Tuesday, July 25, 2006

The 2007 Chicago Cubs

So if the Cubs get all of the players I want them to add for 2007, this is what the team will look like:

LF Carlos Lee
CF Gary Matthews, Jr.
RF Jacques Jones
3B Miguel Cabrera
SS Alex Rodriguez
2B Ronny Cedeno
1B Derrick Lee
C Joe Mauer

The starting rotation will be:

Carlos Zambrano
Barry Zito
Mark Prior
Sean Marshall
Carlos Mármol

And the closer will be Eric Gagne

That would be quite a team, Of course, it’s never going to happen. All of these players will not be available, and if they were, it’s unlikely the Cubs could make the deals to bring them all on board.

So what is more realistic? By realistic I mean, what could the Cubs actually pull off? What could happen if Jim Hendry became bold, aggressive and creative? What could he accomplished if money wasn’t a consideration? What would the Cubs look like in 2007 if they took their rightful place as the “Big Dog” in the NL Central? If all of that were to happen, the Cubs could look like this:

LF Carlos Lee
CF Juan Pierre
RF Willy Mo Pena
3B Miguel Cabrera
SS Alex Rodríguez
2B Ronny Cedeno
1B Derrick Lee
C Michael Barret

Starting rotation:

Carlos Zambrano
Jason Schmidt
Mark Prior
Sean Marshall
Carlos Mármol

Closer – Troy Percival

How is this going to happen? Let’s take a look.

Carlos Lee will be signed as a free agent to fill left field. The Brewers would love to resign him, but in the end, CLee will be too expensive. Plus, the Brewers have a dearth of outfield talent. Maybe not as talented as CLee, but pretty talented at a much lower price.

In center field, there will be a lot of thought about not re-signing Pierre, but in the end he will be the best available option. Expect Gary Matthews, Jr. to re-sign in Texas.

Willy Mo Pena will acquired in an off-season trade with the Red Sox to play right field. The Cubs will give up prospects. Pena showed great potential in Cincinnati, but his stay in Boston has been less than stellar, including a stint on the DL. Boston will want to move Pena and the Cubs will need him to replace Jacques Jones.

Miguel Cabrera will be acquired in a trade with Florida to replace Aramis Ramirez. The trade could involve Matt Murton and Jerome Williams.

ARod will be obtained through a trade with the Yankees. The Yankees will get Aramis Ramirez and Jacques Jones. If the Cubs have to throw in someone else, it’s okay with me. ARod has not been a good fit in NY. Cubs fans will love him and he’ll be the new King of Chicago.

With ARod taking over at SS, Ronny Cedeno will move over to second. If Ronny can concentrate on his fielding, his weak hitting can be overlooked at second much easier than at short.

Derrick Lee will be back at first base. The Cubs will look forward to an injury-free year from DLee.

Joe Mauer may be the best catcher in baseball, but Michael Barrett is one of the better offensive backstops. His defense is improving, but it’s Barrett’s offense that will keep him in the lineup.

The Cubs will bring in Jason Schmidt as a free agent. They’ll miss out on Barry Zito, but Jason Schmidt may actually be the better choice. He’ll be a solid #2 starter.

Troy Percival will be signed as a free agent. He’s coming off of an injury that has kept him out of baseball in 2006, so this signing will be a bit risky. If it proves to be too risky, don’t be surprised to see Hendry go after FA Keith Foulke. He’s not closing any more, but he’ll be a free agent and he’s the type of project that Hendry likes.

There you have it. The blueprint for the 2007 Chicago Cubs. Of course, if this doesn’t happen, it’s Jim Hendry’s fault, not mine.

Sunday, July 23, 2006

Getting Closer and Closer

The Cubs need a closer. Ryan Dempster did a fine job in 2005, but I think just about everyone was waiting for things to fall apart. And to no ones surprise, things have fallen apart this year. Through July 20, Dempster has saved 16 games in 21 opportunities, has a 1-5 W/L record and a 4.43 ERA.

Of course, Dempster doesn’t deserve 100% of the blame. First, he’s not a closer; he’s one of Hendry’s projects. And second, he doesn’t pitch often enough to really get into a rhythm. The Cubs are rarely leading games in the 9th inning, so Dempster doesn’t see all that much action.

Dempster is not the guy the Cubs need closing games. They need a proven closer that can step in and get the job done without question and without fear that they will turn into another project gone awry. Here are some guys that could fit the bill:

Takashi Saito (LA Dodgers) – Right/Left, Age 36. Saito was signed in 2006. There is no information concerning the length or value of his contract. As of 7/18, Saito is 8/8 in save opportunities with the Dodgers. He has a 3-2 record with a 2.15 ERA. Discussion: Saito took over the closer role with the Dodgers after Eric Gagne went down to injury. If Gagne comes back in 2007 (which could be in doubt), Saito could be expendable. He’s old (for a ball player), but he’s still getting the job done.

Francisco Rodriguez (LAA Angels) – Right/Right, Age 24. Rodriguez is signed through 2006 and is arbitration eligible at the end of the season. He currently earns $3.775 million per year plus incentives. As of 7/22, Rodriguez has saved 24 out of 26 save opportunities. He is 0-2 with a 2.72 ERA. Discussion: I don’t know why the Angels would give up Rodriguez, but he would look good in Cubbie blue. He’s young, talented, and he gets the job done. What’s not to like about Rodriguez?

