Friday, June 30, 2006

Out in Left Field

I don’t think that anyone is arguing that the Cubs should stand pat. Certainly that’s not what I’m preaching. In fact, there seems to be a universal call for the Cubs to in the least bring in a couple of big bats, all the way to blowing up the team and starting from scratch.

I lean more toward this latter position, although I recognize that there’s no way the Cubs will (or should) get rid of everyone and trade for, sign or promote all new players. However, I don’t think that anyone on the team should be off limits for trades. If trading Carlos Zambrano or Derrick Lee (the two guys on the team you could build around) would make the team better, then I think they should be traded.

With this in mind, let’s look at some players that could improve the Cubs if they could be acquired by trade or FA signing. I’ve tried to only include players that could actually be acquired, but in some cases I’ve allowed my “wish list” to get the best of me. Let’s start this empty (but fun) exercise in left field.

Cubs current left fielder:

Matt Murton – Right/Right, age 24. Murton is signed through the 2006 season. He is currently earning $337,000 per year. Career offensive numbers (through the 2005 season): .286/.354/.422, 105 hits in 124 games, 11 HR, 35 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 6/30/06): .264/.333/.361, 60 hits in 73 games, 4 HR, 21 RBI. Discussion: I like Murton’s attitude. I cheered for him at the beginning of the year to prove that he could be the Cubs starting LF for years to come. I now recognize that Murton is cut out to be a 4th Of, not a starter. He doesn’t provide enough offense to be an everyday player. The Cubs need more production (and more power) out of their left fielder.

Other left fielders:

Alfonso Soriano (Washington Nationals) – Right/Right, age 30. Soriano will be a FA at the conclusion of the 2006 season. He is currently earning $10 million per year. Career offensive numbers (through the 2005 season): .279/.322/.504 (Avg/OBP/SLG), 1000 hits in 882 games, 186 HR, 516 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 6/30/06): .271/.336/.542, 88 hits in 80 games, 24 HR, 51 RBI. Discussion: Soriano is considered an offensive powerhouse, but a defensive liability. He currently plays left field for the Nationals, but prefers to play 2nd base. Soriano would be a welcome addition to the Cubs lineup, but he earns a lot of money for a guy who would make a poor defensive team even worse.

Brad Wilkerson (Texas Rangers) – Left/Left, age 29. Wilkerson will be a FA at the conclusion of the 2006 season. He is currently earning $3.9 million per year plus incentives. Career offensive numbers (through the 2005 season): .255/.362/.453, 638 hits in 722 games, 96 HR, 297 RBI. 2006 Offensive numbers (through 6/30/06): 241/.362/.453, 58 hits in 68 games, 13 HR, 32 RBI. Discussion: Wilkerson is solid, but not fantastic. He is well respected, but his numbers don’t indicate that he will do much to help the Cubs much offensively. I would prefer several LF’s before Wilkerson.

Carl Crawford (Tampa Bay Devil Rays) – Left/Left, age 25. Crawford is signed through 2008 season with a club option for 2009-10. He is scheduled to earn $2.5 million in 2006, $4.0 million in 2007, $5.25 million in 2008. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .290/.324/.427, 711 hits in 594 games, 43 HR, 257 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 6/30/06): .304/.350/.478, 88 hits in 72 games, 10 HR, 37 RBI. Discussion: Good offensive numbers, but not a lot of power. His power could develop as he matures. I’m not sure about his defense. Crawford is considered to have a very bright future ahead of him.

Carlos Lee (Milwaukee Brewers) – Right/Right, Age 30. Lee will be a FA at the conclusion of the 2006 season. He currently earns $8.5 million per year. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .284/.338/.495, 1206 hits in 1122 games, 209 HR, 730 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 6/30/06): .283/.347/.583, 85 hits in 80 games, 25 HR, 64 RBI. Discussion: This could be the guy. He will either be available at the trade deadline or as a FA in the off season. Lee will command a nice payday to sign in 2007. Milwaukee probably can’t afford him, but if they do trade him, they probably won’t want to trade him within the division. Lee is the guy the Cubs need, but they may never get a shot at him.

