the works:

*** The deals for Jason Marquis and Daryle Ward are still not completed. The only hang up for both appears to be completing the player physicals. Both players are supposed to have their physicals done by the end of next week.

I have to admit, I don’t understand the delay. If I was being offered a big contract, I would be completing my physical right away. What if either player suffers some sort of career-ending injury? Would they be out of luck? For so much money, that’s not a risk I would be willing to take.

*** The Jacque Jones saga continues. During the Winter Meetings, the Sun-Times reported that Jones had requested a trade at the end of last season. Jones was interviewed on ESPN 2 and asked about the report. He danced all around it, but didn’t deny it. When Hendry was asked about it, he didn’t confirm it, but said that his policy is to try to accommodate a player that no longer wants to be part of the team. He then went on to state that he empathized with Jones’ struggles early in the 2006 season and that the Cubs had been very supportive of him. Despite this, Carrie Muskat from Cubs.com reported that Jones never asked for a trade. Okay, I’m confused…

*** Speaking of Muskat, she reported today that Felix Pie could be the starting CF for the Cubs in 2007. Her reasoning for this news was a bit puzzling to me. Pie is playing in the Dominican Republic and is batting .216 with 1 HR and 16 RBI. He’s not exactly setting the league on fire. But as Muskat explained, the Cubs are only concerned with Pie working on his defense. And according to Oneri Flieta, the Cubs player development director, Pie is doing a great job.

Even so, I don’t see any reason to rush Pie. He’s only 21-years old. There’s no urgency to move him up to the big club. What the Cubs need is a reliable stop gap to play CF in 2007.

At the moment, my vote goes to Jones. The team already has him, he’s reasonably priced, he’s an above-average fielder (albeit with a weak arm), and he bats left-handed. Jones is the perfect candidate. And when Pie is ready to move up, then the Cubs can trade Jones. Trust me, I like Vernon Wells, Andruw Jones and Carl Crawford, but according to Hendry, Pie is the CF of the future and his plan is to not do anything to block his path to the big club. If Pie is off limits in trade talks, then let Jones play CF this year and let Pie get more at-bats at AAA.

***Hendry made the rounds of the radio shows today. One of the most interesting things he said was that he very much dislikes signing free agents. He said that the Cubs were in a desperate situation and that he was forced to sign free agents this off-season, but that he would much prefer staying out of the free agent market.

He also spoke about the signing of Alfonso Soriano. He said that if the Cubs didn’t give Soriano an 8 year/$136 million contract, then someone else would have. Hendry said that he didn’t want to give Soriano an 8 year contract, but he was determined to do whatever it took to sign the outfielder, so he reluctantly offered 8-years.

*** Are the Cubs done signing free agents? Probably, but that doesn’t mean they won’t make any trades. Unfortunately, it still looks like they will trade Jones. But so far, it looks like they won’t get much back for him. In addition to being their best option for CF, this is another reason the Cubs shouldn’t trade the outfielder.

The Cubs also have too many bullpen arms. There are no rumored trades in the works, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Will Ohman, Michael Wuertz, Roberto Novoa, and/or Juan Mateo pitching elsewhere next year.

*** The Astros picked up P Jason Jennings from the Rockies in exchange for CF Willy Taveras and pitchers Taylor Buckholz and Jason Hirsch. The Astros also received P Miguel Ascencio in the deal.

The Cubs coveted the former Rockies pitcher this off-season, but could not put a deal together to acquire him. The 28-year old pitcher was 9-13 last year with a 3.78 ERA.

If the Cubs wanted to see more of Jennings, they are going to get their wish. Unfortunately, he’ll be wearing an Astros uniform when they do.

Not So Fast, Mr. Marquis

2006-12-10T18:42:00.000-06:00

Not so fast. Chris DeLuca at the Sun-Times is reporting that the deal between the Cubs and RHP Jason Marquis is not completed yet. DeLuca reports that although there is a verbal agreement in place, nothing has been signed. Even the number of years and amount per year are still up in the air.

My guess is that the deal will be completed next week, probably after Marquis takes his physical. Some teams won’t announce a signing until after the physical has been taken, others announce before the physical. The Cubs have done it both ways.

After thinking about adding Marquis to the rotation all day yesterday, I actually have come to accept it. There’s no doubt that Marquis had a bad year last year, but his unusually high ERA was due in large part to two very bad outings where he was left in the game to save the bullpen. He also did not have much help from the bullpen during the second half of the season, when his W-L record went south and his ERA went north.

Plus, Marquis is an excellent innings eater. He's averaged over 200 innings per year during his major league career and he does have a winning record over his career.

One thing that does concern me are the reports that Marquis could not get along with Tony LaRussa, Dave Duncan, or his teammates. I’ve got to believe that the reports are at least partially overblown, but it just might be that where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

So it looks like the Cubs are going to trot out a rotation that looks like this:

Zambrano
Lilly
Hill
Marquis
Prior/Miller/Marshall

That really isn’t a bad rotation. And if Prior is healthy and can get back to his old form… I know, we’ve been down that road before.

Cubs Sign Marquis

2006-12-09T09:31:00.000-06:00

The Cubs signed another starting pitcher today when they inked 26-year old Jason Marquis to a 3 year/$20 million deal. Marquis pitched for the Cardinals last year where he went 14-16 with a 6.02 ERA in 2006. He has a career record of 56-52 with a 4.55 ERA.

Marquis was very inconsistent in 2006 and was ultimately excluded from the Cards post-season roster. Marquis discovered a flaw in his mechanics after the season and worked with a private coach to fix the problem. Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild visited with Marquis after the World Series and reported to Cubs officials that Marquis’ mechanical problems had in fact been discovered and fixed.

As I’ve stated previously, I don’t think Marquis is the answer to the Cubs pitching woes. In fact, in recent days I have come to the conclusion that the Cubs would be better off starting the season with Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marshall, and Prior/Miller, and then pick up a starting pitcher (maybe Willis?) at the trade deadline. Marquis’ signing makes that scenario very unlikely.

So how can I spin this in a positive way? Well, it isn’t all bad news. Marquis has shown signs of being effective. In 2004, he was 15-7 with a 3.71 ERA with the Cards. So if he really has found and corrected the problem with his mechanics, perhaps he can return to his 2004 performance. Also, Marquis is a workhorse. Over the past three years he has averaged over 200 innings pitched per season. So that's good news.

I’m not a fan of the signing, but I’m not suicidal over it either. I’ll keep an open mind and hope for the best, but in the back of my mind I’m thinking, “This just wasn’t a smart move.”

Cubs Lose to Royals

2006-12-07T16:53:00.000-06:00

The Cubs lost to the Royals today in the Gil Meche sweepstakes. The Cubs and Blue Jays were supposed to be the leading candidates for Meche’s services. Each team was rumored to be offering a contract in the neighborhood of 4 years and $40 million. Then the Royals swept in and offered a contract of 5 years and $55 million. Meche grabbed the offer and the Cubs remain short one starting pitcher.

So where do the Cubs go from here? There are still a handful of FA pitchers out there. Barry Zito tops the list, but it is unlikely that the Cubs will get involved in that bidding.

Former St. Louis pitchers Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis, and Jeff Weaver are also still available. There’s a rumor floating around that the Cubs may be close to a deal on Marquis and have made a three year offer to Suppan. Of the three, I would much prefer Suppan.

Miguel Batista is also still available. Batista is interesting because he can either start or come out of the bullpen. If either Prior or Miller get healthy in 2007, they could be moved into the starting rotation and Batista would be moved into the pen. It would be a nice problem to have, but there have been no rumors connecting Batista to the Cubs.

Then there are always trade possibilities. Trades for either Jason Jennings (Colorado) or Jake Westbrook (Cleveland) have been discussed, but those possibilities look dead right now. Brad Penny is rumored to be available now that the Dodgers signed Jason Schmidt. The White Sox traded Freddy Garcia to Philadelphia and are rumored to be willing to trade Jon Garland, although they appear to be in serious negotiations with Houston on Garland. Philadelphia is willing to trade Jon Lieber, but do the Cubs really want Jon Lieber?

Then there’s my favorite. I would like the Cubs to pursue a trade with Florida for Dontrelle Willis. I’ve talked about this before and I still think it makes sense for both teams. I strongly believe that the Marlins are going to trade Willis, but it might not be until the trade deadline next year.

New York Newsday is reporting that the Dodgers and Cubs may be talking about Dodgers LHP Mark Hendrickson. The 32-year old Hendrickson (who is 6’9” tall) pitched for Toronto and Tampa Bay before joining the Dodgers in 2006 where he went 6-15 with a 4.21 ERA. If it is true that the Cubs and Dodgers are talking, it certainly is not very well reported.

In other Cubs news, the team is close to signing Daryle Ward to a one-year, $1.05 million contract. Ward will likely be used as a left-handed pinch hitter and an occasional fill-in at first base. The 31-year-old Ward hit .308 with 7 HRs and 26 RBI in limited action with the Nationals in 2006.

Rule 5 Draft Review

2006-12-07T11:19:00.000-06:00

The Cubs selected two players, sold one of them, and lost five players in the Rule 5 draft today.

The first player the Cubs selected was OF Josh Hamilton from Tampa Bay. Hamilton is 25 years old and was the first overall selection by the Devil Rays in the 1999 draft. The Cubs then turned around and sold Hamilton to the Cincinnati Reds.