Brad Lidge (Houston Astros) – Right/Right, Age 29. Lidge is signed through 2006 and will be arbitration eligible at the end of the season. He currently earns $3.975 million per year. Lidge has converted 22 saves in 26 opportunities through 7/19/06. He has a 0-3 record with a 5.60 ERA. Discussion: Lidge is an interesting case. He is a proven closer who is struggling mightily in 2006. Reports out of Houston are that Astros GM Tim Purpura has given up on Lidge and may be willing to move him. Rumors also suggest that if Houston does not make the playoffs in 2007, they may start dumping salary and retooling in 2007. Lidge could be the answer to the Cubs closer woes, but he would be somewhat of a project. He’s proven himself in the past, but needs some help to get back to his past performance.

Dan Kolb (Milwaukee Brewers) – Right/Right, Age 31. Kolb is signed through the 2006 season and will become a free agent at the end of the season. He currently earns $2 million per year. As of 7/17/06, Kolb is 0/2 in save opportunities. He has a 2-2 record and a 5.87 ERA. Discussion: Once upon a time, Dan Kolb was a closer. Between 2003 and 2004, Kolb had 60 saves in 67 opportunities for the Brewers. In 2005, as a closer for the Braves, Kolb had 11 saves in 18 opportunities. The feeling after the 2005 season was that Kolb might add to the Brewers bullpen, but he wouldn’t be the closer. So could he be the Cubs closer in 2007? I don’t think so. Kolb’s days as a closer are probably over…or are they?

Jorge Julio (Arizona Diamondbacks) – Right/Right, Age 27. Julio is signed through 2006 and will become arbitration eligible at the end of the season. He currently earns $2.525 million per year. Through 7/22/06, Julio has 12 saves in 13 opportunities. He has a 1-3 record with an ERA of 3.15. Discussion: Julio is neither one of the best nor one of the worst closers in the game. He wouldn’t be my choice, but I’m afraid he’s the kind of guy that Jim Hendry would go after. He doesn’t have much of an upside, but he also is a fairly safe bet. He’d be an upgrade, but not by much.

J.J. Putz (Seattle Mariners) – Right/Right, Age 29. Putz is signed through 2006 and will become arbitration eligible at the end of the season. He currently earns $415,000 year. As of 7/22/06, Putz has 19 saves in 22 opportunities, a 1-0 record and a 2.33 ERA. Discussion: Putz is really kind of a sleeper. He is having a decent year, but is flying under the radar. Given the opportunity, Putz would be a nice addition to the Cubs. He appears solid, if not spectacular.

Troy Percival (Detroit Tigers) – Right/Right, age 36. Percival is signed through 2006 and will become a FA at the end of the year. He currently earns $6 million per year and is on the 60 day DL. He has not pitched in 2006. Discussion: Percival was scheduled to be the closer for Detroit before he became injured. He has 324 career saves (mostly with LAA Angels), a 30-41 record and 3.10 ERA. Of course the question is, can he still get the job done? Depending on the status of his injury, Percival could turn into another project for the Cubs.

Keith Foulke (Boston Red Sox) – Right/Right, Age 33. Foulke is signed through the end of the 2006 season, although there is an option for 2007. He currently earns $7.25 million per year. Foulke can exercise the option for $3.75 million per year or Boston can exercise the option for $7.5 million ($1.5 million buyout). Through 6/11/06, Foulke has no saves, no save opportunities, and a 2-1 record with a 5.63 ERA. He is currently on the 15 day DL. Discussion: Here’s another potential project. Foulke was once one of the top closers in the game. In his career, he has 190 saves. If he could regain his past glory, Foulke could be a tremendous acquisition. If not, he would be a drag on the bullpen.

Eric Gagne (LA Dodgers) – Right/Right, Age 30. Gagne is signed through the 2006 season with a club option for 2007. He currently earns $10 million per year. He will earn $12 million in 2007 if the Dodgers pick up his option ($1 million buyout). Gagne also has the option of voiding the 2007 option. In 2006, Gagne has 1 save in 1 opportunity. He has been out most of the year with an injury. Throughout his career, Gagne has an impressive 161 saves in 167 opportunities. Discussion: Rumors have it that Gagne was a steroid user and that the Dodgers may not pick up his option even if he is healthy in 2007. This could be an opportunity for the Cubs to pick up a top shelf closer, although he too could be a bit of a project.

Bob Wickman (Atlanta Braves) – Right/Right, Age 37. Wickman is signed through the 2006 season. He will be a FA at the end of the year. He currently earns $5 million per year. Through 7/19/06, Wickman has 15 saves in 18 opportunities, a 1-4 record and a 4.18 ERA with Cleveland and Atlanta. Discussion: Wickman is up in the years, but it’s hard to argue with his performance. And there’s no doubt that he would be an upgrade for the club. Not my first choice, but maybe Wickman would be a good choice for the Cubs.

