Cubs Make Offer to Lilly

The Cubs have reportedly made an offer to FA pitcher Ted Lilly. The offer is reportedly for 4 years and $40 million. Southpaw Lilly pitched for the Blue Jays last year and is still coveted by his former team. The Yankees and Giants are also interested in Lilly, although the Yankees interest may have cooled since they won the bid to negotiate with Japanese LHP Kei Igawa.

Lilly was 15-13 with a 4.31 ERA in 2006 with Toronto. Lilly is known as a fly ball pitcher who is not an innings eater. He routinely hits the 100 pitch mark in the sixth inning and his effectiveness goes downhill fast from there. The bull pen better be ready to pitch on days Lilly starts.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not completely opposed to signing Lilly. The Cubs need pitching and Lilly is one of the few FA pitchers worth pursuing. But Jim Hendry is in a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation. The Cubs need two starting pitchers and there are very few FA pitchers worth pursuing. The market is demanding big dollar contracts, but I think most teams are reluctant to give what the market demands.

This reluctance even applies to Jason Schmidt, largely regarded as the most highly sought after FA pitcher on the market. Schmidt will likely demand $15 million per year or more for three or four years, but even he comes with large question marks. Schmidt’s fast ball has dropped in velocity rather significantly and he has a history of injuries.

So I can understand Hendry’s interest in Lilly. He’s not as good as Schmidt, but he’s pretty good and he’ll cost about $5 million per year less. Even so, I’m not thrilled with Lilly, especially if he is slotted in as the #2 starter. But as I said, the Cubs have to add someone, so who would I prefer?

I honestly can’t make a really strong case to sign someone other than Lilly, but there are a couple of guys I prefer. First on that list is Jeff Suppan. In previous posts, I referred to Suppan as the poor man’s Barry Zito. Suppan has good stuff and he’s an innings eater. But although his price tag may not be as high as Zito’s, he’s anything but cheap. Expect Suppan to sign for $10-$12 million per year.

Vicente Padilla is another guy I like better than Lilly. He’ll cost about the same as Lilly, has better stuff, and is more durable, although injuries have been a problem in the past for Padilla as well.

By this time next week, I expect the Cubs to have their two new starting pitchers. I think they’ll sign one FA (probably Lilly) and they’ll trade for another pitcher (probably Indians RHP Jake Westbrook, although Rockies RHP Jason Jennings is still a possibility). But no matter who the Cubs add to their rotation, it likely won’t please all Cubs fans. Of course, that’s the nature of the game…and the nature of being a Cubs fan.