Although a promising prospect, Hamilton has had some personal troubles. He has allegedly had run-ins with the police involving both drinking and cocaine use.

The Cubs also picked up James Henderson, a RHP, from the Washington Nationals. Henderson was originally selected in the 26th round of the 2003 draft. He had a 2-2 record with a 4.50 ERA for Class A Potomac in 2006.

The Cubs also lost five players in the draft. They are:

LHP Edward Campusano (selected by Milwaukee)
RHP Lincoln Holdzkom (selected by Houston)
IF Jason Smith (selected by Toronto)
IF Richard Lewis (selected by Kansas City)
RHP Andy Shipman (selected by Oakland)

Winter Meetings: Day 3

2006-12-06T21:19:00.000-06:00

Here are some notes from Day 3 at the Winter Meetings:

***The big news is that the Cubs signed FA lefty Ted Lilly. For the full scoop on the Lilly signing see here or here.

***Gil Meche is trying to decide who will make him a millionaire; the Cubs or Blue Jays. The Cubs are making a hard run at him, even having Lou Piniella phone him at home. Early in the day it appeared that the Cubs had the upper hand, but Toronto jumped right back in the picture. Having lost out on Lilly, the Blue Jays may be desperate to sign Meche. Whether he signs with the Cubs or Blue Jays, the contract will probably be very similar to Lilly’s.

***The Cubs traded Freddy “Boom-Boom” Bynum to the Baltimore Orioles for a player to be named later. The Cubs needed to make room on the 40 man roster to accommodate Ted Lilly. There was no word on who the PTBNL would be, but you can be sure it will be someone you’ve never heard of before and will likely not hear from again.

***Kenny Lofton continues to be on the Cubs radar. The team needs a CF, but they don’t want to block the path of budding star Felix Pie. Lofton is asking for $6 million, which seems awfully high to me, but he is still getting interest from several teams.

***No new trade rumors involving Jacque Jones today. Jones was on ESPN 2 last night and admitted (in a round about way) that he would prefer to play somewhere other than in Chicago next year. Jim Hendry also admitted that Jones would like to be traded and that he will try to accommodate the outfielder if the right deal can be made.

***GM Jim Hendry was rushed to the hospital complaining of chest pains. There was no immediate word on his condition, but Larry O’Brien, the agent for Ted Lilly, said that the deal for Lilly was signed while Hendry was hooked up to an EKG machine.

***According to Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post Dispatch, the Cubs have offered 3 years/ $30 million to right hander Jeff Suppan. The Cardinals offered $3 years/$20 million and apparently are not interested in getting in a bidding war over Suppan. Houston also has an interest in Suppan and is likely to overspend in order to add one of the more elite FA to their rotation. It will be interesting to see what the Cubs do if both Suppan and Meche accept their offers.

***Hendry said in an interview today that the price for FA pitching is ridiculous, but it’s still not as bad as the price to trade for starting pitching. The Cubs have shown interest in both Jason Jennings (Colorado) and Jake Westbrook (Cleveland), but the price has just been too high.

***Several outlets reported that the Dodgers had signed Jason Schmidt. But even after the announcement, agents for the former Giants starter were contacting other teams to let them know that the deal with the Dodgers was not completed. The hold up apparently is the requirement that Schmidt take a physical for the Dodgers. The physical is scheduled for tomorrow, and Schmidt’s agents want to keep all doors open until the deal with the Dodgers is done. The Cubs had reportedly offered Schmidt 4 years/ $44 million. The Dodgers deal is for 3 years and $47 million.

Cubs Land Lilly

2006-12-06T20:07:00.000-06:00

According to Ken Rosenthal at Fox Sports, the Cubs have signed LHP Ted Lilly. The 30-year old pitcher inked a deal with the Cubs for 4 years/$40 million.

The day started out with the Cubs, Blue Jays and Yankees being in the running for the pitcher. As the day progressed, the Blue Jays fell out of the running when the Cubs firmed up their offer. Lilly apparently told the Yankees that if they would match the Cubs offer, he would prefer to pitch for them. However, the Yankees were only luke warm on Lilly, preferring to pursue Andy Pettitte.

Later in the afternoon, Pettitte announced through his agent that he would pitch in 2007, with the Yankees and Astros having the best shot at signing the southpaw. Upon hearing the news on Pettitte, the Yankees decided they would not match the Cubs offer for Lilly and he decided to sign with the Cubs.

Lilly was 15-13 with the Blue Jays last year and had a 4.31 ERA. He is known as a fly ball pitcher, which could be a problem in Wrigley Field, particularly when the wind is blowing out. Lilly also has a history of arm injuries and has never exceeded 200 innings pitched in a season. In 2004 he threw 197.1 innings for Toronto, the most innings he has pitched in a season at the major league level.

Lilly’s talent level would slot him in as a #3 pitcher in the rotation. At the moment, he slots in as a #2 for the Cubs pending further off-season moves.

Although I’m not a huge fan of Ted Lilly, I think Jim Hendry did what he could do to shore up the Cubs starting rotation. Hendry flirted with Jason Schmidt, but was eventually outbid by the Dodgers. He is also dealing with Gil Meche and is rumored to be involved in the bidding for Jeff Suppan. The Cubs do not figure to be players in the Barry Zito sweepstakes.

Lilly is just one piece of the puzzle and by himself doesn’t put the Cubs over the top. However, his addition does improve the starting rotation and allows Hendry to zero in on one more starting pitcher.

Winter Meetings: Day 2

2006-12-05T20:13:00.000-06:00

Notes from Day 2 of the Winter Meetings:

***Last night, Steve Phillips reported on ESPN that the Cubs and Rockies were in the midst of talks that would send Jacque Jones to Colorado in return for pitcher Jason Jennings. Later, the report turned in to a three way deal involving Pittsburgh. However, ESPNs Jayson Stark threw the BS flag on the rumors earlier today and quoted an official with knowledge of the talks as saying there is “no way” that is going to happen. As they say, where there's smoke, there's fire, So stay tuned.
***Ken Rosenthal from Fox Sports is reporting that the Cubs and Blue Jays are the leading candidates for Ted Lilly. Lilly’s agent Larry O’Brien is continuing to talk to other teams, but it appears the Cubs and Blue Jays have the inside track.
***Amidst all of the trade talk involving Jacque Jones comes the rather surprising revelation that Jones requested a trade at the close of the 2006 season. Initial reports indicated that Jones was upset that Dusty Baker’s services were not retained, but it may have just as much, if not more, to do with the run ins Jones had with some obnoxious Cubs fans early in the 2006 season.
***The Cubs continue to be a suitor of Jason Schmidt’s. Jim Hendry indicated that even if the club signs Ted Lilly, that does not mean they will not continue their pursuit of Schmidt. However, the Dodgers have emerged as a prime suitor for Schmidt today. Schmidt has ties to Dodgers GM Ned Colletti and new Dodger trainer Stan Conte from their days with the Giants.
***Rumors are circulating that the Cubs and Phillies may be working a trade that would send former Southsider Aaron Rowand to the Cubs. There was no word on who the Cubs would send to Philadelphia to make this happen. From the Cubs perspective, they could use the scrappy center fielder, who hit .262 for the Phillies in 2006 with 12 HRs and 47 RBI.
***Other Activity: J.D. Drew signed with the Red Sox for 5 years/$70 Million…The Dodgers signed closer Takashi Saito for 1 year/$1 million plus $300,000 in incentives…Oakland and Texas continue to be the teams pursuing Mike Piazza…The Dodgers former closer, Eric Gagne, is drawing interest from the Red Sox, Reds, Braves, Indians, Giants, and Phillies…Andy Pettitte is still contemplating whether or not he will pitch in 2007. The New York Yankees made his decision a little easier today by offering him a 1 year/$15 million contract…The Mets still seem to be the front runner for Barry Zito’s services, but the Rangers are rumored to be dangling an offer of 6 years and between $94 million and $102 million…The Brewers are talking to both the Phillies and Orioles about a trade for OF Kevin Mench. The Phillies have talked about sending Jon Lieber or Aaron Rowand to the Brewers, but Milwaukee would have to sweeten the deal a bit. The Orioles have discussed sending pitcher Rodrigo Lopez to the Brewers…Greg Maddux is on the verge of signing a 1 year/$10 million deal with San Diego. The deal would also include a team option for a second year.

Winter Meetings: Day 1

2006-12-04T16:47:00.000-06:00

The first day of the Winter Meetings in Orlando was fairly anticlimactic. In the morning, ESPN’s Jayson Stark wrote that a rumor was spreading that the Cubs were about to sign Ted Lilly. The imminent signing proved to be false, but officials did confirm that Jim Hendry was scheduled to meet with Lilly’s agent, Larry O’Brien tonight.

It was also reported that Hendry spoke to Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd about a Jacques Jones for Jason Jennings swap. Several other teams were also interested in Jennings, including the Astros and Cardinals, but Hendry’s big pitch was that with both players having the same initials, the Rockies would not have to incur additional expenses buying a new set of monogrammed towels for Jones. There was no immediate word from O’Dowd on whether the Rockies were interested in the Cubs offer.