John Smoltz (Atlanta Braves) -- Right/Right, Age 39. Smoltz is signed through 2006 with a club option for 2007. He currently earns $8 million per year and will make $8 million if the Barves pick up his option. As of 7/21/06, Smoltz is 7-5 with a 3.43 ERA. He is a starting pitcher at the moment, but during the 2003 and 2004 seasons he was one of the best closers in all of baseball. He had 89 saves in 98 opportunities. Discussion: John Smoltz was a great reliever once upon a time. He is currently 39 years old, but he is still one of the best starting pitchers in the game. Why not sign Smoltz as a FA? If he's willing to close, he could be worth every penny the Cubs pay him. If he wants to be a starter, his price may be too high for what he will likely bring to the team.

Discussion: There are no clear cut winners in this group. Francisco Rodriguez might be the best of the bunch, but it’s doubtful that the Angels would part company with him. Eric Gagne is an interesting possibility. If he recovers fully from his injury, and if the Dodgers decide not to pick up his option, Gagne could be the top closer available. Troy Percival is another guy that the Cubs will want to consider IF he comes back from his injury. Brad Lidge is a guy that could potentially be a steal, but how do you know who you’re going to get? The old Lidge or the new, underperforming Lidge? What about Smoltz? If he'll close, he may be the guy to go after.

As the GM, I choose:

1) Eric Gagne
2) Francisco Rodriguez
2a) John Smoltz
3) Troy Percival
3a) Takashi Saito
4) Brad Lidge

Probably more than any other position, choosing a closer is a crap shoot. There are lots of possibilities, and lots of risk. As a GM, you have to be bold and willing to take chances. Unfortunately, that is not Jim Hendry’s strong suit.

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Starting (Pitching) From the Beginning

For the past few years, the Cubs have been known for their starting pitching. Unfortunately, they have mostly been known for being injured. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior have spent enough time on the DL the past three years to fill a career. Both pitchers held great promise for the Cubs, but neither pitcher has realized that potential.

In 2007, the Cubs need to build a staff of starting pitchers that they can count on. What does that mean? Well, the Cubs need to stop depending on pitchers that they have every reason to believe are going to be unavailable due to injury. If Mark Prior returns, the Cubs need to have a very good contingency plan. If Kerry Wood returns, the Cubs need to assume that he will only be available in the bullpen (if at all). And if they do re-sign him, it should be for a minimum amount ($1 million) with incentives so his signing doesn’t prevent the signing of other players.

The Cubs starting rotation in 2007 will probably look something like this:

1) Carlos Zambrano
2) (New FA Signing)
3) Mark Prior
4) Sean Marshall
5) Carlos Marmol/Angel Guzman/Rich Hill

So the Cubs will need to add a top-of-the-rotation pitcher and a long relief pitcher that can step in for Mark Prior when/if he goes down to injury again. So who might these pitchers be? Here are a few starting pitchers that will likely be available after the 2006 season;

Barry Zito (Oakland Athletics)
Andy Pettitte (Houston Astros)
Tom Glavine (New York Mets)
Orlando Hernandez (New York Mets)
Jason Marquis (St. Louis Cardinals)
Mark Mulder (St. Louis Cardinals)
Jason Schmidt (San Francisco Giants)
John Smoltz (Atlanta Braves)

Discussion: Zito is probably going to be the hottest FA on the market. Pettitte’s stock is down a bit right now, but will still be in demand. Tom Glavine has had a terrific career and is making 2006 into one of his best. Orlando Hernandez has had his moments, but is 5-8 right now with an ERA over 5.00. Jason Marquis is 11-6 at the All-Star break, but his ERA has ballooned to 5.55. Mark Mulder is having a tough year and is on the DL right now, but he’ll have plenty of suitors. Jason Schmidt has put together a first half that features a 2.78 ERA. John Smoltz is 39 years old, but he is still getting it done.

All of these pitchers are going to be in demand, and for some reason that makes people think that the Cubs don’t stand a chance of signing any of them. Excuse my French, but balderdash. Not only should the Cubs be in the running for a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, but they should be considered frontrunners. More on that in a couple of days.

My top three choices for top-of-the-rotation FA pitcher are:

1) Barry Zito
2) Jason Schmidt
3) Andy Pettitte

Also, I think it would be worthwhile to consider John Smoltz as the Cubs closer. He’ll be expensive, but a good closer is worth it.

The list of #5 starters/long relief guys is long. However, I'm not sure it is necessary to get one in FA. As you may have noticed above, there will be three guys battling for the #5 starter position. Why not have one of the two guys who don't get the #5 starter job work out of the bullpen as a long reliever? Brillant!

Monday, July 10, 2006

Catch(er) as Catch(er) Can

Catcher is one of the toughest positions to fill. Do you go with a catcher that can hit or one with good defensive skills? Or do you get a guy that handles the pitching staff well? It doesn’t seem like there are any (or many) catchers out there that can do all three things well. It also seems like whatever type of catcher you have, another type always looks better.

The Cubs had Damian Miller, who does a good job behind the plate defensively and handles pitchers well, but the Cubs didn’t feel like his offensive numbers were good enough. So they traded him away and brought in Michael Barrett. Barrett is one of the better hitting catchers around, but he is not a particularly strong defensive catcher. Also, rumor has it that he does not handle the pitching staff very well.

Honestly, I don’t know what direction to go with a catcher. There are two guys I would love to have on the Cubs, but I don't think either of them will be available, except through some sort of miracle. These two catchers are Joe Mauer of the Twins and Victor Martinez of the Indians. Let’s take a long at their offensive numbers compared to Barrett.