Jason Bay (Pittsburgh Pirates) – Right/Right, Age 27. Bay is signed through the 2009 season. He is scheduled to earn $750,000 in 2006, $3.25 million in 2007, 5.75 million in 2008, $7.5 million in 2009. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .293/.390/.552, 406 hits in 392 games, 82 HR, 254 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 6/30/06): .285/.401/.549, 82 hits in 80 games, 20 HR, 57 RBI. Discussion: If Lee is not available to the Cubs, then Hendry should turn his focus to trading with Pittsburgh for Bay. Pittsburgh isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, so they may be interested in trading for prospects to build their future team. After Bay’s contract is up, Pittsburgh likely won’t be able to afford him.

Matt Holliday (Colorado Rockies) – Right/Right, Age 26. Holliday will become a FA at the conclusion of the 2006 season. He currently earns $500,000 per year plus incentives. Career offensive numbers (through the 2005 season): .313/.366/.527, 368 hits in 322 games, 48 HR, 198 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 6/30/06): .352/.396/.614, 105 hits in 76 games, 15 HR, 54 RBI. Discussion: Who’s Matt Holliday? This might be the type of player Hendry would want to pursue. Good offensive numbers and he doesn’t earn much money. His numbers may be influenced by playing in Colorado, but still. Not everyone that plays in Colorado hits that good. I wonder what his power numbers will look like away from Coors?

Nick Swisher (Oakland A’s) – Left/Switch, Age 25. Swisher will become a FA at the conclusion of the 2006 season. He currently earns $335,000 per year. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .250/.348/.476, 201 hits in 228 games, 42 HR, 131 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 6/30/06): .274/.387/.537, 77 hits in 77 games, 19 HR, 49 RBI. Discussion: A young switch hitter with good offensive numbers, good power numbers, and he’s going to be a FA. I’ll go out on a limb and predict he’ll make a lot more money in 2007 than he does in 2006. Could this guy be a fixture in left field in Wrigley for the foreseeable future? Hmmm…

Pat Burrell (Philadelphia Phillies) – Right/Right, Age 29. Burrell is signed through the 2008 season. He is scheduled to earn $9.5 million in 2006, $13 million in 2007, and $14 million in 2008. All years include incentives plus a full no trade clause. Career offensive numbers (through 2005 season): .258/.359/.480, 852 hits in 920 games, 178 HR, 603 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 6/30/06): .252/.376/.534, 60 hits in 70 games, 19 HR, 54 RBI. Discussion: The Phillies want to move Burrell because he no longer fits in with their plans or philosophy. He’s a well respected player and a good clubhouse guy, but I’m not overly impressed. I think the Cubs can get more production without spending so much money.

Ryan Freel (Cincinnati Reds) – Right/Right, Age 30. Freel is signed through the 2007 season. He is scheduled to earn $1.3 million in 2006, and $1.7 million in 2007 plus incentives. Career offensive number (through 2005 season): .279/.371/.386, 350 hits in 365 games, 15 HR, 77 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 6/30/06): .294/.381/.430, 65 hits in 67 games, 4 HR, 13 RBI. Discussion: A lot of Cubs fans covet Ryan Freel. He is currently a 4th OF with the Reds. It would take a trade to get him and I doubt the Cubs have anything to offer at this time to get him. Of course, the Reds could use some more pitching, so you never know. Freel is a good clubhouse guy. He hustles and generally overachieves. I like guys like that, but I’m not sure Freel is the guy the Cubs need in left. I’d like to see someone with more power.

Shannon Stewart (Minnesota Twins) – Right/Right, Age 32. Stewart will become a FA at the conclusion of the 2006 season. He currently earns $6.5 million per year with incentives. Career offensive numbers (through the 2005 season): .300/.364/.439, 1435 hits in 1179 games, 102 HR, 514 RBI. 2006 offensive numbers (through 6/30/06): .298/.355/.376, 42 hits in 35 games, 2 HR, 17 RBI. Discussion: Could Shannon Stewart be the lead-off hitter the Cubs have been looking for? He hits for average, has some pop, and can run. One concern is that Stewart is already 32. Does he have a few more good years left or will his production fall off? He’s been on the DL for a good part of 2006, so it’s hard to figure out if he is continuing his winning ways or if his age is catching up with him.

If I was the GM, I’d go after:

1) Carlos Lee
2) Jason Bay
2) Carl Crawford
4) Nick Swisher
Dark Horse: Matt Holliday

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