My hope for a quick trade for Dontrelle Willis did not happen, but the meetings are just beginning. Maybe it’s a deal Hendry and Beinfest can put together after a few cocktails tonight at the bar.

Former Cub Greg Maddux is rumored to be going to either San Diego or back to the Dodgers. Considering what the pitching market looks like, the Cubs would be well advised to giveMaddux a look. His price is high (rumored to be between $10.5 and $12.5 million per year), but unlike other high priced pitchers, Maddux is only looking for a two-year deal. Bringing Maddux back for a third stint with the Cubs may make more sense than signing one of the several second tier pitchers available for four years.

Cubs Could Fill Pitching Hole With Willis

2006-12-03T11:08:00.000-06:00

Here’s a crazy idea. The Cubs are looking for starting pitching and have even offered a rather generous contract to Ted Lilly, a second tier lefty who has trouble pitching past the sixth inning. Like many teams, the Cubs have an interest in Jason Schmidt, but as Seattle Mariners blog Lookout Landing points out, Schmidt is a guy whose name value exceeds his actual performance. So who should the Cubs go after? How about the Marlins’ Dontrelle Willis?

I know at first blush this may seem ridiculous, but let’s look a little closer. From the Cubs point of view, they’d love to add Willis to their rotation. That’s a no-brainer. But why would the Marlins entertain trading Willis?

First, the Marlins have a couple of needs that the Cubs could fill. The Fish need a center fielder and a closer. And like most teams, they could always use pitching prospects. As it turns out, the Cubs have players that could fill these holes.

For center field the Cubs could offer hot prospect Felix Pie. The feeling is that he needs another half season at AAA to be ready for the big leagues, but he has a tremendous amount of potential and the Marlins have proven they are not averse to playing AAA players on the big club.

If Pie does not intrigue the Fish, Jacque Jones might. Jones began his career in center field, has the speed to cover the position, and is an effective left handed bat with some pop. Most importantly for the Marlins, Jones is signed for the next two years at the reasonable price of $9 million total.

At closer, the Cubs could offer Ryan Dempster. Dempster had a down year in 2006, but that could be explained away as both over use and inconsistent use. In 2005, Dempster saved an impressive 33 out of 35 games and looked to become one of the top closers in the league.

Scott Eyre is another option at closer. He has been used primarily as a set up man with the Cubs, but he has closed for the Indians in the past and looks to have the make up to do it again. And again, Eyre's contract is reasonable, particularly in this FA market.

On the pitching prospect front, the Cubs are loaded. They could offer any prospect(s) from a list that includes Sean Marshall, Juan Mateo, Angel Guzman, Jae-Kuk Ryu, Will Ohman, Rocky Cherry, Carlos Marmol, Roberto Novoa, Clay Rapada, Ryan O’Malley, and even more.

So the Cubs have what the Marlins need. But why would the Marlins part with Willis instead of one of their other pitchers? The reason is because of money. Willis is going to be arbitration eligible after the 2007 season and is likely to earn a big pay day. The Marlins don’t like big pay days. Although the team is reportedly ready to increase their payroll from $15 million in 2006 to $25 million in 2007, they do not appear to be willing to expand it to the extent necessary to keep Willis after 2007. Why not deal him now and get the pieces needed for 2006? Brilliant!

Of course, the wild cards in all of this are the GMs. Jim Hendry and Larry Beinfest are buddies. They were together at Creighton University and Beinfest followed Hendry into the big leagues. Neither GM is going to just roll over for the other, but the fact that they can and have worked deals together before could be the grease needed to get this deal done.

With the Winter Meeting starting tomorrow, I would suggest that Hendry make Beinfest’s room his first stop when he gets to Orlando today. He might be able to fill his most pressing need before the meetings even begin.

Cubs Make Offer to Lilly

2006-12-02T13:24:00.000-06:00

The Cubs have reportedly made an offer to FA pitcher Ted Lilly. The offer is reportedly for 4 years and $40 million. Southpaw Lilly pitched for the Blue Jays last year and is still coveted by his former team. The Yankees and Giants are also interested in Lilly, although the Yankees interest may have cooled since they won the bid to negotiate with Japanese LHP Kei Igawa.

Lilly was 15-13 with a 4.31 ERA in 2006 with Toronto. Lilly is known as a fly ball pitcher who is not an innings eater. He routinely hits the 100 pitch mark in the sixth inning and his effectiveness goes downhill fast from there. The bull pen better be ready to pitch on days Lilly starts.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not completely opposed to signing Lilly. The Cubs need pitching and Lilly is one of the few FA pitchers worth pursuing. But Jim Hendry is in a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation. The Cubs need two starting pitchers and there are very few FA pitchers worth pursuing. The market is demanding big dollar contracts, but I think most teams are reluctant to give what the market demands.

This reluctance even applies to Jason Schmidt, largely regarded as the most highly sought after FA pitcher on the market. Schmidt will likely demand $15 million per year or more for three or four years, but even he comes with large question marks. Schmidt’s fast ball has dropped in velocity rather significantly and he has a history of injuries.

So I can understand Hendry’s interest in Lilly. He’s not as good as Schmidt, but he’s pretty good and he’ll cost about $5 million per year less. Even so, I’m not thrilled with Lilly, especially if he is slotted in as the #2 starter. But as I said, the Cubs have to add someone, so who would I prefer?

I honestly can’t make a really strong case to sign someone other than Lilly, but there are a couple of guys I prefer. First on that list is Jeff Suppan. In previous posts, I referred to Suppan as the poor man’s Barry Zito. Suppan has good stuff and he’s an innings eater. But although his price tag may not be as high as Zito’s, he’s anything but cheap. Expect Suppan to sign for $10-$12 million per year.

Vicente Padilla is another guy I like better than Lilly. He’ll cost about the same as Lilly, has better stuff, and is more durable, although injuries have been a problem in the past for Padilla as well.

By this time next week, I expect the Cubs to have their two new starting pitchers. I think they’ll sign one FA (probably Lilly) and they’ll trade for another pitcher (probably Indians RHP Jake Westbrook, although Rockies RHP Jason Jennings is still a possibility). But no matter who the Cubs add to their rotation, it likely won’t please all Cubs fans. Of course, that’s the nature of the game…and the nature of being a Cubs fan.

With or Without Steroids, McGwire Doesn't Make the Grade

2006-12-01T20:36:00.000-06:00

The Winter Meetings get started next Monday. I expect a lot of action and I expect the Cubs to be in the middle of much of it. Don’t be surprised if they sign a FA pitcher and make a trade for another one. It should be exciting.

In the meantime, let me jump into the discussion about the players that become eligible for the Hall of Fame this year. Like everyone else, I expect Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken, Jr. to be first ballot HOFers. They both deserve it and the baseball writers love them, so they should start getting their acceptance speeches ready.

On the other end of the spectrum are former players who will likely not get enough votes to remain on the ballot for a second year. These players include Dante Bichette, Scott Brosius, Ken Caminiti, Devon White, Bobby Witt, among others.

In the middle sits Mark McGwire. The former home run machine will be a tough call for baseball writers. Several, including Tim Kurkjian, are making the argument that McGwire should not be penalized for alleged steroid abuse that has never been proven. Other writers claim that they will never vote for McGwire due to his alleged steroid abuse. Yet others say that they feel McGwire deserves to be in the HOF, but they can not in good conscience vote him in on the first ballot. All of these arguments have their merits, but they all focus on the wrong thing. With or without steroids, Mark McGwire does not belong in the Hall of Fame.

For anyone who followed the homerun race in 1998 between McGwire and Sammy Sosa, you have to admit that it was a thrilling time. Every night we’d watch as Big Mac and Slammin’ Sammy made their bid to beat Roger Maris’ single season HR record and to out slug the other. It was an exciting time.

But what else did McGwire do during his career. Sure, he hit a lot of other homeruns. He ended his career with 583. But other than that, he didn’t do much. He was a one dimensional player who was very good at that one dimension, but didn’t bring much else to the game.

McGwire had a .263 lifetime batting average, meaning he wasn’t a particularly good hitter. He had a lot of power, but he otherwise didn’t hit very well. Thebiglead.com calls McGwire a “glorified Dave Kingman.” He also wasn’t a particularly good fielder. All he really did well was hit homeruns.

There's an adage when it comes to the HOF. If you hit 500 homeruns, you’re automatically in. Balderdash! There’s no longer anything magical about 500 homeruns. McGwire, Sosa (588), and Rafael Palmiero (569) all have more than 500 career homeruns and none of them belong in the Hall. The HOF should be for players who did more than just hit homeruns.

With McGwire’s name on the ballot for the first time this year, all of the talk has centered around whether he did or didn’t use performance enhancing drugs, and if he did, does he deserve to get into the Hall. In my mind, it simply doesn’t matter. If you judge his performance on the field and completely ignore the PEDs question, Mark McGwire simply doesn’t make the grade.

But you know who does make the grade? Andre Dawson. I’m not just saying this because I have an autographed “Hawk” jersey hanging in my house. I’m saying it because he was perhaps the most complete player of his era. Dawson’s started his career as ROY in 1977. He went on to compile an impressive array of stats including a career .279 batting average over 21 seasons and 438 homeruns. Don’t get these stats confused with McGwire’s. The two HOF nominees played during very different times.