Michael Barrett – Right/Right, Age 29. Barrett is signed through the 2007 season. He currently earns $3 million per year. Career offensive stats (through 2005 season): .267/.326/.427, 777 hits in 875 games, 79 HR, 351 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/9/06): .320/.390/.513, 73 hits in 66 games, 9 HR, 32 RBI. Discussion: While the rest of the team has spent the year in a slump, Barrett has been one of the very few bright spots. His offensive numbers are all above his career numbers. In his age 29 season, Barrett appears to be heading toward his best years.

Other back stops:

Joe Mauer (Minnesota Twins) – Right/Left, Age 23. Mauer is signed through the 2006 season. He currently earns $400,000 per year. He will not be a FA at the conclusion of the year due to his years of ML service. Career offensive stats (through 2005 season): .323/.369/.471, 285 hits in 242 games, 22 HR, 117 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/9/06): .378/.446/.535, 108 hits in 76 games, 7 HR, 45 RBI. Discussion: Mauer is realizing the potential the Twins saw in him when he was drafted. He is having a tremendous year and the future looks bright. However, there is a caveat. Catching is the most demanding position in baseball. Mauer is just one play-at-the-plate away from a serious, potentially career altering injury. That’s true of all catchers. So, while he looks like a lock to be a superstar, betting on the future career of a catcher is not smart business.

Victor Martinez (Cleveland Indians) – Right/Switch, Age 27. Martinez is signed through the 2009 season. He currently earns $800,000 per year. He is scheduled to earn $3 million in 2007, $4.25 million in 2008, and $5.7 million in 2009. The Indians have a club option for 2010 for $7 million. Career offensive stats (through 2005 season): .298/.368/.467, 468 hits in 432 games, 56 HR, 265 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/9/06): .316/.381/.486, 99 hits in 83 games, 11 HR, 56 RBI. Discussion: Martinez is the second best hitting catcher in the AL behind Mauer. Going into the All-Star break, he had hit .475 over the previous 10 games. There’s no doubt about it, Martinez is a stud. But it would take a miracle for him to ever end up a Cub.

Discussion: While I would rather have Joe Mauer than Michael Barrett, I recognize that Barrett is still a pretty good option. There are rumors floating around about a trade with the Blue Jays that would involve Barrett. I don’t know if the trade would bring Bengie Molina to the Cubs, but I can’t imagine that Toronto would want both Barrett and Molina. Between the two, I think I’d rather stick with Barrett.

My decree is:

1) Joe Mauer
2) Michael Barrett

Tuesday, July 04, 2006

First (Base) Things First

First base. This shouldn’t take long. The Cubs already have one of the best first basemen in the game. In fact, he is arguably the nest defensive first basemen in all of baseball and is the second best hitter behind only Albert Pujols. So why look for another first baseman?

Well, remember what happened when DLee went down to injury. The Cubs had to move a second baseman over to play first. The result wasn’t pretty and the Cubs should learn from the experience.

Rather than listing out the stats for all of the possible reserve first basemen the Cubs could add, let me just throw out a few names.

Mike Lamb (Houston Astros – Age 30)
Hee Seop Choi (Boston Red Sox – Age 27)
Doug Mientkiewicz (Kansas City Royals – Age 32)

All three players will be FAs at the conclusion of the 2006 season. Lamb is earning $1.7 million per year. Choi earns $725,000 per year. Mientkiewicz earns $1.85 million per year plus incentives.

Of the three players, Mike Lamb is probably the best hitter, followed closely by Mientkiewicz. Choi is the weakest hitter. Another arrow in Lamb’s quiver is that he can also play third base. Mientkiewicz and Choi are strictly first basemen.

Lamb and Choi are used to playing as reserves. Lamb is working hard for a starting position in Houston, but he has an uphill battle trying to unseat Lance Berkman. Mientkiewicz went to Kansas City so he could start and still believes he is a starter.
It might be difficult convincing him to back up DLee.

What about Kevin Millar (age 34), you ask? Well, I consider him more of a starter, although he’s having a sub-par 2006 and he’ll be a FA at the conclusion of the 2006 season. But since you mentioned Millar, it made me think of the Orioles back up first baseman, Jeff Conine. Conine is about 70 years old (actually 40) and is rumored to be retiring after the 2006 season. If he doesn’t, the Orioles have an option on him for the 2007 season which Conine can void if he gets 450 + plate appearances in 2006.

Throwing Millar and Conine into the mix, here’s how I’d go:

1) Mike Lamb
2) Doug Mientkiewicz or Kevin Millar
3) Jeff Conine
4) Hee Seop Choi

Remember, all of these guys would back up DLee and would likely be the DH for interleague games in AL ballparks. Being willing to be a back up DLee will be key to signing one of these guys

Second (Base) to None

At one point during this season, the Cubs had five second basemen on their roster. The ironic thing was that none of them were very good. Todd Walker can hit, but he’s not a very good fielder. Neifi Perez can field, but he doesn’t offer much at the plate. The other three didn't hit or field very well.