Dawson won the NL MVP with the Cubs in 1987 and finished in the top 10 in MVP voting four times. He played on eight all-star teams, won eight gold gloves, and was twice named the Sporting News NL Player of the Year. He did all of this while hobbling around on two of the most chronically painful knees the game has ever seen. He was feared by opposing teams and revered by his teammates. Andre Dawson was the type of player and had the type of career that was made for the HOF. Now it's up to the baseball writers to do the right thing and put "The Hawk" up on stage in Cooperstown with Gwynn and Ripkin.

Soriano Contract With Cubs Almost Reasonable

2006-11-30T20:37:00.000-06:00

It was a slow day on the baseball front. But that didn’t stop several posters in blogdom from continuing to complain about Alfonso Soriano’s contract. These complaints center around 1) Soriano being paid too much, and 2) the contract being too long.

There’s no disputing that Soriano is being paid a lot of money. It’s also self-evident that in the baseball world, an eight year contract is a long contract. Even so, I absolutely do not agree with those complaining about Soriano’s contract. Here’s why:

If the Cubs wanted to be a legitimate, competitive team in 2007, they had to make some major changes. Tweaking the 2006 version of the team wasn’t going to cut the mustard. So they went out and signed the two top FA position players (ARam & Soriano) available. Even before they did that, they hired Lou Piniella to lead the team. The hiring of Piniella and signing of ARam and Soriano signaled two things. First, the Cubs want to win and they want to win now. Second, the culture at Wrigley Field is changing.

If it had been possible, I would have liked to see the Cubs sign Soriano for five years and closer to $70 million. But that’s not what the going rate was. If the Cubs top offer had been 5/$70 million, some other team would have snatched up Soriano for more money and/or years. And that’s the bottom line point I’m trying to make. The market determines a player’s value, not the team that signs him.

I can assure you that Jim Hendry would have preferred to sign Soriano for fewer years and less money. But that just wasn’t in the cards. And if you look at the contracts of Juan Pierre with the Dodgers, Gary Matthews, Jr. with the Angels, Carlos Lee with the Astros and the contract J.D. Drew will be signing shortly with the Red Sox, Alfonso Soriano’s contract doesn’t look so bad. In fact, if it is possible, it almost looks reasonable.

The Cubs could have sat on the sidelines and allowed other teams to sign all of the free agents. Naturally, there would have been a lot of complaining by Cubs fans, but the Cubs would have avoided these big contracts. They also would have been relegated to the ranks of the Royals, Pirates and Drays. And 2006 was enough of a taste of that comparison for me.

Those are the alternatives. Either compete for the free agents even though the contracts are big, or throw in the towel in the off-season and join the ranks of the back markers. I’m glad the Cubs chose the former.

Everybody Loves Jason (Schmidt)

2006-11-29T18:37:00.000-06:00

Reports out today indicate that just about every team in MLB and a few Mexican League teams are interested in Jason Schmidt. From my reading, the following teams (in no particular order) seem to have an interest:

Chicago Cubs
Seattle Mariners
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Houston Astros
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
New York Mets
New York Yankees
Los Angeles Angels

According to published reports, Schmidt’s agent has told the two New York teams that Schmidt does not want to play on the East Coast. Yesterday, I indicated that the Mariners might not have the money to compete with the Cubs offer of 3 years/$45 million and that the Dodgers might not be interested after signing Randy Wolf and pursuing Greg Maddux. However, today’s Chicago Tribune lists the Dodgers and Mariners as the front runners in the Schmidt derby.

By the way, the Cubs denied reports that they offered a 3 year/$45 million contract to Schmidt. Actually, they denied offering Schmidt a 3 year/$44 million contract, but confirmed that they are interested in the right handed pitcher.

I don’t know if they are saying that they didn’t make an offer to Schmidt or if they are saying that they did make an offer but the numbers are wrong. In either case, I don’t believe Schmidt is worth more than $15 million per year nor do I think it makes sense to offer him more than 3 years. Even so, some team will probably cave in to the pressure and offer Schmidt more than he is worth. That’s how the free agent market works.

Cubs Make Offer to Schmidt

2006-11-28T22:04:00.000-06:00

Sports Illustrated is reporting that the Chicago Cubs have made an offer to FA pitcher Jason Schmidt. According to the article, the offer is for 3 years/$45 million.

Schmidt is the top FA pitcher available this off season and will likely garner offers from several teams. However, if the Cubs did make this offer, it is pretty generous. It would be difficult (although not impossible) for any team to justify offering more money. And with Schmidt’s injury history and age (he’s 38), it would be difficult justifying more years. That doesn’t mean that Schmidt won’t receive a higher offer or an offer involving more years. It just means that in my opinion, the Cubs offer is probably as high as they should go.

One thing working in the Cubs favor is that the Seattle Mariners, who it was believed had the inside track on Schmidt, probably don’t have the money to match the Cubs offer. It has been speculated that Schmidt, a native of the Seattle area, would like to stay on the West Coast. If true, that could mean that the Mets and Yankees, two likely suitors, could be out of the running. Having said that, Chicago isn’t exactly on the West Coast either.

The Dodgers are also probably not in the running for Schmidt. Earlier this week they signed former Phillies starter Randy Wolf and they are negotiating to re-sign Greg Maddux. Schmidt is too expensive for Oakland’s taste. That leaves San Francisco and San Diego (and maybe the Angels) as the only West Coast teams with the money and interest in Schmidt.

I have mixed emotions about the Cubs signing Schmidt. Being the most sought after FA pitcher, he’s going to cost a lot of money. I think I would prefer signing a second tier starter (e.g., Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Vicente Padilla, etc.) and trade for another starter (e.g., Jason Jennings or Jake Westbrook). With the money the club saves, they can find a good bench bat and have some left over to extend Zambrano’s contract. Of course, if money is no object, sign Schmidt, Padilla, and make the trade.

I’ve expounded on some of the players I would like to see patrolling CF next year for the Cubs. Tops on the list were Vernon Wells with Andruw Jones a close second. I don’t think the Cubs are going to make a move for a center fielder. Instead, I expect Alfonso Soriano to be in RF and Jacque Jones to move over to CF. This solution makes a lot of sense.

First, Jones arm is better suited for CF than RF. Soriano has a cannon, so is a good fit for right. Second, Jones is relatively inexpensive. At $5.5 million per year, that almost qualifies as a bargain in this market. Third, if Felix Pie is ready to take over CF duties in the middle of next year, Jones would be a good trading chip the Cubs can use at the trade deadline to get more pitching. If Pie isn’t ready, Jones can finish out the year in center.

Bringing in a new, possibly more expensive player for CF could tie the Cubs hands once Felix Pie is ready for primetime. Vernon Wells or Andruw Jones could both turn in to high priced rentals, and someone like Kenny Lofton could cause tension in the clubhouse if he doesn’t see as much playing time as he thinks he deserves. I think the better move at this point is to move J. Jones over to CF and see how things work out.

The Cubs were in on the bidding for Japanese pitcher Kei Igawa, but they were beat out by the Yankees. It was announced today that the Yankees bid of $25 million just for the right to negotiate a contract with Igawa had been accepted by the Hanshin Tigers. The Yanks now have 30 days to negotiate a contract with Igawa.

Personally, I think the Yankees were nuts to bid $25 million. Igawa is projected to be a #4 or #5 starter. It seems to me the $25 million would have been better used to sign Barry Zito, Andy Pettitte or Ted Lilly. Left handed pitchers are always in demand, but I still think it was far too much to pay for a pitcher with Igawa’s credentials. I’m glad the Cubs didn’t win the “privilege” to negotiate with Kei.

There’s one other rumor out there that I hesitate to comment on only because it seems so unlikely. A popular blog is reporting that the Cubs are considering trading Matt Murton, Bob Howry, Sean Gallagher and Donald Veal to the Red Sox for left fielder and perennial headache, Manny Ramirez. One thing that seems certain is that the Red Sox are borderline desperate to get rid of ManRam and that they have to know that they are not going to get equal value if they trade him. Even so, I just don’t see the Cubs making this move, although I have to say that ManRam’s contract looks a little more friendly now considering what Soriano, CLee, Matthews, Jr., Pierre, etc. have signed for. Who knows? Stranger things have happened.

Soriano Better Than Lee

2006-11-26T22:05:00.000-06:00

The Astros landed their big bopper this week when they signed Carlos Lee to a 6 year, $100 million contract. In my mind, Lee’s contract makes Soriano’s contract look much more reasonable.

Although Soriano and Lee are the same age, you can already see that Soriano is aging much better than Lee. Lee has lost a step and his body has become much thinker than it was just a few years ago. Soriano, on the other hand, has remained very quick and athletic. I can’t promise that Soriano will still be at the top of his game in 6-8 years, but I much prefer Soriano over Lee for the next few years.

The Astros also signed Woody Williams to join their pitching staff. Williams pitched for the Padres last year and is 40 years old. Although Williams is not a bad pitcher, he tends to give up a lot of fly balls which could be very dangerous in Minute Maid Park. What the Crawford Boxes in left field will give to Carlos Lee, they will take away from Woody Williams.

Getting back to Soriano, he has requested that the Cubs allow him to play winter ball in the Dominican Republic. The Cubs haven’t responded, but Soriano’s desire to get into shape and improve his game is refreshing. It would have been easy for Soriano to sit at home and lay on the couch. I don’t know if the Cubs will let him play, but I like his enthusiasm.

The GM Winter Meetings are just a week away. If a deal is going to get done for someone like Jake Westbrook or Jason Jennings, I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens at the Winter Meetings.

Soriano is a Cub! What's Next?

2006-11-22T20:48:00.000-06:00

The Hot Stove is really heating up. The Dodgers signed Juan Pierre and Nomar, the Angels signed Gary Matthews, Jr., The Yankees re-signed Mussina, and Boston is negotiating to sign Daisuke Matsuzaka after posting a whopping $51 million bid just to talk to him. The only thing that would make this time of year better is if they were actually playing baseball.

What do the weeks ahead hold for the Cubs? Rumors are that Julio Lugo and Cliff Floyd are on the Cubs radar. Lugo has apparently indicated that he would be willing to play CF for the Cubs, which gives the team a lot of options. Lugo is a SS by trade, but could be counted on to do an adequate (or better) job in CF. He would also make an excellent #2 hitter behind Soriano. Once Felix Pie is ready to come up to the big club, Lugo could become trade bait or could become the everyday SS with Izturis either becoming a bench player or trade bait. Lugo provides a lot of flexibility. Plus, Piniella already knows and likes him.

The Cliff Floyd rumors have me a bit puzzled. Floyd would be an excellent left handed bat off the bench, but I doubt that he would agree to such a role. Floyd’s injury history makes him questionable as a starter, but some team will probably risk signing him to be their starting LF. Some have suggested that Floyd could platoon with Murton. That’s not a good idea. Murton is coming into his own and has earned an everyday job. True, Murton and Floyd could make a good righty/lefty platoon (especially considering that the Cubs could use another lefty bat in the lineup), but Murton has shown that he can hit well against both left-handed and right-handed pitching.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs didn’t add any more position players. Jacque Jones is fully capable of playing CF (assuming Soriano is in RF) and his arm is much better suited to CF. Putting Jones in CF would keep a reasonably priced hitter in the line up and will provide the only lefty bat the Cubs have at the moment. Of course, Jones may also be one of the most valuable trading chips the Cubs have and they may need to trade him to get a starting pitcher. Colorado in particular is looking for a CF and may be willing to part with Jason Jennings if the Cubs throw in a sweetener.

There’s also a rumor floating around that the Cubs have offered Jason Schmidt a 3/$45 million deal. Schmidt is likely looking for four years, but his age and injury history make that a bit risky. Schmidt is the most sought after FA pitcher on the market, but I just have a feeling that the Cubs would be better off signing two second tier pitchers (or sign one, trade for one) rather than commit a bunch of money to Schmidt. I think I’m probably in the minority on that, but I’m not as high on Schmidt as some others are.

I’d like to see the Cubs sign one of Jeff Suppan/Gil Meche/Ted Lilly/Randy Wolf and then trade for either Jake Westbrook or Jason Jennings. The Cubs have also taken a look at Jason Marquis and rumors have it that Larry Rothschild has given Marquis his stamp of approval. Marquis apparently had a mechanical flaw in his delivery in 2006 that significantly hampered his effectiveness. Supposedly, the flaw has been corrected. However, if Dave Duncan couldn’t fix the flaw in St. Louis, I don’t trust Rothschild to be able to correct/maintain Marquis’ delivery with the Cubs.

Also, keep in mind that the Cubs have Mark Prior, Wade Miller and Neal Cotts as all potential starters in 2007. Personally, I’d like to see Cotts stay in the bullpen, but a healthy and effective Prior and/or Miller would be a Godsend to the Cubs. The club could end up with 7 potential starting pitchers. That would be interesting.

How would you like this starting rotation:

Zambrano
Westbrook/Jennings
Suppan/Meche/Lilly/Wolf
Hill
Prior

I know I’m treading on thin ice expecting Prior to be ready and able to pitch, but I figure it’s better to have false hope rather than no hope at all.

Soriano to Become a Cub

2006-11-19T20:37:00.000-06:00

Surprise, surprise, surprise…

The greatest GM in the history of baseball, Sir Jim Hendry, has reportedly signed Alfonso Soriano. The contract is rumored to be for 8 years and $136 million, although some sources claim it is a six year deal with years seven and eight as option years.

Okay, I’m being a bit hypocritical kissing up to Hendry, but let’s give credit where credit is due. Hendry ponied up the years/money he needed to bring Soriano to the Cubs and to keep him away from the Angels and Phillies who were both in hot pursuit of him. I know that some people will criticize Big Jim, but the guy did what he had to do.

In previous posts, I have stated that for the Cubs to ever turn into the perennial front runner that we want them to be, they are going to have to change their attitude and approach. When John McDonough became team president, he signaled a change in the organization’s attitude when he said that he was hired to build a winning ball club. Now Hendry is showing that the team’s approach is also changing. Rather than avoiding top free agents, Hendry has managed to sign the top two available free agent position players this off-season (ARam and Soriano). These changes bode well for the Cubs in the future.

Hendry’s work this off-season is not over yet, but he has started the winter in spectacular fashion. In a radio interview, Lou Piniella indicated that Soriano would likely lead-off and play one of the corner outfield positions. With CF being a gapping hole, Piniella’s comments would seem to indicate that more moves are planned. Could Andruw Jones or Vernon Wells be heading to the north side? Sweet Lou's comments also indicated that either Murton or Jones may have just become trade bait.

Of course, starting pitching is an area that needs significant attention. I’ve been reading that Jake Westbrook and/or Jason Jennings could be obtained via trades. Both would do well in Wrigley Field, but I think the point is that the Cubs will probably not be improving their starting rotation via free agency. Maybe one trade and one signing? Who knows for sure? Before I start worry about that tomorrow, I’m going to enjoy the Soriano signing right now.

This Week in Cubs Nation

2006-11-19T11:53:00.000-06:00

This week the Cubs signed FA 2nd baseman Mark DeRosa to a three year contract and the criticism began immediately. DeRosa has been a “super sub” for the Rangers and he was reportedly signed by Jim Hendry to be the Cubs everyday 2nd baseman. Critics accused Hendry of again overpaying for a second tier FA and they reasoned that he should concentrate his efforts (and dollars) on filling the gapping holes on the roster rather than on overpaying role players who would likely be available late in the off-season after the top tier FAs are signed.

The critics have a point, but I’m going to withhold judgment. As readers of this blog will attest, I’m not a big Jim Hendry fan. But I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt this early in the off-season. I’m willing to accept, largely on blind faith, that Hendry has a plan and he is working that plan. I’m willing to accept that DeRosa is just one small piece of the larger puzzle that will become the 2007 Cubs. I’m mostly willing to accept all of this because the alternative is to pull out my hair and have a stroke.

As Cubs fans, we all want to know what the organization plans to do to build a winner next year. But obviously, the team can’t let everyone in on their plans. In the weeks ahead, the plan will be revealed. Hopefully it is a plan that we will all be happy with (although that’s doubtful). But my fear, along with a lot of other people’s, is that the Cubs don’t have a very well defined plan or that they aren’t committed to carry out their plan. But for now, I’m willing to accept that they have a plan and are committed to making it work. History isn’t on my side, but I’m a Cubs fan. And every off-season is the time to once again start believing that next year is the year.

Hendry Gets the Job Done

2006-11-12T17:02:00.000-06:00

Just before midnight last night, Jim Hendry signed Aramis Ramirez to a five year contract worth in excess of $70 million. There is also a mutual option for 2012. The signing came just before ARam could have started negotiating with other teams.

A lot of Cubs fans through Cubs blogdom were convinced that not signing ARam would have meant the Cubs would have had no chance of competing in 2007. I didn't agree with that sentiment, but I did feel the Cubs would be a better team with ARam than without him, no matter who they would have replaced him with.

So congratulations, Jim. You got the job done (even though you did wait until the very last minute to get it done). Now it's time to start attracting some other free agents and start working on some trades. Signing ARam was the easy part. Now your job really gets interesting.

BTW, Big Jim also signed Kerry Wood to a one year, $1.75 million contract that includes lots of incentives. Wood will likely be part of the bullpen since his elbow problems don't allow him to throw enough pitches to be a starter. I'm okay with Wood returning to the Cubs. The poor guy has been an injury fest over the past few years, but I've never gotten the idea that he was just being lazy. He's a competitor and if he can stay healthy, his addition should improve the bullpen.

Finally, I wish someone could explain to me the posting process for Matsuzaka. Actually, I understand the process. What I don't understand is why a team would hesitate to bid on him. From all accounts, Matsuzaka is a top of the rotation pitcher that will improve any team he joins. Whoever wins the right to sign him will also be immediately increasing their presence in Japan, a country that loves American baseball and spends lots of money on merchandise.

The posting fee (no matter how large) is not a huge risk because the team that wins the bid gets their money back if they are unable to sign Matsuzaka to a contract. And since Matsuzaka is not interested in returning to Japan next year (as reports have indicated), he would likely accept a reasonable offer.

Signing Matsuzaka would also immediately give the team that signs him a huge trading chip if they decide they are interested in other players. For instance, if the Cubs win the bidding, sign Matsuzaka, and then decide it is in their best interest to trade him, The Yankees would probably be willing to give up a ton, including ARod and perhaps Robinson Cano.