Todd Walker is the Cubs best 2nd baseman, yet Dusty Baker insisted on playing Neifi Perez much more than he deserved. Such has been the Cubs first half in 2006. The question now is, what about next year? Here are the options:

Todd Walker – Right/Left, Age 33. Walker is signed through the 2006 season and will become a FA at the end of the year. He currently earns $2.5 million per year. Career offensive stats (through 2005 season): .290/.349/.437, 1256 hits in 1209 games, 101 HR, 521 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/3/06): .289/ .361/.376, 76 hits in 77 games, 3 HR, 33 RBI. Discussion: Cubs fans will never admit it, but it was Walker who stepped up when Derrick Lee injured his wrist and spent time on the DL. Everyone thought it would be ARam, but he faded into the woodwork. Walker moved over to play first base in DLee’s absence and did a good job in the field and with the bat. Even so, Cubs fans have never really taken to Walker. Neither have Dusty Baker or Jim Hendry. I’ve never understood that. It appears Walker will be playing elsewhere in 2007 (or before).

Other options:

Brian Roberts (Baltimore Orioles) – Right/Switch, Age 28. Roberts will become a FA at the conclusion of the 2006 season. He currently earns $3.075 million per year plus incentives. Career offensive stats (through 2005 season): .282/.348/.403, 652 hits in 588 games, 31 HR, 228 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/3/06): .316/.380/.412, 79 hits in 62 games, 1 HR, 33 RBI. Discussion: Nothing against Brian Roberts, but what do you get with him that you couldn’t get from Ronny Cedeno at 2nd? Roberts might be a slightly better hitter, but he costs significantly more and he’s five years older. Let’s move Cedeno over to 2nd and see how things work.

Jorge Cantu (Tampa Bay Devil Rays) – Right/Right, Age 24. Cantu is signed through the 2006 season, but will not become a FA at the end of the year because he will not have enough ML service time (1.079 years). He currently earns $327,000 per year. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .288/.319/.478, 267 hits in 240 games, 34 HR, 160 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/3/06): .282/.326/.423, 44 hits in 40 games, 4 HR, 26 RBI. Discussion: Cantu is a cowboy, so I like him. His family owns an 8,645 acre ranch in Mexico and Cantu wants to work on the ranch full-time once he retires. Until then, he’s a very serviceable 2nd baseman. But is he better than Ronny Cedeno? If he is, he’s not significantly better. Again, I have to vote for Cedeno.

Mark Grudzielanek (Kansas City Royals) – Right/Right, Age 36. Grudzielanek is signed through the 2006 season with a vesting option for 2007. He currently earns $4 million per year and is scheduled to earn $3 million in 2007. Both years include incentives. Career offensive stats (through 2005 season): .287/.329/.391, 1695 hits in 1509 games, 77 HR, 527 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/3/06): .282/.319/.386, 84 hits in 73 games, 3 HR, 25 RBI. Discussion: Why can’t Grudz get any love? The guy played well for the Cubs and was rewarded by the club not picking up his option. He then went to St. Louis and played well, even helping them get to the WS, but he wasn't re-signed there either. He’s now in Kansas City, he’s playing well, and the Royals are rumored to be interested in trading him. What gives? In any case, Grudz brings a veteran presence to 2nd base, but there’s not a lot of upside with him. I like Grudz, but I think I’d still have to opt for Cedeno.

Discussion: I think Roberts, Cantu or Grudzielanek would all work well for the Cubs, but I don’t think any of them bring anything to the table that Ronny Cedeno doesn’t bring. Plus, Cedeno is a young, inexpensive player with a lot of upside.

If I were king, I would choose:

1) Ronny Cedeno
2) Jorge Cantu (I like his age)
3) Brian Roberts
4) Mark Grudzielanek

Any of these guys would do the job, but I think it would be good to have some youth at 2nd base to offset the veteran presence I am recommending at other positions.

A Day Late and a Dollar Short(stop)

Ronny Cedeno has done a decent job as the Cubs shortstop this year. But for a club like the Cubs, decent isn’t good enough, particularly at SS. In 2007, the Cubs need a SS that will be an impact player. Someone who will be a solid, even spectacular, defender. Someone who will make a difference with his bat.

If you’ve read my previous posts, please feign surprise at the conclusion I’m going to draw. If not, enjoy…

Here are the options:

Ronny Cedeno – Right/Right, Age 23. Cedeno is signed through 2006, but will not become a FA at the end of the season because of his lack of ML service. He currently earns $336,000 per year. Career offensive stats (through 2005 season): .276/.308/.362, 102 hits in 119 games, 3 HR, 27 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/3/06): .269/..295/.359, 78 hits in 78 games, 2 HR, 21 RBI. Discussion: I like Ronny Cedeno, but he is not the future of the Cubs at SS. However, I think he would be a good bottom of the order second baseman.

Other options:

Alex Rodriguez (New York Yankees) – See 3rd base post.

Julio Lugo (Tampa Bay Devil Rays) – Right/Right, Age 30. Lugo is signed through the 2006 season and will become a FA at the conclusion of the year. He currently earns $4.95 million per year. Career offensive stats (through 2005 season): .277/.341/.405, 878 hits in 852 games, 64 HR, 317 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/3/06): .294/.360/.472, 63 hits in 54 games, 8 HR, 18 RBI. Discussion: I consider Lugo a second tier SS. He is a level behind ARod, Derek Jeter and Miguel Tejada. Having said that, Lugo would be a step up from Cedeno. I’m opposed to the Cubs going after Lugo, but I’m afraid he might be Hendry’s kind of guy (i.e. not a big name, not too expensive).