Different reports have indicated that the Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees were the top bidders. Obviously, not all of these reports can be correct. The winning bidder will be announced by Tuesday, November 14, assuming the Seibu Lions accept the bid. The winning team will have 30 days to negotiate a contract. If a contract can not be agreed upon, the team will get back their entire bid and Matsuzaka will return to play in Japan in 2007.

Experts Look Foolish As World Series Ends

2006-10-28T20:44:00.001-05:00

The Cardinals beat the Tigers last night 4-2 to win the World Series four games to one. It may seem odd for a Cubs fan to say this, but I’m happy the Cardinals won.

First, I’ve never had the hatred for the Cardinals that a lot of Cubs fans have. Growing up, the Mets were always the arch enemy, not the Cards. Second, my main reason for being happy is that the Cardinals WS victory flies right in the face of all of the supposed experts who said not only that the Cardinals couldn’t beat the Tigers, but that no team coming out of the NL could beat the Tigers.

If there’s one thing I hate, it’s people who believe their opinions are infallible. In fact, they don’t consider their opinions to be opinions. They consider their opinions to be fact. These “experts” said that the Tigers would win the WS and that they would do it in four or five games (depending on who made the prognostication). They were wrong about the WS and they were wrong in a big way.

Don’t misunderstand, I’m not talking about everyone who had an opinion on the WS. Heck, I predicted that the Cardinals would lose the NLDS to the Padres, then I picked the Mets in the NLCS. Being wrong isn’t a crime. But these experts I’m talking about acted as if the game on the field didn’t matter. They pointed to stats as “proof” that the Tigers would win the WS. By doing this, at least in my mind, they were being disrespectful to the game. They didn’t recognize that baseball is one of the hardest games to predict and that things like heart and determination and grit and attitude mean more than statistics, especially when it comes to the post-season.

Now the spotlight turns to the off-season. Jim Hendry has his work cut out for him, but I’m hopeful that he will have the best off-season of his career. There’s a lot of work to be done, but as the WS proved, you never can tell what will happen.

Cubs Add Three Coaches

2006-10-27T22:31:00.000-05:00

I'm out-of-town, but still trying to keep up with the blog. The Cubs announced three new coaches today

As previously reported, Mike Quade was formally announced as the Cubs new 3rd base coach. Quade will also be the team's outfield instructor.

Matt Sinatro will be Lou Piniella's 1st base coach coach. Sinatro worked with Piniella previously in Seattle as the bullpen coach.

Lester Strode will be the Cubs bullpen coach. For the past eleven years, Strode has been the Cubs minor league pitching coordinator.

Still to be announced is who will be the Cubs hitting instructor. The two leading candidates are Chris Chambliss, who was Piniella's hitting coach in Cincinnati, and former Red Sox coach Ron Jackson.

I'll keep up as best I can for the next week.

BTW, the Cards just won the World Series...

Quade In, Spier Gone

2006-10-25T18:56:00.000-05:00

What could be more exciting than more news about the Cubs coaching staff? How about the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA)? Hey, let’s talk about both.

Today, the Cubs announced that Mike Quade will be joining Lou Piniella’s staff. Quade, who previously managed the Cubs AAA team in Iowa, will take over the 3rd base coaching duties. Quade is a Chicago-area native, having graduated from Prospect Heights High School in 1975.

Chris Spier, who replaced Wavin’ Wendell Kim as the Cubs 3rd base coach under Dusty Baker, will not be returning to the team. There was speculation that he would be returning despite receiving an embarrassing DUI during the 2006 season, but those rumors were put to rest on Tuesday.

I’m not going to say much about the CBA other than to say that it is far too boring to be read in its entirety. One thing I can tell you is that under the new CBA, no teams will be contracted. The Winner of the All-Star game will still get home field advantage in the World Series (It’s still a bad idea!).

Also, in the past, teams received draft pick compensation when they lost a free agent. That is being eliminated. However, the new rule is being phased in over time depending on the type of free agent involved. Trust me, you don’t want to know any more than that.

At the moment, the Cards have a 2-1 lead in the World Series. Personally, I have gotten sick of hearing all of the experts expound on how the AL is vastly superior to the NL and how no matter which team came out of the NL, they were likely going to be four or five game victims to the Tigers. I’m not saying the Cards are going to win the World Series. The Tigers are still a very good team. All I’m saying is that it’s good to see these so-called experts have to eat their words.

Is The Tribune Company Really Going to Sell The Cubs?

2006-10-24T07:43:00.000-05:00

There was a small, rather inconspicuous article in Crain’s Chicago Business yesterday indicating that The Tribune Company has asked potential bidders interested in purchasing all or part of the company to submit “nonbinding indications of interest.” The Tribune Company owns the Cubs as well as The Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, and 25 TV stations.

According to the article, The Tribune Company would like to complete a deal by the end of the year. Considering the late date already, this is highly unlikely. But it does show that the Trib Co. is apparently very serious about selling their assets.

When the Trib Co was adamant that they had no intention of selling the Cubs, I thought they should sell. I had convinced myself (without really giving it much thought) that anyone would be a better owner than The Trib Co. After all, The Trib Co has a 25 year track record of failing miserably when it comes to wins and losses. Of course, they have made money with the Cubs. I suppose that is important too.

Recently, when it started to look like the Cubs might actually be sold, I started to think about the possibility of someone worse than The Trib Co coming in to take over the team. I mean, what if someone like Jeffrey Loria, owner of the Marlins, was to buy the team. The payroll would be drastically cut and the new owner would just milk the franchise for all it was worth. One thing you can say about the Trib Co is that they were willing to spend some decent coin on payroll. I’ve argued in previous posts that I thought they should spend even more, but a payroll of $100 million is nothing to sneeze at.

If I could be guaranteed that someone like Mark Cuban (other than Mark Cuban, is there anyone like Mark Cuban?) would ride in on his white horse and commit all of his considerable resources to building a World Series Champion on the north side, I’d be all for The Trib Co selling the team. But owners like Mark Cuban are few and far between. Most owners are either corporations (like The Trib Co) that have shareholders to answer to or they are conservative business people who don’t share the same love for the team that the fans do.

Mark Cuban is unique among professional sports team owners. When I say I want the Trib Co to sell, I do so with the stipulation that a well healed fan of the team with a commitment to winning buys it. Otherwise, I’m not all that crazy about the Trib Co selling.

* * * * *

As Bill Madden at the New York Daily News predicted on Sunday, Alan Trammell has signed on as Lou Piniella’s bench coach. Trammell will also be the club’s infield instructor. The only other coach confirmed for next year is pitching coach Larry Rothschild. Mike Quade, manager of the AAA Iowa Cubs, has been rumored to be joining Piniella’s staff as a 1st or 3rd base coach. Previously, it was rumored that 3rd base coach Chris Spier would be back, but since Trammell is taking on the duties of infield instructor, it makes it less likely that Spier will be part of Lou’s coaching staff.

Piniella Adding to His Coaching Staff

2006-10-23T09:01:00.000-05:00

Bill Madden from the New York Daily News is reporting that Lou Piniella has pegged former Detroit Tigers manager Alan Trammell to be his bench coach with the Cubs. Trammell was last seen managing the Tigers to an AL record 119 loss season in 2003. After the 2005 season, Trammell was replaced by Jim Leyland and the rest is history.

It had been believed that Piniella would opt for his former bench coach, John McLaren , to be his bench coach in Chicago, but last week, McLaren signed on as the bench coach and heir-apparent to manager Mike Hargrove in Seattle. Rumors out of Seattle are that McLaren was made an offer he couldn’t refuse.

As a player, Trammell was hard-nosed and got the most out of his natural ability. As a manager, Trammell was hard-nosed, but couldn’t get his team of misfits to perform. Some have claimed that the players just weren’t talented enough to win. Others have claimed that Trammell wasn’t a good enough leader to get his players to play together as a team. In the end, it may have been both.

Trammell may actually be a good choice to be bench coach. He’s a baseball man through and through, and he’s a guy that players respect. He also is a guy that can be quietly effective without drawing attention to himself, a quality necessary in a successful bench coach.

Piniella’s pitching coach next year will be none other than Larry Rothschild. Rothschild has weathered the storms of three different Cubs managers. Piniella will be his fourth (Baylor, Kim and Baker were the others).

Rothschild is highly regarded in baseball circles, but I fail to see exactly what he is bringing to the team. His main strength is that he is supposed to be a master of pitching mechanics. Yet, the Cubs problems, at least in the last few years, seem to center around pitchers with bad mechanics. It’s good if Rothschild can recognize problems with pitching mechanics, but he’s not very useful if he can’t fix them.

Many believe that Rothschild is Hendry’s hand-picked pitching coach and that Piniella had to agree to taking Rothschild before Hendry would agree to a contract with Piniella. Although there may be some truth to this, it is also true that Rothschild is very familiar to Piniella. Rothschild was Pinella’s bullpen coach in Cincinnati in 1990, the year the Reds won the World Series. Rothschild also won a World Series ring as the pitching coach of the 1997 Florida Marlins.

In all fairness, under Rothschild’s tutelage, Cubs pitchers have lead the majors in strikeouts every year he has coached in Chicago. Although this fact hasn’t translated into wins as often as I would like, it is an impressive stat nonetheless.

The Cubs success or failure in 2007 will not be decided by Rothschild, Trammell of even Piniella. That determination will be made largely this off-season by the moves (or lack of moves) made by Jim Hendry. The next few weeks and months will tell that tale.

No Shortage of Rumors Concerning the Cubs

2006-10-22T09:22:00.000-05:00

The hot stove is heating up early this year and rumors are flying left and right. Here is a sample of some of the things being said on sports-talk radio, on the sports pages, in blogs, and at the corner tavern:

* Aramis Ramirez will have a lot of suitors if Jim Hendry cheaps out on signing the third baseman. Tops on that list will be the Angels, but never fear. Big Jim will work things out. It will be a last minute deal, but Ramirez will be playing third for the Cubs into the foreseeable future.

*Alfonso Soriano will be the Cubs #1 free agent position player target this off season. There have also been rumors that the Cubs have designs on Carlos Lee, but Houston Chronicle columnist Richard Justice (who is very good, by the way) says that Lee will be signing with Houston.

* It seems that everyone is talking about why ARod should waive his no-trade clause and agree to a trade with the Cubs. Nancy Armour does a nice job of laying out the argument for ARod coming to Chicago.

* ARod is not the only high profile SS the Cubs may be looking at this off-season. Paul Sullivan at The Chicago Tribune reports that the Cubs may be setting their sights on Miguel Tejada. Of course, this was the hot rumor last off-season, but the Orioles may actually be willing to move Tejada this year.

* Sullivan also says that Pinella may be pushing to bring in one of his “athletic” former outfielders to be a lead-off hitter. Players in the mix are Mike Cameron, Carl Crawford and Ichiro Suzuki. Ichiro in particular interests me. I can’t imagine why Seattle would trade the all-star right fielder, but Sullivan says that Ichiro, who has one year left on his contract may be getting tired of not getting enough attention playing for the Mariners, a team that seldom gets any national press.

* Many Cubs fans want to dump Mark Prior, but the guy still has a tremendous amount of potential. For now, Prior is still relatively inexpensive and if he is healthy (a big if), he’ll be in the starting rotation in 2007.

* Could Eric Gagne be in the Cubs plans for 2007? The Dodger closer missed the 2006 season with injuries, but should be back in 2007. The problem is, in Gagne’s absence in LA, Takashi Saito has emerged as the Dodger’s closer and LA, who holds a $12 million option for 2007 on Gagne, will likely be interested in moving the closer. It’s no secret that the Cubs closer position will be up for grabs in 2007. Ryan Dempster had a horrible year as the closer and it’s likely that Piniella will want someone different in that role next year. Up until now, speculation has been that someone already with the organization would fill the closer slot. But with the Cubs new “win right now” attitude and increased payroll, the Cubs may have to consider bringing in someone proven and dependable to close out their games.

The Poor Man's Barry Zito

2006-10-21T11:20:00.000-05:00

Call me a bandwagon jumper, but I’m starting to like this Jeff Suppan fellow more and more. He’s making a name for himself in the post season for the Cardinals, but he’s actually had a fairly impressive career up until now.

Over the past three years, Suppan has made at least 31 starts and has a 44-26 record over than span. In a way, he’s the poor man’s Barry Zito. He’s durable, has great stuff, but comes with a much lower price tag than Zito. While he is most likely due a raise, Suppan made (just) $4 million this past year with St. Louis.

2007 will be Suppan’s age 32 season and he seems to be getting better with age. While other teams are focusing on the big three (Schmidt, Zito and Matsuzaka), Jim Hendry would be well advised to focus his efforts on Suppan. He would be a credible #2 behind Carlos Zambrano and would come inexpensively enough to allow Hendry to sign another starting pitcher or perhaps spend more on an all-star caliber position player. Plus, Zambrano and Suppan may be the best hitting #1 - #2 pitching combo in all of baseball.

By the way, I haven’t given up on my idea to sign either Greg Maddux or Jamie Moyer to come in and be a # 5 starter. They’re old (by baseball standards), but they still are getting the job done. And I think Moyer in particular will come with a reasonable price tag.

Although I’m looking forward to the World Series, I’m also looking forward to it being over so the Cubs can get busy building their 2007 ball club.

Patience Needed in ARam Negotiations

2006-10-20T08:08:00.000-05:00

I don’t mean to be impatient, but what on earth is going on with ARam’s contract? Jim Hendry has had at least since the all-star break to negotiate a new contract with ARam. The fact that Big Jim didn’t entertain trade offers for ARam prior to the trade deadline led me (and a lot of other people) to believe that a new contract was in the works. But recently, Paul Kinzer, ARam’s agent, indicated that he and Hendry had just exchanged offers. In other words, the negotiations were just beginning.

The good news is that ARam has stated that he would like to stay with the Cubs and Hendry has indicated that he would like to keep ARam in a Cubs uniform. The bad news is that a deal isn’t done and the deadline for declaring for free agency is just around the corner. It’s getting down to crunch time, so something needs to happen soon.

Whatever happens with ARam will be the first domino to fall this off-season. Once ARam is in place or he walks, then other moves can be made. But Hendry needs to know what is going in with ARam before he can make any other moves.

I’ll try to be patient, but the suspense is killing me.

It's Official: I Don't Like Jay Mariotti

2006-10-19T18:06:00.000-05:00

I’ve decided that I don’t like Jay Mariotti. It wasn’t as hard of a decision as you might imagine.

Jay is what was referred to in days gone by as a nattering nabob of negatism. He is negative about everything he writes about. In yesterday’s Sun-Times, Mariotti as much as declared the Cubs 2007 season a failure. Mind you, it hasn’t been played yet. In fact, the 2006 off-season hasn’t even officially begun. Free agents have yet to declare and we are still nearly two months away from the Winter Meetings. Even so, Mariotti, in his infinite wisdom, has announced that as usual, he knows more than us mere mortals, and the Cubs are not going to the playoffs in 2007.

I’ve followed the Cubs now for more than 35 years. I’ve been disappointed time and time again. It’s not easy being a fan on the Cubs. Even so, there’s no reason to give up on next season when this season isn’t even officially over.

Of course, if Mariotti had taken that tact, he wouldn’t feed his rep of being the most negative writer in sports. Nothing is good enough for him, nobody is as smart as him, and no one is as capable. In the odd, negative world where Mariotti lives, he is definitely king.

I don’t get as worked up as some others about what sports writers have to say, but Mariotti is so far beyond the pale that I felt I had to take a stand. I just don’t like him.

In an interview a few weeks ago, Mariotti mentioned that he didn’t care what others had to say about him because every time someone wrote something about him, it just made him that much more famous. I wonder if that works when you write something on a blog that no one reads. Ha, I guess I showed you, Jay. Wait, that’s not good…

ARod Would be Nice, But Not Likely

2006-10-18T19:06:00.000-05:00

I realized today that I’ve spent too much time and emotion on the issue of the Cubs acquiring ARod. In my mind, it has been the centerpiece of the Cubs off-season moves. In reality, it’s a possibility, but it by no means likely.

The focus of the Cubs off-season moves has to center on pitching. The Cubs need a top-of-the-rotation pitcher (Schmidt, Zito, Matusaka) and an innings eater for the #3-4 slot. If they can’t get one of the big three free agents, they need to turn their attention to the next tier of pitchers or look at making a trade.

In addition, the Cubs need to sign at least one FA bat. I’ve written previously about Alfonso Soriano. If Soriano is not a Cub next year it should not be because Jim Hendry didn’t put in the effort or because the Cubs got outbid. Many have opined that Carlos Lee should be the target instead of Soriano. If you look strictly at their stats, CLee may have a very slight edge over Soriano. But to me, Soriano is the more versatile ball player and he seems like the kind of player that still has untapped potential. CLee, at least to me, seems like the kind of player whose skills are going to start to deteriorate. BTW, I have absolutely nothing to base that on.

Finally, the Cubs need to try to acquire another bat via a trade. ARod would be my #1 candidate, but I’d also welcome Vernon Wells, Miguel Cabrera, or Miguel Tejada. Adding one of these guys (or another big bat) via trade would help to vastly improve the Cubs, but it is less important that the first three moves. The first three moves are necessary while adding a bat through a trade is optional.

Maybe, Just Maybe, This Will Work

2006-10-17T08:22:00.000-05:00

When he was named President of the Cubs, John McDonough said that he had been hired to build a winning team. He said that Cubs fans deserved a winner after all of the years of frustration they have lived through.

Many people dismissed McDonough’s comments as just hype. After all they said, McDonough was head of marketing before getting the job of president and he is skilled at telling people what they want to hear. The Cubs have a 100 year history of ineptitude, they reasoned, how was a marketing guy going to turn things around?

I have another take on all of this. Maybe the hiring of Lou Piniella is the first move designed to turn the Cubs into winners. Perhaps the increase in the payroll for 2007 is another move to help the Cubs secure the players they’ll need to win. As we move forward, maybe Jim Hendry will sign the free agents the team needs. Maybe he’ll make trades that will turn things around. Maybe these players will buy into the organization’s commitment to win. Maybe McDonough really is committed to doing what he said he was hired to do. Maybe Jim Hendry will do what he has been unable to do in the past. Maybe Lou Piniella is the right man to turn Hendry’s work into wins.