Miguel Tejada (Baltimore Orioles) – Right/Right, Age 30. Tejada is signed through the 2009 season. He currently earns $10 million per year. He is scheduled to earn $12 million in 2007, $13 million in 2008 and $13 million in 2009, plus incentives during all years. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .282/.339/.480, 1477 hits in 1344 games, 233 HR, 910 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/3/06): .316/.366/.513, 107 hits in 84 games, 17 HR, 58 RBI. Discussion: Tejada asked to be traded during the past off-season, but he and the Orioles patched things up. Rumor has it that the peace in Baltimore is uneasy and Tejada could be on the trading block. I’ve made it clear that ARod is my guy, but if that can’t happen, Tejada would look good in Cubbie blue also.

Discussion: ARod is at the center of my proposed 2007 Cubs. It would be a huge coup if Hendry could trade for the Yankees’ third baseman and put him back at SS where he belongs. Tejada would be a nice second choice. But what about Ronny Cedeno? I don’t know. Maybe he can play second base, or be a reserve, or be used as trade bait. In any case, the Cubs need a new SS.

My choice:

1) Alex Rodriguez
2) Alex Rodriguez
3) Alex Rodriguez
4) Miguel Tejada

3rd (Base) and Five to Go

When Aramis Ramirez was acquired by the Cubs, fans thought that the team had finally gotten the third baseman they had sought since Ron Santo left the team in the ‘70s. From the day he joined the club in 2003, he gave Cub fans a reason to believe he was the real deal. But after a slow start in 2006, including a particularly bad stretch during Derrick Lee’s stint on the DL, the ARam love has soured a bit. Is ARam the answer at 3rd for the Cubs? What are the options? Let’s take a look:

The Cubs 3rd baseman:

Aramis Ramirez – Right/Right, Age 28. Ramirez is signed through the 2008 season, with a mutual option for 2009. However, his contract includes the right to void his contract after the 2006 season. He currently earns $10.5 million per year. He is scheduled to earn $11 million in 2007, $11.5 million in 2008, and $11 million in 2009. Career offensive stats (through 2005 season): .275/.327/.481, 992 hits in 969 games, 173 HR, 599 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/3/06): .255/.312/.477, 76 hits in 79 games, 15 HR, 49 RBI. Discussion: Regardless of his first half slump this year, ARam is still one of the better 3rd basemen in baseball. Even so, he may be more valuable as trade bait for the Cubs than as their 3rd baseman.

Other potential 3rd basemen:

Alex Rodriguez (New York Yankees): Right/Right, Age 30. Rodriguez is signed through the 2010 season. He currently earns $25 million per year. He is scheduled to earn $27 million per year from 2007-2010. He can opt out of his contract under certain circumstances after the 2007 season and has a full no-trade clause as well as incentives during all years. Career offensive stats (through the 2005 season): .306/.386/.575, 1985 hits in 1670 games, 448 HR, 1290 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/3/06): .285/.394/.522, 84 hits in 78 games, 19 HR, 64 RBI. Discussion: ARod is one of the best players in all of baseball. He is also one of the best shortstops, although he is currently playing 3rd base for the Yankees. Simply stated, ARod should be the centerpiece of the Cubs rebuilding program (and he should play SS).

Erik Chavez (Oakland A’s) – Right/Left, Age 28. Chavez is signed through the 2010 season, with a club option for 2011. He currently earns $9 million per year. He is scheduled to earn $9 million in 2007, $11 million in 2008-09, $12 million in 2010 and $12.5 million in 2011 if his option is picked up. Chavez has a limited no-trade clause that does not include the Cubs. Career offensive stats (through 2005 season): .273/.350/.494, 1088 hits in 1099 games, 204 HR, 690 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/3/06): .246/.358/.456, 62 hits in 70 games, 14 HR, 46 RBI. Discussion: Chavez is considered one of the better 3rd basemen in the game even though he is having a sub-par 2006. Considering his contract and the current make-up of the Cubs, Chavez probably would not be a good fit.

Jeff Cirillo (Milwaukee Brewers) – Right/Right, Age 36. Cirillo will become a FA at the conclusion of the 2006 season. He currently earns $850,000 plus incentives. Career offensive stats (through 2005 season): .297/.368/.433, 1500 hits in 1482 games, 109 HR, 688 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/3/06): .327/.397/.433, 34 hits in 54 games, 2 HR, 11 RBI. Discussion: Cirillo has been used as a journeyman infielder, but when he gets the chance to play, he does well. He might be the type of guy the Cubs need if they get the big name players I hope they’ll get at other positions.

Miguel Cabrera (Florida Marlins) – Right/Right, Age 23. Cabrera is signed through the 2006 season. He currently earns $472,000 per year. Career offensive stats (through 2005): .307/.377/.531, 558 hits in 484 games, 91 HR, 345 RBI. 2006 offensive stats (through 7/3/06): .344/.437/.573, 99 hits in 79 games, 13 HR, 55 RBI. Discussion: One day the rumor mill says the Marlins want to trade Cabrera because they won’t be able to afford to re-sign him. The next day, they say the Marlins need to keep him in order to improve their chances for a new stadium in South Florida. Cabrera would be a good fit in Chicago and would be the perfect compliment on the left side to ARod at SS.

Discussion: The Cubs need to make a splash with big name players in order to rebuild the team. They need players who have a good reputation and who can be recognized by even a casual fan. The Cubs need to be the “Big Dog” in the NL and they need to have big name players. Players like ARod and Miguel Cabrera would fill the bill nicely.

My choices:

1) Alex Rodriguez (SS)
2) Miguel Cabrera

Monday, July 03, 2006

Right (Field) Where We Belong

When Sammy Sosa vacated right field for the Cubs, he left a big hole, not only in the outfield, but more importantly in the batting order. The Cubs signed Jacques Jones as a FA in the off season to a three-year contract. The reviews were mixed on his signing, as were the reviews of his play early in the 2006 season. However, Jones has started to play up to expectations and the boo birds have quieted down in recent weeks.

Although Jones is signed through the 2008 season, there is no guarantee that he’ll be back to patrol right field (or left field for that matter). Here is the skinny on Jacques Jones as well as other who could potentially take his place:

Jacques Jones – Left/Left, Age 31. Jones is signed through the 2008 season. He is currently earning $3 million per year. He is scheduled to earn $4 million in 2007 and $5 million in 2008. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .281/.328/.530, 1056 hits in 1051 games, 146 HR, 519 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 7/2/06): .308/.338/.530, 82 hits in 75 games, 14 HR, 43 RBI. Discussion: Jones has really turned things around after a slow start to his 2006 season. Even so, many fans find it hard to cheer for him because of the poor season the Cubs have had. That’s probably unfair, but that’s reality. Don’t be surprised if Jones is used as trade bait, either at the trade deadline or during the off-season.

Other possibilities are:

Bobby Abreau (Philadelphia Phillies) – Right/Left, Age 32. Abreau is signed through the 2007 season with a club option for 2008. He is earning $13 million in 2006 and is scheduled to earn $15 million in 2007 and $16 million if his option is picked up in 2008. Abreau also has a full no-trade clause and incentives for all years. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .302/.413/.510, 1510 hits in 1408 games, 198 HR, 833 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 7/2/06): .290/.444/.472, 78 hits in 79 games, 8 HR, 57 RBI. Discussion: The Phillies have been shopping Abreau since this past off-season. They would like to spend the money earmarked for Abreau in other ways, but they have proven that they’re not willing to just dump his contract. The feeling is also that Abreau’s laid back style just doesn’t fit in with the Phillies new, more aggressive philosophy. There’s been a lot of talk about the Cubs getting Abreau, but I just don’t think it would be a great fit. I think the Cubs can do better than taking on a 32 year old Abreau with his rather large contract.

Brad Hawpe (Colorado Rockies) – Left/Left, Age 27. Contract information unavailable. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .278/.364/.467, 188 hits in 221 games, 27 HR, 103 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 7/2/06): .308/.395/.568, 15 HR, 47 RBI. Discussion: I couldn’t find the contract info for Hawpe, but his years of ML service (1.058 years) would indicate that he will not be a FA at the conclusion of the 2006 season. That means it would take a trade for the Cubs to acquire Hawpe. It’s not that Hawpe is a big name player, but he could be a solid acquisition if the Cubs also add a couple of big name players at other positions.

Wily Mo Pena (Boston Red Sox) – Right/Right, Age 24. Pena will become a FA at the conclusion of the 2006 season. He currently earns $1.25 million per year. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .257/.312/.478, 242 hits in 338 games, 55 HR, 155 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 7/2/06): .321/.370/.482, 36 hits in 36 games, 4 HR, 18 RBI. Discussion: Wily Mo was all the rage during the past off-season. Because of this, I expected his career offensive numbers to be better. Even so, just about everyone expects Pena to blossom into an all-star caliber player. He is currently on the DL in Boston and has kind of become the odd man out among their outfielders. Don’t expect Boston to make a big run to re-sign him at the end of 2006. This might be the Cubs chance to sign a young, promising right fielder.

Discussion: I don’t think there is any reason to dump Jacques Jones, but I wouldn’t mind seeing the Cubs use him to acquire another player. If they do and don’t get a respectable RF in the deal, Pena will be the guy to go after in the off-season. Another scenario would be to move Jones to left field (his arm is better suited to LF) and then bring in Pena (or maybe RF would be a good place for Felix Pie or Buck Coats).

My choices are:

1) Jacques Jones
2) Wily Mo Pena

Sunday, July 02, 2006

The Center (Field) of Attention

The Cubs thought they had filled center field and their lead-off position when they signed Juan Pierre. However, the fans quickly soured on Pierre when he had a slow start to the season. Pierre’s contract is up at the end of 2006, so the Cubs will have to decide if they want to re-sign him or look for another player to occupy center field in 2007.

Let’s compare Pierre to others who might be available:

The Cubs current center fielder:

Juan Pierre – Left/Left, Age 28. Pierre will become a FA at the conclusion of the 2006 season. He is currently earning $5.75 million per year. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .301/.350/.372, 1126 hits in 925 games, 10 HR, 259 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 7/1/06): .257/.307/.335, 86 hits in 80 games, 1 HR, 12 RBI. Discussion: Pierre had a horrible start to the season. He’s starting to come around, but will it be too little, too late? Pierre’s strength has always been getting on base and creating havoc once there. For his career, he has 292 stolen bases. This year he has 25 so far.