I don’t now if any of this is correct, but I’m willing to drink the Kool-Aid for now. Maybe I want the Cubs to win the World Series so bad that I’m willing to buy into this plan. Maybe all of the long years of frustration are blinding me to the reality of the situation. Or maybe this really is going to be the Cubs year. I guess only time will tell.

Piniella's the Man

2006-10-16T19:14:00.000-05:00

The Tribune is reporting that Lou Piniella will be the Cubs next manager. A press conference is scheduled for tomorrow. According to the Trib, the two parties agreed to a three year contract worth $10 million. An option for a fourth year would pay Piniella an additional $5 million.

Okay, so my boy Joe Girardi got the cold shoulder from the Cubs. Long term, I still think Girardi would have been the better choice. Even so, the hiring of Piniella has me excited. By hiring Piniella, the Cubs are making a statement that we want to win and we want to win now. You have to admit, that's better than business as usual.

The Trib article also alluded to the fact that team payroll will increase to about $115 million. That should give Hendry enough money to sign two FA starting pitchers and a FA power hitter. With the pitchers, I'm thinking of a top of the rotation guy like Jason Schmidt, although as I've explained previously, I expect Schmidt to go to Seattle. How about Jeff Suppan? He'd be a solid #2 behind Zambrano and would be significantly less expensive than Schmidt.

The other FA starting pitcher should be an innings eater. a guy who shows up for every start and pitches 6+ innings. Don't laugh, but I have my eyes on Greg Maddux and Jamie Moyer. Granted, both guys are nearly old enough to collect Social Security, but they show up every start and do their job. You could do worse for a bottom of the rotation guy.

Alfonso Soriano should be the power hitting FA. There's no way that the Cubs should get out bid for Soriano. If Soriano isn't a Cub next year, it had better be for a reason other than money (and a reason out of Hendry's control).

I'm hopeful that Piniella's presence will help make a trade or two happen. For instance, I have to believe that ARod is more likely to approve a trade to the Cubs now that Piniella is in place. Without Piniella, I seriously doubt if ARod would have had the Cubs at the top of his list.

It's great that Hendry found his new manager so quickly. Now he can turn his attention to re-signing ARAm, signing free agents and making trades.

Girardi is the Right Man for the Job

2006-10-15T19:03:00.000-05:00

As Rick Morrisey pointed out in his column this morning, Joe Girardi is relatively inexperienced when it comes to managing an MLB club. He spent two years as a bench coach for the Yankees and then one year as the manager of the Marlins.

Pinella, on the other hand, has much more management experience. He’s managed the Yankees, Reds, Mariners, and D-Rays. He’s taken the Reds and Mariners to the post-season and he won a World Series Championship with the Reds. There’s no doubt just based on experience, Lou Pinella gets the nod to be the Cubs next manager.

Even so, I’m still pulling for Girardi. He is a more level-headed kind of guy who will more easily weather the up and downs and twists and turns that come with being part of the Cubs. He’s younger, has more time to build his career, and knows first hand what it’s like to be both a Cubs fan and a Cubs player. Plus, even if the Cubs don’t spend another penny on payroll, Girardi will be inheriting a team with a payroll nearly six times larger than the job he just left. So Joe likely won’t have any complaints about the amount of money being spent to sign players.

Pinella, on the other hand, is in a position where he has to win now. He’s 63 years old and only wants to manage for a few more years. He sees this gig with the Cubs as potentially being his swan song. If he can win a WS with the Cubs, he can walk away from the game as a hero.

Don’t get me wrong. I love the idea of the Cubs winning now. But I’m concerned about what will happen when things don’t go quite right. What will Pinella do when Hendry fails to substantially improve the team or when the Trib Co. decides to cut payroll to make the team more attractive to potential buyers? Pinella doesn’t have the time nor the temperament to deal with these types of setbacks and disappointments.

I would be happy with either manager. In fact, I think Pinella might be in a better position to attract free agents. I also like the fact that Pinella is bilingual. But in the end, I still think Girardi is the best fit for the Cubs.

Five Easy Steps to Becoming an NL Central Contender

2006-10-15T09:04:00.000-05:00

Have you ever seen those self-help programs that promise you “Three Easy Steps to a Happier You” or “Seven Steps to Re-growing Your Hair?” You know the type of thing I’m talking about. The author takes a complicated problem, finds the (alledged) solution, and then reduces the solution down to just a few steps that anyone can do. This is my version of the oversimplified “how to” programs, but this one is aimed right at the Cubs.

Five Easy Steps to Becoming an NL Central Contender

Okay, if I really wanted to sell my plan, I’d promise a guaranteed World Series Championship. But let’s not get nuts. A winning record would be an immense improvement, so turning the Cubs into a contender is a tall order indeed. So let’s just build a contending team and then let fate take care of the rest.

To begin with, the Cubs need a new manager. They currently have two good ones vying for the job. Both Lou Pinella and Joe Girardi are good managers. The Cubs will be in good hands, provided Hendry doesn’t find a way to screw it up.

Steps two and three involve adding two starting pitchers. Jason Schmidt would be at the top of my list, but my guess is that the Cubs won’t be in the running for Schmidt. So where do they turn then? Zito and Matsuzaka would be the obvious choices, but just like Schmidt, the Cubs will probably not go after these FA.

For step two, Hendry can pick from a list of Adam Eaton, Andy Pettite, Ted Lilly, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, Jeff Suppan, Gil Meche, Tony Armas, Jr, Miguel Batista, and Mark Redman. Step three choices include Jamie Moyer, Greg Maddux, Tomo Ohka and Chan-Ho Park. These two new pitchers will be joining a rotation that could include Carlos Zambrano, Mark Prior, Rich Hill, Sean Marshall, and Angel Guzman. Other pitchers that might be available (depending on the exercise of options) include John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Mike Mussina.

A twist to steps two and three is trading for a starting pitcher. Possible candidates include Dontrelle Willis, Jason Jennings, Freddy Garcia, and Javier Vasquez.

Step four involves signing a FA power hitter. My choice is Alfonso Soriano. Personally, I’d like to see Soriano play center or right, but if he has to play left (or even second base), I’m okay with it. Other FA power hitters include Carlos Lee, Nomar Garciaparra, Moises Alou, Barry Bonds, Jim Edmonds, and Gary Sheffield. I’m not overly interested in any of these guys. Hendry should set his sights on Soriano and not stop until he gets him.

Finally, step five involves trading for a position player. Tops on my list is Alex Rodriguez. I’ve written extensively on the trade possibilities for ARod, so I won’t re-hash them here. Vernon Wells is another guy I’m written about trading for. Add Miguel Tejada to the list of trade candidates. Any of these trades would substantially improve the Cubs.

There you have it. Five easy steps to contend in the NL Central. It’s time to get started, so let’s get busy and start with step one.

Watch for Five Easy Steps to Becoming an NL Central Contender coming to an infomercial near you.

Get Over Your Crush, Jim

2006-10-15T09:02:00.000-05:00

Would someone please explain to me this man crush that Jim Hendry has for Bruce Bochy. Hendry is in a no-lose position by being able to choose between Lou Pinella and Joe Girardi to be the next Cubs manager. But Hendry isn’t satisfied. He has to try to screw up the situation by lusting after Bochy. Fortunately, it appears from published reports that officials at The Trib Co. have stepped in and denied Hendry permission to interview Bochy, saving Hendry from himself.

Cubs fans will gladly accept either Girardi or Pinella. Girardi is the new golden boy who holds the promise of bringing long-term success to the Cubs. Pinella is the proven leader with the win-right-now attitude. Both guys are popular choices among Cubs fans.

Hendry would be well advised to forget about the guy with the big noggin and just concentrate on Pinella and Girardi. Don’t screw up your first big off-season move, Jim. This is a no-brainer. Just flip a coin and let’s move forward.

What a Crazy, Mixed Up Story

2006-10-14T08:08:00.000-05:00

The on again/off again Bruce Bochy story is on again. Or is it off again?...Yesterday, the Padres announced that they have granted Bochy permission to talk ot other teams. It is rumored that both the Cubs and Giants have asked to interview Bochy...Meanwhile, the Sun-Times is reporting that the Cubs have agree in principle to hire Lou Pinella. The article indicates that the announcement of Pinell's hiring will be made after the NLCS. Thre sun-Times article went on to say that "higher ups" at the Trib Co. refused to let Hendry interview Bochy...At the same time, The Tribune is reporting that Bochy is still very much in the running. The article said that Trb officials are concerned that Pinella's price tag will be too high and Bochy is the more cost-effective alternative. Doubters believe that the Bochy story in the Trib is just a red herring to held moderate Pinella's contract demands...Where is Joe Girardi in all of this. The once front runner for the Cubs manager job had a second interview with the Nats. They are apparently very high on Girardi. It was also announced that Joe G. will be doing some TV for Fox during the World Series...Bob Brenly's name is not even being whispered anymore in relation to the Cubs job. Brenly interviewed with Hendry, but he is considered to be an extreme long shot to get the job. However, he is high on the list in Texas and still a viable candidate on San Francisco...The agent for Aramis Ramirez and Jim Hendry exchanged contract offers this past week. They are expected to talk again this weekend...No news on Juan Pierre. In this case, no news may really be good news.