Other center fielders:

Alex Rios (Toronto Blue Jays) – Right/Right, Age 25. Rios is signed through 2006, but will not become a FA because he currently only has 1.13 years of ML service. He currently earns $354,000 per year. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .286/.335/.435, 337 hits in 329 games, 26 HR, 140 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 7/1/06): .330/.383/.585, 89 hits in 72 games, 15 HR, 53 RBI. Discussion: Rios is panning out to be a very good young player. So why would Toronto trade him away. The short answer is, they probably won’t. But what if the Blue Jays have a need that can be filled by a trade with the Cubs? It’s a long shot, but something to keep mind.

Brian Anderson (Chicago White Sox) – Right/Right, Age 24. Anderson is signed through 2006, but will not become a FA since he only has .041 years of ML service. He currently earns $330,000 per year. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .176/.256/.322, 35 hits in 75 games, 7 HR, 21 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 7/1/06): .176/.270/.309, 29 hits in 62 games, 5 HR, 18 RBI. Discussion: Anderson had great promise prior to coming to the big leagues, but he has struggled mightily since getting there. In fact, the Sox have started playing Rob Mackowiak in CF instead of Anderson recently. If the Sox have lost their patience with Anderson, perhaps the Cubs could get him in a trade. Of course, the question is, why would the Cubs want him? Remember, Anderson was a highly rated prospect. Perhaps he can reach his potential in a Cubs uniform.

Gary Matthews, Jr. (Texas Rangers) – Right/Switch, Age 31. Matthews will become a FA at the conclusion of the 2006 season. He currently earns $2.3875 million per year plus incentives. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .258/332/.412, 634 hits in 797 games, 67 HR, 277 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 7/1/06): .326/.375/.522, 95 hits in 69 games, 8 HR, 41 RBI. Discussion: Matthews appears to have come into his own in 2006. Reports are that he has changed his approach at the plate and it has paid off big. Matthews has a connection to the Cubs both because he played for them early in his career and because his father is a Cubs coach. Matthews could be a nice fit if he returns to the Cubs.

Torii Hunter (Minnesota Twins) – Right/Right, Age 31. Hunter is signed through 2006 with a club option for 2007. He earns $10.75 million this year, and will earn $12 million in 2007 if Minnesota picks up his option. Oddly enough, Hunter has a limited no-trade clause which include the Cubs. Recent reports indicate the Hunter would waive his no-trade clause if he were to be traded to the Cubs. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .267/.322.457, 968 hits in 1005 games, 146 HR, 554 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 7/1/06): .265/.342/.436, 77 hits in 78 games, 13 HR, 48 RBI. Discussion: Rumor has it that Minnesota would like to move Hunter in order to avoid having to make a decision on his 2007 option. Hunter is a perpetual highlight reel in CF and is part of one of the best fielding OFs in baseball. But Hunter is getting older (aren’t we all) and his rather average offensive numbers may start going south. He’s a big name player, but is he the guy the Cubs should put in CF?

Willy Taveras (Houston Astros) – Right/Right, Age 24. Taveras is signed through 2006, but will not become a FA because he only has 1.028 years of ML service. He is currently earning $400,000 per year. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .282/.321.334, 243 hits in 239 games, 3 HR, 47 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 7/1/06): .263/.315/.319, 71 hits in 77 games, 0 HR, 18 RBI. Discussion: If the Cubs were to trade for Taveras, they would be getting an okay average hitter with no power. Taveras does have some speed and has stolen 61 bases in a total of 316 games. He’s young and has some promise, but right now he’s still a question mark.

The Cubs have two players at AAA Iowa that could potentially be called up to take the spot in CF. They are:

Felix Pie – Left/Left, Age 21. 2006 offensive numbers at Iowa Cubs (AAA): .250/.318/.395, 76 hits in 79 games, 7 HR, 36 RBI. Discussion: For a prospect of Pie’s caliber, he really isn’t putting up particularly good numbers. Pie is young and needs more time in the minors to mature. He is a year (or two or three) away from being ready for the big leagues. Let’s hope the Cubs don’t move him up too soon.

Buck Coats – Right/Left, Age 24, 2006 offensive numbers at Iowa Cubs (AAA): .273/.337/.358, 74 hits in 74 games, 4 HR, 29 RBI. Discussion: Coats doesn’t get the hype that Pie gets, but he appears to be closer to being ready for the show than Pie. However, even Coats isn’t setting the world on fire at AAA. If the Cubs are going to look elsewhere for a CF next year, they need to look somewhere other than Iowa.

Discussion: Pierre hasn’t lived up to expectations, but from the other players examined, there aren’t too many guys out there who could be counted on to do a better job. If the Cubs are going to pass on re-signing Pierre, Gary Matthew, Jr would be the guy to go after. If a trade could be worked out with Toronto, Alex Rios would be a welcome addition to the Cubs. Otherwise, Pierre should be re-signed.

If I was GM, I'd sign:

1) Gary Matthews, Jr.
2) Alex Rios
3) Juan Pierre